Overcoming improbable odds has been the primary theme across the sports world in 2018. Just last week, the Vegas Golden Knights, who entered the year with odds as low as 500-1 to win the Stanley Cup, became the first expansion team ever to earn a trip to the championship round. Back in March, Loyola Chicago became only the fourth 11th seed to make the Final Four — yet that was arguably not as impressive as 16th seeded University of Maryland Baltimore County’s historic victory over top seeded Virginia in the same tournament. And you can even include the Philadelphia Eagles in this conversation after they marched through the NFC playoffs and defeated the New England Patriots despite losing their star quarterback.
Baseball’s early surprise story, meanwhile, is undoubtedly the Atlanta Braves. After losing over 90 games for the third consecutive year, the 2018 season projected to be another rebuilding year for the once proud franchise, as evidenced by how Vegas forecasted them to finish with just 75 wins.
Yet despite having 200-1 odds to win the World Series in late March, the Braves (29-18, as of May 23rd) are currently on pace to win 98 games. And with the best record in the National League, Atlanta now sits atop ESPN’s latest power rankings among NL teams.
But the question is this: are the Braves actually the team to beat in the NL? I’ll go with a hard no — and it simply comes down to pitching.
For a team that is winning over 60% of its games, Atlanta’s starting staff is surprisingly weak. Only one starter — Sean Newcomb — ranks in the top 30 in WAR; and just two starters — Newcomb and Mike Foltynewicz — rank in the top 50. And though both Newcomb and Foltynewicz are currently sporting ERA’s under 3 (2.39 and 2.72, respectively), each of their xFIP’s (3.67 and 3.84) suggest that their adjusted ERA’s should be closer to 4 when accounting for normal batted ball and home run luck. This does not come as a surprise either because Atlanta’s top two starters also allow over 4 walks per nine innings, which ranks 8th and 13th highest among qualified starters in the majors.
The Braves’ bullpen is also in a similar predicament. Though their ERA is respectable (3.55), Atlanta’s relievers also walk far too many batters (4.93 per nine innings, 1st in MLB). More importantly, however, the Braves have been relying on the lowest home run/fly ball ratio in baseball (7.9%), a mark that is both unsustainable and a significant contributor to their bullpen’s xFIP of 4.39. In other words, Atlanta’s relievers are also due for a regression.
Thus, the Braves will have to continue relying on their offense, which leads the National League in runs per game, in order to overcome their relatively poor pitching. This isn’t necessarily out of the question: the Braves have two hitters — second basemen Ozzie Albies and first basemen Freddie Freeman — that rank in the top fifteen in slugging percentage, for instance. And with the help of top prospect Ronald Acuna Jr, who was recently promoted to the bigs, it’s hard to imagine Atlanta’s offense reverting back to its preseason expectations.
For this reason, baseball’s biggest surprise story isn’t a fluke — and Braves fans should undoubtedly be ecstatic about the possibility of a playoff appearance. But lost amid Atlanta’s terrific start is the reality that it likely won’t continue to outplay teams like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Cubs with such a weak pitching staff unless new general manager Alex Anthopoulos makes a noteworthy move (or two) near the trade deadline. So even with 16/1 odds to win the World Series according to Vegas Insider (t-7th in baseball), the Braves remain a hard pass with respect to their betting chances to actually claim the title come October.
