Four months from today, the 2018 NFL season will kick off with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles raising their franchise’s first Super Bowl banner as they play host to the Atlanta Falcons. Now I know what you might be thinking: four months…it’s not like the NFL season is right around the corner. Nonetheless, with free agency and the draft in the rear view mirror, it’s no longer too early to start forecasting the upcoming season.
After analyzing all 256 games scheduled on the 2018 slate, here are my division-by-division predictions.
AFC East Champion: New England Patriots (12-4)
2 New York Jets (6-10) 3 Miami Dolphins (4-12) 4 Buffalo Bills (3-13)
No surprise here. The Patriots project to feast on the AFC East yet again, largely because the rest of the division is as weak as it has ever been in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. The Bills are slated to decline significantly after outperforming their pythagorean win expectation by 2.7 wins last season; the Dolphins lost two of their best players — Ndamukong Suh and Jarvis Landry — over the offseason; and while the Jets may improve after drafting Sam Darnold, they still have a lot of holes after finishing 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Despite the reported turmoil taking place in Foxboro, New England and its top-ranked offense will back into 10+ wins simply by beating up on its bad divisional opponents.
AFC North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
2 Baltimore Ravens (7-9) 3 Cincinnati Bengals (5-11) 4 Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Similar to the Patriots, the Steelers will secure another division title even if their shot at re-claiming the Lombardi trophy continues to decline. Baltimore and Cincinnati did not make any significant improvements offensively after finishing 31st and 27th in yards per play respectively; and obviously the Browns still have a long way to go before they become relevant.
With Ben Roethlisberger committed for another season, Pittsburgh will again have one of the more prolific offenses in the league. The key for the Steelers, however, will be to improve defensively after getting exposed in big moments (i.e. their 45-42 playoff loss to Blake Bortles and the Jaguars) following linebacker Ryan Shazier’s devastating back injury. If Pittsburgh’s front seven, in particular, can step up its play, the Steelers may have enough to finally topple New England.
AFC South Champion: Houston Texans (10-6)
2 Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) 3 Indianapolis Colts (8-8) 4 Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Houston was on track for a third consecutive division title before Deshaun Watson’s season-ending ACL injury last year. After accounting for 21 total touchdowns in only six starts, I’m counting on a healthy comeback from Watson to spark a playoff return for the Texans, who should also benefit from better health on the defensive side of the ball with the return of J.J. Watt and linebacker Whitney Mercilus.
Jacksonville will surely be solid once again, though. However, the Jaguars will be lucky to remain as healthy defensively as they were last season (none of their 11 starters missed multiple games). Combined with Andrew Luck and the Colts taking a step forward with the help of new head coach Frank Reich, who served as Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator during its Super Bowl run last season, I bet Jacksonville regresses in 2018.
AFC West Champion: Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
2 Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) 3 Oakland Raiders (8-8) 4 Denver Broncos (7-9)
The Chargers were undoubtedly the best team to miss the playoffs last season. But after underperforming its expected win total by nearly two full wins, Los Angeles will find itself in the postseason next year thanks largely to its underrated defense, which quietly boasts a top-ten pass unit and has one of the best edge-rushing tandems — Joey Bosa (12.5 sacks) and Melvin Ingram (10.5 sacks) — in the NFL. It seems that the betting market is also high on the Chargers, as LA is the current favorite to win the West (+200) on sites such as BetPhoenix.
This division is undoubtedly the most difficult to predict, though. I potentially see big things in Kansas City now that 2017 first round pick Patrick Mahomes has been given the keys to the franchise, but the Chiefs’ defense was awful in the second half of last season (32nd in weighted DVOA). It remains to be seen how Oakland and Denver will perform as well, but I suppose it wouldn’t shock me to see Jon Gruden guide Oakland back to the postseason behind a bounce-back year from Derek Carr.
NFC East Champion: Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
2 Dallas Cowboys (9-7) 3 New York Giants (7-9) 4 Washington Redskins (6-10)
Surprisingly, I actually have the Eagles losing on opening night to the Falcons. But I think it will be smooth sailing for Philadelphia from there, particularly once Carson Wentz returns to the field. Many pundits, however, are already touting both the Cowboys and Giants as sleepers in this division, but the gap between those two teams and the defending champions is still very wide: Dallas, for instance, now has a shortage of solid skill players after losing Dez Bryant and Jason Witten and I simply don’t trust Eli Manning enough to predict that the Giants will have a remarkable turnaround after a 3-13 season.
