Compared to the other major sports, the NBA is predictable. I didn’t even hesitate, for instance, before I initially placed a wager on the Warriors to win this year’s NBA title — and I made that bet immediately after they won last year’s championship! After all, the past five NBA champions (as well as eight of the past ten) have all been number one seeds; and Golden State, as we know, is the most talented team in the league.
But once in a while there are those seasons (I’m specifically thinking of a year like 2011, when the Dallas Mavericks surprised everyone by coasting through the West as a #3 seed before upsetting LeBron James and his star-studded Miami Heat) when things don’t go as planned. Considering that All-Star weekend is upon us, it’s an appropriate time to reflect on whether 2018 might be one of those years.
BetPhoenix has all sorts of NBA betting odds for the season — and one thing is immediately clear when you take a look at its futures: the Warriors remain heavy favorites. That’s great news for me because Golden State’s implied odds suggest a better than 50% chance Stephen Curry and Co. will claim its third title in four years, which means I’ll likely be cashing in that bet I made back in June.
With that said…I’m actually not as high on the Warriors right now, particularly from a betting perspective. For starters, their odds are absurdly high, meaning the return on a Golden State futures bet is far lower than the norm. And as discussed in the latest Check Down Radio broadcast, I’m boldly predicting that we will not see another rematch between the Warriors and Cavaliers.
That’s because I ultimately think that the Houston Rockets will ultimately topple Golden State. Yes, I know I’m in the minority on this one, but thanks to the addition of Chris Paul, Houston is as dynamic as the Warriors offensively, as each rank in the top two of both offensive efficiency and true shooting percentage. Moreover, the Rockets have already beaten Golden State twice this season and, most telling of all, are a sensational 29-3 (!) with both Paul and James Harden healthy.
In other words, I certainly won’t be surprised to see Houston surprise everyone by dethroning the Warriors en route to its first trip to the NBA Finals since 1995. And from a betting standpoint, this gives the Rockets terrific value, as the Vegas consensus is that their odds to win the West are +350. That is far below Golden State, who is at -240.
Meanwhile, the relative vulnerability of the Warriors’ title chances is great news for another surging contender: the Cleveland Cavaliers. By acquiring young, versatile guards like Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and George Hill while simultaneously shedding all of their cancerous big-name players who couldn’t play defense (looking primarily at you, Isaiah Thomas), LeBron James and the Cavaliers have undoubtedly reasserted themselves as the clear favorites in the Eastern Conference. Their relatively easy path to the Finals also makes a futures bet on them to win the title worthwhile, as I not only think it could be likely these new-and-improved Cavs meet Houston in June, but there’s no doubt that Golden State will face a much more difficult journey to a fourth straight Finals since it will likely have to play teams like the Thunder, Timberwolves, and/or the aforementioned Rockets.
Given the success of favorites mentioned early in the article, however, there is no sense looking too deeply into other “dark-horse” contenders like Boston, Toronto, San Antonio, or Oklahoma City. This year’s NBA championship will once again come down to a shortlist of teams. And since the Warriors, despite being heavy favorites, may face stiffer competition than usual, the best futures value clearly resides with Harden’s Rockets and LeBron’s Cavaliers.
