NFL Week 15 Picks: Will New England’s Success Against Pittsburgh Continue?

Week 15 Edition

 

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Records Entering Week 15

Straight Up: 142-66 (.683)               Last Week: 8-8 (.500)               Total: 306-167-2 (.644) 

Spread: 118-81-9 (.589)                   Last Week: 8-8 (.500)             Total: 268-190-17 (.582)

Over/Under: 114-88-6 (.563)           Last Week: 9-5-2 (.625)                Total: 256-213-6 (.545)

Locks: 18-4 (.818)                            Last Week: 0-0 (.000)               Total: 50-10 (.833)

Best Bets: 55-36 (.604)                  Last Week: 5-5 (.500)                 Total: 184-136-1 (.575)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season. 

 

Prediction for TNF: INDIANAPOLIS 23, Denver 20

Prediction for Saturday’s Games:      DETROIT 27, Chicago 17       LOS ANGELES 28, Kansas City 24

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

*Aster-risk denotes LOCK

 

Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) vs New York Giants (2-11)

Spread: PHI -7.5             Over/Under: 40.5

DVOA: PHI (3) > NYG (31)

Public Betting: PHI 70%

Even though they’ll be without Carson Wentz, the Eagles shouldn’t have too much trouble against the Giants. After all, New York’s offense ranks dead last in the NFL in points per drive (1.23). However, I have a hard time rallying behind Nick Foles as a 7.5 point favorite, so I’ll take the G-Men with the spread.

Philadelphia 24, NEW YORK 17

 

Green Bay Packers (7-6) vs Carolina Panthers (9-4)

Spread: CAR -3               Over/Under: 47

DVOA: GB (13) < CAR (9)

Public Betting: CAR 57%

After missing seven games, Aaron Rodgers will be back under center just in the nick of time for Green Bay, who currently has a 15.4% chance to make the playoffs. If they win out, the Packers could grab the final Wild Card spot, but things won’t be easy for them against Carolina, who is coming off an impressive victory over the NFC North-leading Vikings.

However, the Panthers’ passing offense has been surprisingly inefficient over the past three weeks, as it is averaging just 5.6 yards per pass (29th in the NFL). And based on reports out of Green Bay saying that Rodgers was healthy enough to return to the lineup two weeks ago, I trust the Packers’ offense more than Carolina’s.

GREEN BAY 27, Carolina 23

 

Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) vs Minnesota Vikings (10-3)

Spread: MIN -11              Over/Under: 42

DVOA: CIN (18) < MIN (7)

Public Betting: MIN 71%

It appears the season is over for Cincinnati, who lost in humiliating fashion to the Bears last week. Without the services of linebacker Vontaze Burfict and running back Joe Mixon, the Bengals won’t have much of a chance at Minnesota.

*MINNESOTA 27, Cincinnati 13

 

Miami Dolphins (6-7) vs Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Spread: BUF -3              Over/Under: 39

DVOA: MIA (29) < BUF (25)

Public Betting: BUF 63%

Is Miami in for a letdown after its big win over the Patriots? Everyone seems to think so, particularly since the warm-weather Dolphins must contend with the “elements” in Buffalo. But did anyone actually look at the weather report? In short, it’s not going to be anything close to last week’s game, as there is no snow in the forecast. For this reason, I think Miami, whose defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play over the past three weeks (t-10th in the NFL) will beat a Buffalo team that ranks just 29th in yards per play.

MIAMI 24, Buffalo 17 

 

Houston Texans (4-9) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

Spread: JAC -10.5              Over/Under: 38

DVOA: HOU (24) < JAC (8)

Public Betting: HOU 53%

Back in Week One, the Jaguars piled up ten sacks in a 29-7 rout over the Texans. Tom Savage started that game at quarterback for Houston, but since he is out with a concussion, Bill O’Brien will turn to third-stringer T.J. Yates. Combined with questions surrounding the health of DeAndre Hopkins (toe) and Jadeveon Clowney (knee), there is little hope for the Texans today.

*JACKSONVILLE 23, Houston 10 

 

New York Jets (5-8) vs New Orleans Saints (9-4)

Spread: NO -16                Over/Under: 47.5

DVOA: NYJ (23) < NO (2)

Public Betting: NO 58%

Saints by a few touchdowns. Moving on.

*NEW ORLEANS 34, New York 13

 

Arizona Cardinals (6-7) vs Washington Redskins (5-8)

Spread: WSH -4                 Over/Under: 41

DVOA: ARZ (17) < WSH (21)

Public Betting: WSH 52%

The Redskins continue to be hampered by injuries, as linebacker Zach Brown and offensive lineman Trent Williams could both miss this matchup. However, though Blaine Gabbert has helped guide Arizona to two impressive wins over Jacksonville and Tennessee in recent weeks, I don’t trust the Cardinals on the road, as they’re averaging just 14.5 points per game away from Glendale. I’ll take Kirk Cousins and the ‘Skins.