The Eagles will become one of the rare teams in recent memory to repeat as NFC East champions. The question then becomes whether they have enough to make a return trip to the Super Bowl…
NFC North Champion: Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
2 Green Bay Packers (10-6) 3 Detroit Lions (8-8) 4 Chicago Bears (5-11)
The Vikings took advantage of Aaron Rodgers’ injury last year to win the NFC North — and they assured they wouldn’t lose their grip on the division by signing Kirk Cousins, who has finished in the top 10 of yards per pass attempt each of the past three seasons. Combined with Minnesota’s outstanding defense, which posted the lowest opponent third-down conversion rate in three decades last season, the Vikings will get the better of Green Bay once again, particularly since the Packers have still yet to make the necessary acquisitions in order to provide Aaron Rodgers with an above-average supporting cast.
NFC South Champion: Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
2 New Orleans Saints (10-6) 3 Carolina Panthers (8-8) 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
Similar to the NFC East, division champions rarely repeat in the South, which is partly why I’m picking Atlanta to unseat New Orleans. The Falcons were a goal-line play away from beating Philadelphia last season and with their defense continuing to emerge thanks to the improvement of players like linebacker Deion Jones, Atlanta projects to be one of the more formidable teams in the unbelievably deep NFC.
I’m still not writing off the Saints, however, due to their plethora of young talent (i.e. Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore). And given how well Drew Brees has fought off the aging process, New Orleans should be back in the playoffs as well.
NFC West Champion: Los Angeles Rams (12-4)
2 San Francisco 49ers (9-7) 3 Seattle Seahawks (8-8) 4 Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
It was evident during the Rams’ 42-7 beatdown of the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field last December that a changing of the guard had taken place in the NFC West. After adding a number of notable players — namely Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and Brandin Cooks — Los Angeles should prevent any sort of regression following their six-win increase a year ago and repeat as division champions.
I also don’t expect Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers, nor Russell Wilson’s Seahawks, to be nipping at the Rams’ heels, either. San Francisco still has plenty of room for improvement on the defensive side of the ball (26th in defensive DVOA last season) even after acquiring Richard Sherman, while Seattle has undergone too much turnover in its once formidable secondary.
So who is going to win the Super Bowl when it’s all said and done? Let’s turn to my early playoff predictions to find out:
Wild Card Round
3) Steelers over 6) Colts 5) Jaguars over 4) Texans
3) Vikings over 6) Packers 5) Saints over 4) Falcons
Divisional Round
1) Patriots over 5) Jaguars 2) Chargers over 3) Steelers
1) Eagles over 5) Saints 2) Rams over 3) Vikings
AFC Championship: Patriots over Chargers
NFC Championship: Rams over Eagles
Super Bowl LIII: Patriots over Rams
Look…if I was purely objective, I would not pick my Patriots to win Super Bowl LIII. Though I think New England is fully equipped to not only reach its 8th straight AFC Championship (I repeat: 8th straight AFC Championship), but return to the Super Bowl as well, the Patriots simply have not made the necessary adjustments on the defensive side of the ball to make me believe that they can beat a formidable NFC team quarterbacked by someone such as Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or even Jared Goff.
But Goff certainly wouldn’t be the only Rams player that the Patriots — or any team who wins the AFC, for that matter — would have to worry about. Los Angeles is loaded across the board with a full complement of Pro Bowl-caliber offensive players such as reigning Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley and offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth; and of course, the Rams’ defensive line is now the best in football after adding Ndamukong Suh to join last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.
Again, if I was entirely objective, I would take the Rams to beat the Patriots in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI. But that is not the case…so I’m siding with my Patriots to win Super Bowl LIII. And in fairness, it’s not like this is an outlandish prediction: BetPhoenix, for instance, has New England listed as the early Super Bowl favorite. Plus, the last time we saw Tom Brady take the field, he set multiple postseason records by throwing for 505 yards while leading the Patriots to over 600 yards of offense, albeit in a losing effort.
The best quarterback in NFL history still has more in the tank, which is why I’m picking the Patriots to string together one last hurrah and claim their sixth Lombardi trophy.
