Week 13 Edition
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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
***Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records Entering Week 13
Straight Up: 122-54 (.693) Last Week: 14-2 (.875) Total: 286-155-2 (.648)
Spread: 100-67-9 (.594) Last Week: 12-3-1 (.781) Total: 250-176-17 (.584)
Over/Under: 97-75-4 (.563) Last Week: 10-5-1 (.656) Total: 239-200-4 (.544)
Locks: 17-4 (.810) Last Week: 4-0 (1.000) Total: 49-10 (.831)
Best Bets: 46-31 (.597) Last Week: 4-3 (.571) Total: 175-131-1 (.572)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season.
Prediction for TNF: DALLAS 26, Washington 24
CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread
*Aster-risk denotes LOCK
New England Patriots (9-2) vs Buffalo Bills (6-5)
Spread: NE -8.5 Over/Under: 48.5
DVOA: NE (7) > BUF (23)
Public Betting: NE 81%
After three consecutive 17+ point victories, the Patriots may be in for more of a struggle at Buffalo. The Bills play well at home (4-1 in ’17) and their defense, although inconsistent, is pretty good. New England have simply been playing too well offensively, though. The Pats are averaging 36.3 points and 128 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. I doubt Buffalo’s offense (28th in yards per play) can keep up.
NEW ENGLAND 31, Buffalo 19
Minnesota Vikings (9-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
Spread: ATL -3 Over/Under: 47
DVOA: MIN (5) > ATL (15)
Public Betting: MIN 64%
This game may be in Atlanta, but Minnesota is the stronger team. Much has been said about Case Keenum and the Vikings’ surprisingly good passing attack, but everyone is sleeping on how they also rank 6th in the NFL in rushing yards per game despite losing rookie sensation Dalvin Cook. And with respect to the Falcons, Minnesota has the far superior defense. While the Vikings have allowed the 6th fewest points per drive, Atlanta ranks just 19th. I’ll side with the superior team in this matchup even though the Falcons have clearly rebounded after their sluggish start.
MINNESOTA 27, Atlanta 24
Detroit Lions (6-5) vs Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Spread: BAL -3 Over/Under: 43.5
DVOA: DET (11) < BAL (6)
Public Betting: DET 63%
Detroit is certainly a solid squad, but everyone is underrating the Ravens, who lead the league in both total defense and special teams according to Football Outsiders. These two strengths have propelled them into Wild Card contention despite not receiving any help from their underperforming offense. But especially since this game is in Baltimore, I think the Ravens’ defense and kicking game will lead them to another key victory.
BALTIMORE 23, Detroit 17
San Francisco 49ers (1-10) vs Chicago Bears (3-8)
Spread: CHI -3 Over/Under: 41.5
DVOA: SF (30) < CHI (25)
Public Betting: SF 60%
49ers/Bears may look like a boring game on paper, but I’m intrigued by the quarterback matchup between Jimmy Garoppolo, who will make his first start for San Francisco, and last year’s number two overall pick Mitchell Trubisky. Based on what I saw of Garoppolo in New England, I bet he’ll play well in his 49ers debut. I’ll even take him in this matchup over Trubisky, who has shown flashes of brilliance, but has otherwise been underwhelming (he ranks dead-last out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR).
SAN FRANCISCO 21, Chicago 16
Denver Broncos (3-8) vs Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Spread: DEN -1.5 Over/Under: 39.5
DVOA: DEN (27) > MIA (32)
Public Betting: MIA 55%
Pick your poison in this matchup, but I guess I’ll side with a Broncos team that will reinsert Trevor Siemian under center. Plus, Denver’s seven game losing streak has to end at some point!
DENVER 23, Miami 17
Houston Texans (4-7) vs Tennessee Titans (7-4)
Spread: TEN -7 Over/Under: 43
DVOA: HOU (18) > TEN (22)
Public Betting: HOU 56%
For a 7-4 team, the Titans, frankly, are mediocre: they rank just 22nd in DVOA. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans pulled an upset; the problem is that they’re equally as mediocre and too banged up (receiver Will Fuller will miss this game, for instance). So once again, Tennessee will take advantage of its 30th-ranked schedule and move to 8-4.
