On the eve of Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, let me first state the obvious: LeBron James will return to his outstanding self. For starters, things can’t really get much worse for LeBron after his 5-16 shooting (.313), 7 turnover performance in Cleveland’s listless Game 1 loss to the Celtics.
Then again, such performances from the best player on the planet come few and far between — especially in recent years, as James has averaged over 30 points and 9 rebounds over the past two postseasons. But on the rare occasion that James has a “terrible” playoff game (after all, he still came close to compiling a triple-double last Sunday), he has always responded with a commanding performance. In the past ten years, there have been 21 instances in which James has either been held to less than 15 points or his team has lost by at least 15 points in a playoff game. And in those 21 games following such subpar performances, James has averaged 32.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists.
So you can essentially bank on two things happening in Game 2: LeBron will average a double-double and, as evidenced by his relatively low assist total following blowout playoff losses (his average over the past two years, for instance, is 8.9 per game), he will look to take over the game himself.
But even if LeBron responds with another signature performance, it still might not be enough for Cleveland to win. First, LeBron’s teams are just 12-9 in those 21 aforementioned games following a blowout playoff loss and/or a poor scoring performance from LeBron. More importantly, though, the Cavaliers’ poor defense (29th in the regular season in defensive efficiency) was exposed in Game 1. Four of Cleveland’s five starters, for instance, had defensive ratings north of 113 points per 100 possessions.
That’s abysmal — and there’s little reason to think that the Cavs will miraculously find a way to slow down the likes of Jaylen Brown (9-16 FG% in Game 1) and Al Horford (8-10 FG%), each of whom had a field day working the pick and roll in the first quarter of last Sunday’s game, combining for 25 of the Celtics’ 36 points in the period. There was simply no resistance from Kevin Love (80% opponent field goal percentage in the first quarter) and Kyle Korver (9 points allowed when guarding Brown in the quarter), two players the Cavs desperately rely on for their offensive abilities but provide little help defensively, as Boston closed the quarter by scoring on a staggering 13 of their final 16 possessions.
What’s the solution for Tyronn Lue and the Cavs? It’s obvious: hope LeBron leads the way to victory! But I don’t think that alone will be enough to prevent Boston from taking a 2-0 series lead. James will get his: I’ll bet over 32.5 (-110) for his final point total and will take a chance that he can also collect a triple-double (+225, according to Bovada). But with the Celtics as just one point favorites, I like Brad Stevens to design another smart game plan that will allow Horford, Brown, and company to continue to exploit the Cavaliers’ defense.
Prediction: Celtics (-1) over Cavaliers
