It’s hard to win consecutive championships in any sport, at any level. But there’s something to be said about doing it in baseball–when you consider the skill required, as well as the small spurts of luck that help get your team through, it seems like an awfully daunting undertaking.
That’s exactly what the Houston Astros will try to do this year, as they look to follow up a spectacular 2017 with an even better 2018. The ‘Stros are the favorites in the AL West, but that’s not to say other divisional teams aren’t capable of making things difficult for Houston.
1/ Houston Astros (Projected record: 104-58)
The Astros will have an easy route to the division title this season, as they attempt to become the first team since the three-peat Yankees of 1998-2000 to win consecutive World Series titles. Houston didn’t get much stronger this offseason, but it’s not like they really needed to–especially when you consider the current states of their pitching and hitting corps. Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. will lead the way on the mound (each of those guys figure to make the All-Star team without much difficulty). A strong bullpen is anchored by dynamic closer Ken Giles, who enjoyed a career year in 2017. At the dish, the Astros only look more intimidating. Four Astros hit 20+ homers in 2017 (George Springer led the way with 34), but it’s their averages that tell the better story. Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa and Marwin Gonzalez (who all appeared in at least 100 games in 2017) each hit over .300 a year ago. As we saw against the Dodgers in the World Series, this lineup is dangerous all the way down the line. Much is being said about the upstart Yankees and the ever-consistent Indians, but it’s hard for me to envision anyone slowing down Houston.
2/ Los Angeles Angels (Projected record: 85-77)
Okay, hear me out. I don’t know how big of an impact the acquisition of Shohei Ohtani will realistically have on the Angels. Sure, it makes them a whole lot better in a lot of areas, but let’s look at this team beyond Ohtani and superstar Mike Trout. There are some nice pieces for sure on offense (I’m looking at guys like Zack Cozart and Andrelton Simmons), but besides these four, there are so many wild-cards on this team that could trend in either direction over the course of a long season. Does Albert Pujols have enough left in Year 18 to make a legitimate contribution? What about aging veterans Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton? Offensive production should be high enough to make the Halos a mild contender, but I’m just not convinced over their ability to make noise in October, and it’s because of that pitching rotation. Only two Angel starters won more than ten games a year ago. As for Ohtani, he could make a serious contribution on the mound. We know the potential is there for the Japanese phenom. It’s just a question of how he’ll respond to the real thing–which we all know is a whole lot different than hurling against minor-leaguers in the Arizona desert.
3/ Seattle Mariners (Projected record: 81-81)
The Mariners have been plagued by the same problem for several seasons now. They can’t find a good outfit of guys to complement Felix Hernandez in the starting rotation. Hernandez is likely one of the greatest pitchers of the 21st century, but his achievements have been clouded by mediocre overall team play. Aside from the addition of Mike Leake, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about on the mound. With that said, this team could end up being a lot like the Angels because of their offensive prowess. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are always capable of producing power, and Jean Segura established himself as one of the game’s better hitters with a solid 2017 season that saw him bat .300. By producing enough at the plate, the Mariners could manage to hang around for a little while. Ultimately, I see the lack of pitching depth as an obstacle too large for Seattle to overcome.
Welcome home, Ichiro!
4/ Texas Rangers (Projected record: 75-87)
Take one look at the Rangers’ depth chart, and you’ll notice some guys that have hung around Arlington for some time now (Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus.) Both of these veterans put up solid averages last year (Beltre coming in at .312, while Andrus finished up at .297. The problem with the Rangers’ lineup is that the next closest guy to these averages is Daniel DeShields, who hit just .269 in 2017. There’s not enough consistency in this lineup to expect the offense to reasonably compete against good pitching. Let’s take the Astros, for example. Can we honestly say Justin Verlander will struggle against a team that has this much trouble racking up base hits? Joey Gallo’s 41-homer output in ’17 was impressive, but he hit a measly .209 in the process. Even in a hitter’s haven like Globe Life Park, innate power alone won’t be enough to put Texas over the top. Focusing now on pitching–it’s not great in Texas. Martin Perez led the way for Texas with 13 wins in 2017, but opponents hit .301 against him. Veteran Cole Hamels went 11-6 a year ago, and appears to be headed for another year of consistent production. Look for him to be the outright leader of this pitching staff. As the trade deadline nears in July, look to the Rangers to be one of the more prominent sellers, as they plan for the future.
5/ Oakland Athletics (Projected record: 72-90)
The outlook for Oakland is not nearly is meek as some of the league’s other rebuilding teams. The A’s, at this point, are well into their rebuild, and even have a few solid pieces in place that could produce valuable trade bait later on in the summer. One such player is Kendall Graveman, who became the de facto ace of Oakland’s starting rotation following the departure of Sonny Gray to the Yankees. Graveman features a nice sinkerball that clocks in anywhere from 91 to 96 MPH, and could be a valuable asset for contending teams later on. If Oakland cuts Graveman loose, prepare for a serious rebuild. If they keep him, however, this is a young team with some noticeable talent that could keep things interesting in the Bay Area.