Tennessee 24, HOUSTON 20
Indianapolis Colts (3-8) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Spread: JAC -9.5 Over/Under: 40.5
DVOA: IND (29) < JAC (8)
Public Betting: JAC 51%
Last time these teams met, the Jaguars dominated the Colts 27-0 thanks to their superb pass rush. Led by likely Pro Bowlers Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, Jacksonville’s front-seven totaled 10 sacks on the day. I doubt much has changed since that matchup — the Jaguars’ D should dominate in the trenches once again.
Jacksonville 19, INDIANAPOLIS 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) vs Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Spread: GB -2.5 Over/Under: 45.5
DVOA: TB (26) < GB (14)
Public Betting: GB 83%
Jameis Winston will return for the Buccaneers this weekend, and as shaky as he has been this season, I’ll still take him over Brett Hundley, who played well last week at Pittsburgh but has poor overall since taking over for Aaron Rodgers.
TAMPA BAY 23, Green Bay 20
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) vs New York Jets (4-7)
Spread: KC -3.5 Over/Under: 43.5
DVOA: KC (16) > NYJ (24)
Public Betting: KC 51%
Forget about the fact that the Chiefs have averaged just 12 points per game over the past three weeks for a moment. Kansas City’s core offensive personnel of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt should have an edge over New York’s middle-of-the-pack defense. I’ll take the Chiefs to rebound.
KANSAS CITY 27, New York 23
Carolina Panthers (8-3) vs New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Spread: NO -5 Over/Under: 48
DVOA: CAR (9) < NO (3)
Public Betting: NO 61%
Many people seem to like the Saints to hold serve at home, but I’m a tad hesitant only because New Orleans could be without key players like cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Plus, Carolina has one of the NFL’s best defenses, as it ranks 6th in yards allowed per drive. Nonetheless, I’ll take Drew Brees, who is completing nearly 75% of his passes over the past five weeks, and New Orleans’ top-ranked rushing offense to find a way to prevail.
New Orleans 30, CAROLINA 27
Cleveland Browns (0-11) vs Los Angeles Chargers (5-6)
Spread: LAC -14 Over/Under: 44
DVOA: CLE (31) < LAC (12)
Public Betting: LAC 72%
I probably sound like a broken record, but I’ll say it again: never pick the Browns! (Especially since they’re playing a surging Chargers team)
*Los Angeles 27, CLEVELAND 16
Los Angeles Rams (8-3) vs Arizona Cardinals (5-6)
Spread: LA -7 Over/Under: 44.5
DVOA: LA (2) > ARZ (21)
Public Betting: LA 73%
Credit Blaine Gabbert for leading the Cardinals to an upset win over Jacksonville last week, but I don’t expect lightning to strike twice. The Rams dominated Arizona 33-0 when these teams met in London back in October. This meeting will almost certainly be closer, but LA is on a roll offensively, so I expect it to still be a two-touchdown game.
LOS ANGELES 28, Arizona 14
New York Giants (2-9) vs Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Spread: OAK -8.5 Over/Under: 41.5
DVOA: NYG (28) < OAK (19)
Public Betting: OAK 75%
I’m not afraid to take a Geno Smith-led team with the spread. This decision has nothing to do with the Giants, but everything to do with how Oakland will be without its top two receivers, Amari Cooper (ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspension). The Raiders have underachieved this season as is, so I’ll side against the majority of the betting public and take New York to at least keep this game close.
Oakland 20, NEW YORK 19
Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (7-4)
Spread: PHI -5 Over/Under: 47
DVOA: PHI (1) > SEA (10)
Public Betting: PHI 66%
I said it on Check Down Radio earlier this week: let’s not neglect how the Eagles have played the NFL’s 5th-easiest slate of opponents through twelve weeks. And even though I still think Philadelphia is legit based on how it has destroyed nearly every team it has played, it’s disrespectful for the Seahawks to be 5-point home underdogs. Pete Carroll’s squad may be depleted, but with Russell Wilson and company continuing to average roughly 25 points per game, I’ll take Seattle to show up motivated on Sunday Night and knock off the Eagles.
SEATTLE 29, Philadelphia 24
And lastly, here are my Best Bets for Week Thirteen…
- MINNESOTA (+3) over Atlanta
- TEASER: SAN FRANCISCO (+9.5) over Chicago & CAROLINA (+11.5) over New Orleans
- NEW YORK (+8.5) over Oakland
- SEATTLE (+5) over Philadelphia
