This year’s NHL season has not played out as expected. For starters, many teams that entered the year with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations have fallen drastically short of expectations. The Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers are perhaps the two most glaring examples, as these two perennial contenders have suddenly slumped to the bottom of their respective divisions. But I’m even more disappointed in the Edmonton Oilers. After all, not only did Connor McDavid and company come into the year with the second highest Stanley Cup odds, but they were my preseason pick to win the West. Who saw any of this coming?
Yet despite these surprising reversals of fortune, what stands out most about this year — particularly in relation to previous seasons — is the dominance of two teams. As it stands now, the Eastern Conference-leading Tampa Bay Lightning (102 points) are the current favorite to win the Cup according to Vegas Insider. In fact, their current odds (9/2) are the highest for a Cup favorite in the regular season since the 2012-13 Blackhawks.
It’s surprising to see Tampa installed as the favorite, though, because the Lightning likely will not even claim the President’s trophy. With 106 points, the Nashville Predators are poised to finish with the most points in the league thanks to a dominant stretch of play over the past month (13-0-1 since February 19th). And with a seven-point edge over the Vegas Golden Knights, Nashville could enter the postseason with the largest point-gap between first and second place teams in the West since the 2011 Vancouver Canucks. No surprise, therefore, that the reigning Western champs are also a heavy favorite to win their conference and meet Tampa Bay in the Finals.
Yet if there is one thing to remember about the NHL it is this: rarely do things go according to plan. For starters, securing the President’s trophy doesn’t guarantee postseason success — just ask the Washington Capitals. Nor does simply being a high-seed mean you’re safe. Remember that before the Predators went on their run to the Cup Finals last year, they were the de facto 16 seed in last year’s playoffs. But that didn’t stop them from sweeping past the top-seeded Blackhawks and disposing the second-seeded Anaheim Ducks in the Conference Finals. Even more wild, however, is how only three number one seeds have even appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals since the 2004-05 lockout (those three teams are the ’13 Blackhawks, ’11 Canucks, and ’08 Red Wings). Not a single one seed has made it out of the East since 2004!
Well, I suppose it may be a good sign for Tampa that the last top seed to emerge out of this upset-heavy conference was the ’04 Lightning team headlined by Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier. Yet the aforementioned argument still stands: the Lightning and Predators are far from safe bets to reach the Cup Finals, no matter what Vegas says.
Keep an eye instead on these three dark horse teams as the playoffs approach. History says that one of them may even be a great bet to still be playing in June.
3) Columbus Blue Jackets (3rd in Metropolitan)
Anchored by two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, the Blue Jackets could be a classic example of a team that rides a star goaltender to the Cup Finals. The only concern for Columbus is its offense, which ranks 25th in the league in goals per game. Coach John Tortorella’s squad seems to be turning things around, though, as the Jackets are currently on an nine-game winning streak that includes five victories over playoff-bound teams. More importantly: Columbus is averaging a sensational 4.2 goals per game over that stretch. In other words, the Blue Jackets may be peaking at the right time.
2) Colorado Avalanche (4th in Central)
Colorado is the best bet to be this year’s Ottawa Senators, the latter of whom snuck up on everyone last April after surprisingly making the playoffs only to fall one overtime period short of reaching their first Cup Finals since 2007. Despite being picked by many to finish last in the Central division before the season, the Avalanche have plenty of talent on the offensive end, as center Nathan MacKinnon (38 goals, 3rd in the NHL in points) leads a top ten scoring unit. More impressive, however, is the fact that Colorado ranks 1st in the NHL in penalty kill percentage (84.3%). That could give the Avalanche a decisive edge over a strong offensive team like Vegas in the first round.
1) Los Angeles Kings (3rd in Pacific)
We’ve seen this story before: a Kings team casually coasting through the regular season only to storm through the playoffs on their way to a title run. After all, Los Angeles was an 8 seed in 2012 and a 6 seed in 2014.
Many faces from those two title teams remain the same, as the Kings are still led in net by the terrific Jonathan Quick and on defense by the imposing Drew Doughty. Both Quick and Doughty remain integral reasons why LA once again ranks near the top in goals against (2nd in the NHL, allowing only 2.51 per game). And it’s worth emphasizing the importance of their high ranking in this category because seven of the previous ten Stanley Cup winners — including each of the two Kings’ championship clubs — have finished the regular season ranked in the top five in goals against (six of those champions even finished in the top two).
Defense clearly reigns supreme in the NHL playoffs. And with a goaltender as good as any in this year’s projected field, the Los Angeles Kings are the most likely bet to surprise one or both of the prohibitive “favorites.”
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