Game 7’s in the NHL playoffs offer extraordinarily profitable betting opportunities. All you have to do is this: bet on the underdog.
Here’s why. First, since the 2004-05 lockout, there have been 55 Game 7’s played in the NHL postseason. And in those 55 games, the underdog — or, to be specific, the team with a puck line of +1.5 — has covered the spread in 46 of those contests. In other words, by betting on Game 7 underdog’s to cover the spread in every one of these situations since 2006, you would have made money roughly 84% of the time.
There is one factor to keep in mind, however. The “juice” on underdogs with the spread in Game 7’s — like the Capitals are tonight against the Lightning — is usually relatively high, meaning that in order to win $100 by betting on Washington (-240 with the spread tonight), you would need to wager $240. Simply put, it would not be enough for Game 7 underdogs to cover the spread only, say, 60% of the time. They need to cover at a far higher rate to be consistently profitable.
Fortunately they do. Take the last five Game 7’s to occur since last postseason, for instance:
- ’17 Conference Semifinals: Pittsburgh (+1.5, -200) vs Washington Result: PIT 2 WSH 0
- ’17 Conference Semifinals: Edmonton (+1.5, -280) vs Anaheim Result: ANA 2 EDM 1
- ’17 Conference Finals: Ottawa (+1.5, -170) vs Pittsburgh Result: PIT 3 OTT 2 (2OT)
- ’18 Conference Quarterfinals: Toronto (-180) vs Boston Result: BOS 7 TOR 4
- ’18 Conference Semifinals: Winnipeg (-220) vs Nashville Result: WPG 5 NSH 1
As you can see, underdogs have covered the spread in four of the previous five Game 7’s — good for a profit of +2.20 units (or $220, if wagering to win $100 on each game).
Moreover, take note of how two of these five underdogs also won straight up. In fact, road teams in Game 7’s since 2006 are 28-29 (.491); and while that may not seem like a noteworthy record, it actually means that they have been profitable by virtue of underdogs receiving an average moneyline of approximately +130 in these games. A moneyline of +130, in other words, implies that the average Game 7 underdog will win only 43.48% of the time, based on Odd Shark’s odds converter. Yet by simply winning at a rate close to 50%, straight up underdogs like Winnipeg, who handily defeated the reigning Western Conference champion Predators in a Game 7 two weeks ago, represent another profitable opportunity as well.
Another reason why it is smart to take underdogs in Game 7’s: fewer goals. 35 of the previous 55 Game 7’s have gone under 5.5 goals (.636) — and since many of these winner-take-all games are hotly contested no matter the round, it’s logical, in turn, to say that if it is unlikely that more than 5 goals will be scored, it is also likely that the underdog will naturally keep the game within the +1.5 puck line (after all, it is rare to see a Game 7 decided by, say, a 4-1 margin).
One explanation of this Game 7 trend is how officials tend to put away the whistles. Anecdotal examples abound, such as last year’s Game 7 between Anaheim and Edmonton in which each team only received one power play. My favorite example, however, is Game 7 of the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Tampa Bay, where not a single penalty was called.
So how will I apply all of this information for tonight’s contest between Tampa Bay and Washington? Very simple…
Bet #1: Washington (+1.5, -240) over Tampa Bay $48 to win $20
Bet #2: Washington (+125) over Tampa Bay $8 to win $10
Bet #3: Under 5.5 goals (-125) $12.50 to win $10
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