There are certain modern athletes who you should rarely bet against — if ever. Tom Brady and Serena Williams immediately come to mind; and though they are no longer active, Olympians such as Usain Bolt and Michael Phelps would undoubtedly be part of this group of dominant 21st century athletes as well. This discussion also extends to teams: when in doubt, it has always been wise to side with Geno Auriemma’s UConn Huskies, Real Madrid soccer, or the New England Patriots.
But I will break this rule by siding against the player and team that arguably best exemplify my aforementioned argument. That’s right: I’m picking against both LeBron James and the Golden State Warriors in this year’s Eastern and Western Conference finals.
Let me start with LeBron and the Cavaliers, who will attempt to eliminate my Celtics for the second straight year and reach their fourth consecutive NBA Finals. For starters, notice how I say my Celtics, meaning that if I was entirely objective, I would likely side with James and company. That doesn’t mean, however, I would’ve taken the Cavaliers in a rout. At the very least, I’m expecting this series to play out similarly to Cleveland’s seven game battle with Indiana in the first round rather than its swift disposal of Toronto. Here are a few reasons why.
First, lost amid the Cavaliers’ sweep over an overrated Raptors team (after all, I had been saying since February that DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and company were pretenders) is that the Cavs are still flawed. Most notably, they are horrific defensively as evidenced by how they ranked 29th in defensive efficiency (109.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) during the regular season. Even against Toronto, Cleveland still had an awful defensive rating of 110.1 largely because many of the supporting players who fueled their terrific offensive performances — namely Kyle Korver, who saw a massive uptick in minutes during the series — are below-average on the defensive end of the floor. The Cavaliers have other key players who are hardly shutdown defenders as well, such as J.R. Smith and Tristian Thompson, who respectively finished 331st and 327th out of 347 qualified players in defensive rating during the regular season.
Given how Cleveland had trouble containing Victor Oladipo and a relatively anemic Indiana offense in the first round, it will hardly be a surprise if the Cavaliers struggle to contain Boston’s deep group of scorers, which includes but is certainly not limited to Jayson Tatum (18.8 points per game in the postseason), Terry Rozier (18.2 points per game), and Al Horford (17.0 points per game). Additionally, it is highly unlikely that LeBron James and company will be able to have their way with the Celtics offensively after averaging nearly 120 points per game against an overwhelmed Toronto side. Boston boasts the best defense in the NBA, and though it remains unclear how exactly Brad Stevens will devise a way to slow down LeBron, the Celtics are certainly capable of shutting down “the other Cavaliers.”
Speaking of Stevens, it’s clear that his guidance has allowed this young, under-manned Celtics team to compete on a nightly basis no matter the opponent. In turn, LeBron’s dominance won’t automatically translate into another series victory for the Cavaliers. With a significant edge in the coaching department, as well as a decisive advantage on defense and enough experience thanks to the presence of versatile veterans like Al Horford to offset the Celtics’ youth, Boston will not only take this series the distance, but it will pull another significant upset to prevent LeBron from reaching his eighth straight Finals.
Over in the West, meanwhile, the Rockets will put an end to a similarly impressive reign by defeating the defending champion Warriors in seven games as well. I’m standing by what I said in mid-February: Houston will match Golden State offensively based on the volume of its three-point shooting; and more importantly, people have still yet to appreciate how dominant the Rockets have been this season when both James Harden and Chris Paul are on the floor. With its two stars healthy, Houston is a remarkable 51-7, a record of which if extrapolated over an 82-game regular season would be 72-10! Combined with the fact that the Rockets will open the series on their home floor — and then have the opportunity to host Game 7 if necessary — I’m standing by my early prediction made months ago that the Houston Rockets will be the team to finally dethrone the mighty Warriors.
