The Philadelphia Eagles are what Bill Simmons would call a “nobody believes in us” team. And these kind of teams — motivated and hungry to prove everyone wrong — are not only dangerous, but make people like me look foolish. Even so, I’m not ashamed to admit I picked against the Eagles in each of the past two rounds. At least I’m not Fox Sports 1’s Nick Wright, who — on live TV, no less — said the following regarding the NFC bracket before the postseason began: “Every team has a shot [to go to the Super Bowl]…except for the number one seed, Philly.” (At least that take wasn’t as bad as his preseason prediction that the New York Giants would win the NFC, though!)
But clearly Doug Pederson’s squad has used these opinions to its advantage, as the Eagles happily embraced the dog-masks as a rallying cry after dethroning Atlanta, the defending NFC champions; they brought the masks out again after dismantling Minnesota despite being underdogs on their home field for the second consecutive playoff game. The fact that Philly will once again be an underdog against New England in Super Bowl LII could continue to serve them well, too.
Has anyone else noticed how well underdogs have performed in recent Super Bowls? Well, in the last ten years, ‘dogs are a terrific 7-2-1 (.750) against the spread; and since 2001, they are 11-4-1 (.719). More importantly, though, every one of those seven teams that have covered over the past ten Super Bowl’s, with the exception of the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, also won outright.
For reference, here’s a more in-depth overview of how underdogs have performed in Super Bowls since ’01. Favorites are indicated on the left, with red lettering signifying the underdog covered. Bolded teams refer to ‘dogs who covered the spread and also won the game.
- Super Bowl LI: New England (-3) New England 34, Atlanta 28 (OT)
- Super Bowl 50: Carolina (-5) Denver 24, Carolina 10
- Super Bowl 49: Pick ’em New England 28, Seattle 24
- Super Bowl 48: Denver (-2.5) Seattle 43, Denver 8
- Super Bowl 47: San Francisco (-4.5) Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31
- Super Bowl 46: New England (-2.5) New York 21, New England 17
- Super Bowl 45: Green Bay (-3) Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
- Super Bowl 44: Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17
- Super Bowl 43: Pittsburgh (-7) Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
- Super Bowl 42: New England (-12) New York 17, New England 14
- Super Bowl 41: Indianapolis (-7) Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
- Super Bowl 40: Pittsburgh (-4) Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
- Super Bowl 39: New England (-7) New England 24, Philadelphia 21
- Super Bowl 38: New England (-7) New England 32, Carolina 29
- Super Bowl 37: Oakland (-4) Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
- Super Bowl 36: St. Louis (-14) New England 20, St. Louis 17
Notice a lot of red and bolded teams, right? So if the recent past is any indication, Philadelphia certainly has a reasonable chance to upset New England.
Moreover, it also bodes well that the Eagles have a superior defense than the Patriots. Super Bowl underdogs that ranked higher in yards per play allowed than their opponent are 6-1 ATS since ’01 (Philadelphia currently ranks 8th in this category; New England is just 26th).
It also isn’t necessarily a concern for Philadelphia that Tom Brady has twice as many Super Bowl appearances (eight) as Nick Foles has playoff starts (four). For instance, the last five quarterbacks to play in a Super Bowl after winning the MVP award are…wait for it…0-5! (Those quarterbacks, for the record, were Cam Newton (’15), Peyton Manning (’09), Brady (’07), Rich Gannon (’02), and Kurt Warner (’01)). This year’s likely MVP, of course, is Brady. Plus, it’s not like these MVP quarterbacks always lost to other great QB’s. Eli Manning and the Giants have famously beaten the Patriots on two occasions despite the fact that Manning was far less qualified than Brady.
However, there is one noteworthy trend that is not in the Eagles’ favor. Teams coming off blowout victories in the NFC championship have fallen flat in recent Super Bowls. Remember what happened to Carolina two years ago, for example? Everyone was high on the Panthers after they destroyed the Cardinals in a similar fashion to what Philly just did to Minnesota (Carolina beat Arizona 49-15). But Newton and Co. were overmatched two weeks later when they met a more battle-tested and more consistent Denver side in Super Bowl 50.
In all, six of the previous seven NFC teams to win their conference title game by 17+ points, including last year’s Falcons, who beat Green Bay 44-21, have gone on to lose in the Super Bowl. In other words, think twice before backing the team with “momentum.”
Nonetheless, the aforementioned underdog trends still show that the disparity, on paper, between New England and Philadelphia in terms of experience and quarterback play does not necessarily mean this year’s Super Bowl will be lopsided. These Eagles, after all, have already shown us that it may even be preferable to be the team that nobody believes in.
