So this finally may be the year for Alex Ovechkin and company. As I predicted, the Washington Capitals marched into Tampa Bay last night and defeated the top-seeded Lightning, advancing to their first Stanley Cup Final since 1998 where they’ll meet the Vegas Golden Knights, who…well, we all know their story.
There are many things to love about this matchup: a Capitals team hoping to erase years of misery for its Washington faithful; an expansion team with 500-1 preseason odds to win the title looking to cap off one of the most remarkable seasons in sports history; Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s second most marketable star after Sidney Crosby, making his long-awaited Finals appearance; a city — Vegas — getting its first taste of sporting success; east coast vs west coast; major market vs emerging market. Man, they must be doing cartwheels at NHL headquarters!
Another great storyline is that no matter which team wins, it will be the first championship in either franchise’s history (no surprise, of course, with respect to Vegas). And according to the oddsmakers, the team most likely to hoist its first Stanley Cup is the Golden Knights, who have opened at -130 to win the series on Bovada.
This is hardly a surprise. Vegas is excellent defensively, as head coach Gerard Gallant’s squad leads the postseason in goals against per game among teams who have advanced at least one round (1.80). The next closest team, for the record, is Winnipeg (2.47), so clearly the Golden Knights have been far and away the stingiest team this spring.
While Vegas’ underrated first-line defensive pair of Brayden McNabb and Nate Schmidt deserves credit, the most obvious explanation for the Golden Knights’ success defensively is netminder Marc-Andre Fleury. The three-time Stanley Cup champion has been sensational this postseason: in fact, he is on pace to finish with the highest save percentage (.947) among playoff goaltenders who advanced at least one round in the playoffs since 2000.
Since reclaiming his starting job early in the Capitals’ first round series against Columbus, Washington goalie Brayden Holtby has been comparable to Fleury, though. He’s sporting just a 2.04 GAA and his record of 12-6 (.667) is the best of his postseason career. Yet Holtby is only one reason why the Capitals will give the Golden Knights trouble. Washington’s offense has been terrific of late, as it’s averaging 3.47 goals per game this postseason. Vegas, in contrast, has averaged 2.87 per game, which might not bode well for them considering how the Capitals’ defense held the prolific Penguins to no more than 3 goals in each of their six games during the Conference Semifinals. Most recently, Washington also did not allow a single goal to the Lightning in Games 6 & 7 of the Conference Final.
Another trend to take note of: the Capitals are a staggering 8-2 on the road this postseason (and 9-1 against the spread!). Particularly given Vegas’ tendency to play in low-scoring games, I don’t expect Washington to have trouble grabbing at least one game at T-Mobile Arena before the series heads to the nation’s capital. This does not mean, however, that I am expecting the Caps to dictate this series. After all, Vegas (12-3, +16 goal differential) has easily disposed every team it has played this postseason, including Winnipeg, who was the only club in the NHL this regular season to rank in the top five of goals and goals against per game.
Nonetheless, my betting strategy in this series is to consistently side with the puck line underdogs, meaning I will likely pick the road team to cover the spread in each game. And if I make any complementary money-line bets, I will also side with road underdogs such as the Capitals (+120 money-line in Game 1).
Yet while it may sound like I will mostly be backing the Capitals on a game-by-game basis, I actually think the superior value with respect to who will win the series outright lies with the Golden Knights. Simply put, defense wins in the playoffs — and with Fleury performing better than nearly every other goalie in recent memory this postseason, I think Vegas will do enough defensively to contain Ovechkin and company in order to become the first franchise ever to miraculously win a title in its expansion season.
Series Prediction: Vegas (-130) over Washington in Six
