As I have done in past years, I was planning on publishing a comprehensive NBA Finals preview. But as the Warriors enter their fourth consecutive title matchup against the Cavaliers as the largest Finals favorites in sixteen years, why should I bother? Cleveland was blown out by Golden State last year even with Kyrie Irving and a healthy Kevin Love playing alongside LeBron. Irving, of course, is now in Boston and Love (concussion) is questionable for Game 1.
I’ll give the Cavs one game out of respect for James, but after struggling this postseason against the likes of Indiana and an undermanned Boston team, Cleveland essentially has no chance against the mighty Warriors once again.
Fortunately, however, there are plenty of series prop bets to keep everyone interested! Without further ado, let me run through some of my favorites…
Series MVP
Favorites: Kevin Durant (-150) / Stephen Curry (+170) / LeBron James (+600)
James’ value is intriguing because even in the event Cleveland loses, there’s a chance that LeBron could still claim series MVP. After all, he came close in 2015 during the Cavs’ six-game defeat after averaging over 35 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists.
Nonetheless, the better bet for Finals MVP is on either Durant or Curry. It’s hard to argue against KD, who still managed to average 30.4 points per game against Houston despite having what some pundits deemed was a disappointing series for the four-time scoring champion. But given the fact that Curry has yet to claim the honor, I bet voters will be eager to name him this year’s recipient. The two-time MVP may be peaking at the right time too, as he shot over 40% from three-point range in four of Golden State’s final five games against the Rockets.
Pick: Curry (+170)
Additional Bets
Will LeBron James record a triple-double?
James has had one triple-double in each round of this year’s postseason and he has come close on many other occasions, such as Games 6 & 7 against Boston (he was one assist shy in both contests). Given how LeBron will once again be almost single-handily responsible for making this a competitive series, my money is on at least triple-double from the King.
Pick: Yes (-285)
J.R. Smith over/under 9.5 points per game in series
Yes, Smith is erratic. Well, erratic may be putting it lightly with respect to this postseason because Smith has been terrible. But J.R, who has averaged 11.3 points per game in his Finals career, tends to raise his level of play in big moments. Last year, for instance, his points per game average went up 78% in the Finals after posting only 6.6 per game in the first three rounds of the playoffs. I bet the same thing happens this year.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Golden State over/under 112.5 points per game in series
On paper, the Warriors top-ranked offense should have a field day against the Cavaliers’ mediocre defense. I’m a little worried that 112.5 is too high of a number, but I’ll hammer the over anyway.
Pick: Over 112.5 (-120)
Series correct score
Cleveland’s only chance is to hope LeBron can take advantage of Andre Iguodala’s absence and facilitate easy scoring opportunities for the likes of Jeff Green, Kyle Korver, and J.R. Smith. Yet even if the Cavaliers manage to have success offensively, how will they account for Durant, Curry, and Klay Thompson?
Short answer: they won’t. As I said earlier, I’ll give the Cavs one game out of respect for LeBron. But even the most valuable player in NBA history won’t prevent one of the NBA’s greatest teams from winning its third title in four years.
Pick: Warriors 4-1 (+160)