WASHINGTON 21, Arizona 16

 

Baltimore Ravens (7-6) vs Cleveland Browns (0-13)

Spread: BAL -7               Over/Under: 41

DVOA: BAL (4) > CLE (30)

Public Betting: BAL 64%

My “never bet on the Browns” strategy is 13 for 13 this season. Never bet on the Browns!

BALTIMORE 23, Cleveland 13

 

Tennessee Titans (8-5) vs San Francisco 49ers (3-10)

Spread: SF -1.5               Over/Under: 45

DVOA: TEN (22) > SF (27)

Public Betting: SF 60%

How is a 3-10 team favored over an 8-5 team bound for the playoffs? One reason: Jimmy Garoppolo. According to Pro Football Focus, Garoppolo is averaging 9.1 yards per pass under pressure. For reference, Tom Brady currently leads the NFL in this category and he is averaging only 8.6. Tennessee’s defense is quietly pretty good (it is 4th in the NFL in opponent yards per play), but I’ll take Garoppolo and the 49ers to win their third straight game.

SAN FRANCISCO 23, Tennessee 20 

 

Los Angeles Rams (9-4) vs Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

Spread: SEA -1                 Over/Under: 47.5

DVOA: LAR (1) > SEA (12)

Public Betting: SEA 57%

In theory, this is exactly the kind of position Seattle would like to be in. With a victory, the Seahawks will secure the tiebreaker over the Rams for the division lead, meaning they would control their own destiny over the final two weeks. And since this game is in Seattle, I’d normally like their chances.

However, the Seahawks are simply too decimated defensively. Linebackers K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner are unlikely to play due to injury; and combined with the absences of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary, I think LA’s 5th-ranked offense will have success. And let’s not sleep on the Rams’ defense, which ranks 9th in the NFL in points allowed per drive. In short, the Rams’ offense will take advantage of Seattle’s injuries and their defense will do just enough to contain Russell Wilson.

LOS ANGELES 27, Seattle 24

 

New England Patriots (10-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)

Spread: NE -3                Over/Under: 54.5

DVOA: NE (5) > PIT (6)

Public Betting: NE 57%

There are plenty of reasons to pick the Patriots to topple Pittsburgh, and only one reason to take the Steelers. For starters, Bill Belichick has owned Mike Tomlin, as Tomlin is just 2-6 against New England — and one of those wins, for the record, came while Matt Cassel was quarterbacking the Patriots in 2008. Additionally, with Tom Brady at quarterback in those seven matchups, the Patriots have been held under 27 points only once. And in case you were wondering, Brady’s touchdown-to-interception ratio against Tomlin’s Steelers is pretty good…he’s thrown 22 TD’s without a single interception.

Moreover, despite being one of only two 11-2 teams in the NFL, the Steelers are overrated. And this is more of a fact than an opinion. First, the Steelers are 7-1 in one-possession games. That figure, in short, is unsustainable, particularly since Pittsburgh has needed four game-winning field goals in its previous five contests to beat a slew of NFL heavyweights…like Jacoby Brissett and the Indianapolis Colts and Brett Hundley’s Green Bay Packers. Their remarkable success in close games also explains why Pittsburgh has the point differential of an 8-5 team, which suggests they have been arguably the NFL’s biggest over-performer this season.

So why do the Steelers still have a good chance to beat New England today? Simply put, the Patriots are dealing with a number of key injuries on defense. Defensive tackle Alan Branch and linebacker Kyle Van Noy have already been ruled out; defensive end Trey Flowers, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and emerging defensive end Eric Lee are all questionable as well. Obviously this is problematic considering the Steelers have two of the NFL’s most dynamic playmakers in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.

Nonetheless, there is still reason to believe in the Pats’ defense. Brown, who had just 77 receiving yards in last year’s AFC Championship, has been relatively quiet against New England in the past. And Bell, surprisingly, ranks just 24th among all qualified running backs in yards per rush attempt (3.9) this season. Thus, I trust Belichick to devise a scheme that will keep Pittsburgh’s offense in check. Brady and Gronkowski will take care of business from there.

NEW ENGLAND 30, Pittsburgh 24 

 

Dallas Cowboys (7-6) vs Oakland Raiders (6-7)

Spread: DAL -3                 Over/Under: 45.5

DVOA: DAL (10) > OAK (20)

Public Betting: DAL 68%

The loser of this game can forget about making the playoffs. And unfortunately for the Cowboys, who will finally get Ezekiel Elliott back from suspension next week, I think they could be too shorthanded against the Raiders. Linebacker Sean Lee, offensive tackle Tyron Smith, and cornerback Orlando Scandrick are all questionable. A lot will depend on whether these players are inactive at kickoff, but I’m not confident in Dallas’ chances against a similarly desperate Raiders team.

OAKLAND 28, Dallas 24 

 

And lastly, here are my Best Bets for Week Fifteen…

• TEASER: MINNESOTA (-4.5) over Cincinnati & GREEN BAY (+9.5) over Carolina
• MIAMI (+3) over Buffalo
• Miami vs Buffalo OVER 39
• TEASER: BALTIMORE (-0.5) over Cleveland & Tennessee vs San Francisco UNDER 51.5
• Dallas vs Oakland OVER 45.5