The most compelling moments of the 2018 NBA season will likely take place over the next week. After the Houston Rockets surprisingly overcame an early 12-0 deficit to defeat Golden State at Oracle Arena last night, both Conference Finals are now tied at two games apiece. And with Game 5 between the Celtics and Cavaliers set to take place tonight, here are my predictions for how each of these matchups will ultimately play out.
Game 5: Cavaliers vs Celtics (-0.5) Wednesday 8:30 ET
One of the most popular narratives of these playoffs is how well Boston has played at home (9-0, +11.3 points differential per game). And if the Celtics want any chance to win this series, they must hold serve once again at the TD Garden. I think they will: Cleveland has still been overly reliant on LeBron James, as only one other supporting Cavalier (Kevin Love) has scored over 18 points in a single game this series. The Celtics, in contrast, have had five players drop over 18 points in at least one game, which is a testament to their scoring depth.
With such a disparity in supporting casts, I’ll take Boston’s defense to do enough to contain LeBron in Game 5.
Pick: Boston
Game 5: Warriors vs Rockets (-1) Thursday 9:00 ET
Similar to the Celtics, I have a hard time picturing the Rockets losing Game 5 at the Toyota Center and subsequently reclaiming home court with a Game 6 victory in Oakland. For that reason, I expect a sense of urgency from Houston similar to what we saw on Tuesday night. More importantly, though, the Warriors project to be shorthanded once again with Andre Iguodala (leg injury) questionable to return — and that’s a problem because without Iguodala in Game 4, Golden State received only 16 points and a -32 combined rating from all players outside of Curry, Durant, Thompson, and Green.
Pick: Houston
Game 6: Celtics vs Cavaliers Friday 8:30 ET
Pundits like Stephen A. Smith are already calling Game 5 a “must-win” for LeBron James and the Cavs. Well, if the Celtics win on Wednesday night, then Friday’s game will truly be a contest that LeBron and company need to win. And since they’ll be back in Cleveland, I think the Cavs will once again overwhelm a relatively inexperienced Celtics team on their home court.
Pick: Cleveland
Game 6: Rockets vs Warriors Saturday 9:00 ET
I picked Houston to win this series beforehand (hell, I’ve had the Rockets going to the Finals since February). But the Warriors won’t drop a second consecutive game at home to end their season, right?
Pick: Golden State
Game 7: Cavaliers vs Celtics Sunday 8:30 ET
Here’s my theory about playoff Game 7’s: when in doubt, side with the best player on the floor. And in this hypothetical case, that player is clearly LeBron James. However…the Celtics are deeper then the Cavs; they play far better defense; and they have the coaching advantage. Those three differentiators are enough for me to tilt the series in Boston’s favor (plus, I don’t want to abandon my pick from before the series).
Pick: Boston
Game 7: Warriors vs Rockets Monday 9:00 ET
I’ll go down with the ship, if need be. I’ve been high on Houston ever since I realized that this team was nearly unbeatable with James Harden, Chris Paul, and Clint Capela all healthy. I also have said previously that the Rockets would at least have a chance to knock off the mighty Warriors because they seized home court throughout the playoffs thanks to their 65-win regular season. With enough offensive firepower to match Golden State, I’ll take a more desperate Houston side to do what many pundits thought was unthinkable before the season began: knock off the Warriors and march on to the NBA Finals.
Pick: Houston
