On Saturday afternoon in Kiev, Real Madrid will look to claim its fourth Champions League title in five years (and third in a row) against Liverpool, a surprise finalist that is making its first appearance in the Final since 2005. Yet the Reds certainly are not a huge underdog. In fact, Fivethirtyeight’s Soccer Power Index is giving Jurgen Klopp’s squad a 47% chance of unseating Cristiano Ronaldo and company.
Yet no matter which side hoists the trophy come game’s end, prop bet opportunities abound in the world’s biggest club soccer match. So before making my prediction as to who will win this contest, let me run through some of my favorite prop bets for this year’s title match (all odds courtesy of Bovada).
Prop Bet #1: Over 3.5 goals (+120)
Liverpool scores. Led by Egyptian sensation Mohamed Salah, whose 32 goals earned him Premier League player of the year honors this season, Liverpool finished with the second most goals in the PL. The only problem, however, is that the Reds are shaky on defense. Against AS Roma, for instance, they allowed 6 goals across the two semifinal legs (albeit in a winning effort). That sort of defensive performance could be problematic against Real Madrid given the Spanish side’s plethora of offensive talent.
But the same can also be said for Real Madrid. In the semifinal stage, for example, Bayern Munich finished with an expected goal measure of 6.9, suggesting that Real Madrid was lucky to allow only 3 goals in order to advance to the Final. Los Blancos also have only registered one clean sheet in their past eleven games.
In short, I’m expecting a lot of goals tomorrow afternoon, so I’m hammering the over.
Prop Bet #2: Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime (-140)
Speaking of goals, it’s hard to imagine Ronaldo going a third consecutive Champions League game without a goal. After all, he has averaged nearly a goal per game this season.
Prop Bets #3 and #4: Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino (+175) and Liverpool’s Sadio Mane (+200) to score anytime
I could picture Real Madrid focusing its defensive attention on containing Salah, which is why I like both Firmino and Mane’s value to score, particularly since the two forwards essentially have as many goals (10 and 9, respectively) as Salah (10) in Champions League competition.
Prop Bet #5: Correct Score Group — Draw 1-1, 2-2, or 3-3 (+325)
Based on the first four prop bets, it’s clear that I think this game will be high-scoring. I also expect it to be tightly contested. Liverpool is no pushover, for starters, as evidenced by how it easily disposed a heavily-favored Manchester City side in the quarterfinal. More importantly, though, Real Madrid has not exactly been dominant of late. It has just one victory in its last five matches — and one could certainly argue that Ronaldo and Co. caught a break by receiving that late penalty to escape Juventus in the quarterfinal.
Additionally, I love the value of this prop bet because it allows me to partially hedge my first prop bet in the event that the game is lower scoring than I anticipate.
Prop Bets #6 and #7: Real Madrid to win in shootout (+1400) and Liverpool to win in shootout (+1400)
Since I expect the game to be close, it’s possible that this game goes to a shootout. That’s why the value on either Real Madrid and Liverpool stands out. So my plan is to place some money on both sides. In other words, by placing $10 on Real Madrid and Liverpool, I will profit $130 as long as this game goes beyond extra time.
Prediction: Real Madrid (-165)
So who do I think will ultimately win? I can’t side against my favorite Spanish club. Cristiano Ronaldo is clearly the best player on the pitch, and it’s clear that Real Madrid is more talented in many other areas as well. With reigning UEFA defender of the year award winner Sergio Ramos and reigning UEFA midfielder of the year Luka Modric, Liverpool will be hard pressed to outplay Real Madrid for over 90 minutes, as I like Ronaldo to break a 2-2 draw in extra time, giving the Portuguese superstar an unprecedented fifth Champions League title.
