Without further ado…
Not bad, right? Well, who am I kidding, I could be one of many people whose brackets are busted by the end of the first weekend. Nonetheless, I’m confident in most of my picks, especially since I’ve had success with my predictions in recent years (I picked North Carolina to win it all last year, for instance).
To be fair, though, I’ve certainly made some questionable decisions this time around. Virginia Tech over Villanova in the second round? Sure, it’s bold. But I think the Hokies have what it takes to pull the upset of the tournament considering they have already beaten Virginia, UNC, and Duke this season. Let’s also not forget that aside from its one championship run two years ago, Villanova has consistently fallen short of expectations. And hey, upsets happen in March, especially when you least expect it! For instance, did anyone have Middle Tennessee State beating Michigan State a couple years ago, or Florida Gulf Coast reaching the sweet sixteen? …Didn’t think so.
My other bold prediction: Gonzaga will return to the Final Four. Last year’s finalists lucked out by being placed in the same draw as Xavier, the tournament’s weakest number one seed. The Musketeers measure as just the 14th best team in the nation according to noted analytics guru Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency power rankings. Gonzaga, meanwhile, may be one of the most under-seeded teams in the tournament based on how they rank as the 8th best team in the country using these same metrics. I’ll take the Bulldogs to upset Xavier before exacting revenge on the team that beat them in last year’s championship, North Carolina.
In the South region, I like Virginia to hold serve because Tony Bennett’s squad ranks as the stingiest team in the tournament. They haven’t allowed over 70 points in a game all season! With a 31-2 record, the Cavaliers have clearly proven their worthy of being the tournament’s number one overall seed, so I think they should have enough to get by DeAndre Ayton and Arizona, as well as a tricky Cincinnati team.
On the other side of the draw, I’ll pick Purdue to come out of the East by virtue of being the second best team in a relatively weak region after Villanova. And I’ll take Duke to emerge victorious in the South, which is easily the most difficult draw considering it contains three heavyweights: Kansas, Michigan State, and the aforementioned Blue Devils. The Jayhawks are certainly equipped to win this year’s title after claiming the regular season and tournament championship’s in the nation’s toughest conference; and the Spartans, who came into the year ranked number one in the AP Poll, are no pushovers, either. But I think Duke has a tad more to offer offensively than each of those teams. Whereas Kansas and Michigan State ranked 6th and 10th respectively in offensively efficiency this season, Coach K’s squad ranked 3rd. They also finished a tad higher in total efficiency (3rd) than the Jayhawks (9th) and Spartans (6th), according to Pomeroy’s rankings.
And I’m not only picking the Blue Devils to win their region: I also like them to win the title. As I said on a recent Check Down Radio broadcast, I don’t think there’s any team in the nation capable of stopping freshman sensation and possible number one pick in next year’s NBA draft Marvin Bagley III (21.1 ppg, 11.5 rpg), nor do I think there is a team that can slow down Bagley and senior Grayson Allen (15.7 points) along with other talented freshmen like guard Gary Trent Jr. (.415 3pt%).
Perhaps Virginia is up to the task…but I just can’t trust the Cavaliers to win it all considering how they have consistently fallen short of expectations in previous years despite having high seeds. Moreover, their tendency to play in low-scoring, grind-it-out games due to their strong defense and occasionally anemic offense might leave them more prone to an upset before even reaching the Final Four.
So the answer is no: I don’t think Virginia deserves to be the unanimous favorite. But if there is one team I trust the most to win this year’s title, I suppose that team is Duke, who has a bit more talent than the rest of the field and, of course, also has championship pedigree.
