Looking for an extra edge in fantasy? Here are five undervalued players who I think could provide terrific value if inserted consistently into daily fantasy lineups.
Andrew Benintendi, OF Boston .283 avg / .489 slugging / .860 OPS
Take note of the young outfielder’s home/away splits. On the road, Benintendi is hitting just .202 with 2 home runs in 94 at bats. At Fenway, though, Benintendi transforms into one of the better hitters in baseball, as he has the 4th best home batting average in the league (.367) along with a .656 slugging percentage (9th).
Daily fantasy sites, however, seem to have already accounted for this trend: on May 27th, for instance, Benintendi was valued at $5,100 ahead of Boston’s home game against Atlanta. But there are still opportunities to pick the Boston left fielder up at a discount, especially when the Red Sox are on the road. Main reason why: Benintendi’s BABIP away from Fenway is just .246 — far below his mark at home (.377).
In short, his road numbers are likely to catch up to his sensational home stats in due time. It is possible, however, that Benintendi’s Fenway numbers could regress as well, making his daily fantasy value on the road much higher than it is at home. It may help, therefore, to check pitching matchups as well. After all, Benintendi is slugging .528 against righties compared to only .357 against lefties.
Kyle Seager, 3B Seattle .219 avg / .408 slugging / .686 OPS
The Mariners third basemen is having a tough time of late, as he is hitting just .132 over the past 14 days. Coincidentally, however, his BABIP over this same time is also .132. But I would attribute this more to bad luck because Seager’s hard-hit percentage (i.e. Hard%) has risen over the past two weeks to 47.5% (27th in baseball). In other words, Seager is consistently making solid contact, so he should see a significant rise in his batting average over the next month. And at an average fantasy value of only $3,500, Seager is one of the best buy-low candidates among infielders.
Wilson Ramos, C Tampa Bay .305 avg / .464 slugging / .807 OPS
Solid hitting catchers are hard to come by, but Tampa Bay’s Ramos is quietly one of the best. For as low as $3,300 (13th among starting catchers), Ramos is a steal — and this is particularly true when the Rays play at home, where the thirty-year-old is hitting .348 (2nd among catchers) with a .381 OPS (7th among catchers).
Jon Gray, SP Colorado 5.40 ERA / 3.15 FIP
After going 10-4 last season with a 3.67 ERA, Gray has not been as effective this season for Colorado. However, his early struggles have been deceptive because the hard-throwing Gray remains one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball (10.36 K/9 innings, 15th in Majors) while being extremely unlucky with respect to batted ball luck (.368 BABIP).
Yet based on his over two-run discrepancy between his ERA and FIP, Gray is an underrated bounce-back candidate. Just take your chances on him when the Rockies are playing on the road, as Gray’s home ERA at hitter-friendly Coors Field is north of 6.
Dylan Bundy, SP Baltimore 4.45 ERA / 4.65 FIP
Don’t lose faith in Bundy after one horrific outing (he became the first player in MLB history three weeks ago by allowing four home runs without recording an out). Bundy still profiles as a solid pitcher as evidenced by his terrific K/9 ratio (11.06, 9th in baseball). He also has pitched well in his three starts since making the wrong kind of history, going 2-1 with an ERA of 2.86.
Assuming Bundy’s HR rate continues to come back down to earth, which is likely considering his xFIP, which adjusts for standard home run luck, is a respectable 3.86, Bundy is another starter who can be attained cheaply while providing above-average production.
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