NFL Week 11 Picks: Will Wentz and Eagles Crush Dallas’ Playoff Hopes?

Week 11 Edition

 

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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams

**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider

***Note –  Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread

 

Records Entering Week 11

Straight Up: 100-46 (.685)               Last Week: 9-5 (.643)               Total: 264-147-2 (.642) 

Spread: 83-56-7 (.593)                   Last Week: 4-10 (.286)             Total: 233-165-15 (.582)

Over/Under: 81-62-3 (.565)           Last Week: 7-7 (.500)                Total: 223-187-3 (.544)

Locks: 12-3 (.800)                            Last Week: 2-0 (1.000)               Total: 44-9 (.830)

Best Bets: 37-26 (.587)                  Last Week: 3-6 (.333)                 Total: 166-126-1 (.568)

*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season. 

 

*Prediction for TNF: Pittsburgh 24, TENNESSEE 21       (No Best Bets were placed) 

CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread

*Aster-risk denotes LOCK

 

Detroit Lions (5-4) vs Chicago Bears (3-6)

Spread: DET -3               Over/Under: 41

DVOA: DET (11) > CHI (23)

Public Betting: DET 79%

This could be a trap game for the potentially playoff-bound Lions. Chicago is pretty good defensively, ranking 10th in the NFL in opponent yards per play (5.0). And rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has shown momentary flashes of brilliance over the past few weeks. Nonetheless, I like Detroit because its offense has been on fire in recent weeks. The Lions have put up at least 30 points in three of their past four games, and with starting offensive lineman Taylor Decker and T.J. Lang projected to return from injury this week, Jim Caldwell’s squad should have little trouble moving to 6-4.

DETROIT 27, Chicago 17 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) vs Cleveland Browns (0-9)

Spread: JAC -7.5              Over/Under: 37

DVOA: JAC (6) > CLE (31)

Public Betting: JAC 71%

Jacksonville’s number-one ranked defense has feasted on nearly every opponent it has faced this season. Have fun, DeShone Kizer!

*JACKSONVILLE 24, Cleveland 3 

 

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) vs Green Bay Packers (5-4)

Spread: BAL -2              Over/Under: 38

DVOA: BAL (14) < GB (13)

Public Betting: BAL 56%

Are the Packers as bad with Brett Hundley as we think? Wait, let me rephrase that: is Baltimore  really good enough to be a road favorite? After all, the Ravens’ offense is awful: Joe Flacco ranks 27th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR, and the unit as a whole is averaging just 4.4 yards per play — that’s dead-last in the NFL. Green Bay still has enough talent on both sides of the ball to make due with their backup quarterback for the second consecutive week.

GREEN BAY 23, Baltimore 16 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) vs Miami Dolphins (4-5)

Spread: Pick ’em              Over/Under: 41.5

DVOA: TB (26) > MIA (32)

Public Betting: TB 52%

Who will throw more interceptions: Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jay Cutler? Hard to say. What I do know, though, is that both of these teams are terrible and seemed to have mailed in their seasons — I mean, did you see how bad Miami looked last Monday night? With that said, I’ll take the Dolphins because they seem to find ways to win at home, where they are 8-3 over the past two seasons and 19-16 since 2013.

MIAMI 24, Tampa Bay 17 

 

Los Angeles Rams (7-2) vs Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

Spread: MIN -2.5               Over/Under: 46.5

DVOA: LA (1) > MIN (5)

Public Betting: LA (56%)

It’s rare for the game of the day to take place at 1:00. But that is exactly the situation here, as this is just the second matchup to take place this season between two teams ranked in the top five in DVOA (the first was when Pittsburgh played Kansas City back in October).

There shouldn’t be too much doubt about Case Keenum leading Minnesota for the remainder of the year. However, I think he and the Vikings offense will be in for a challenge against an LA defense that everyone is sleeping on. Stat of the day: Wade Phillips’ defense ranks number one in the league according to Football Outsiders. Combined with their high-powered offense, I like the Rams to notch their most impressive win of the season.

LOS ANGELES 26, Minnesota 24 

 

Washington Redskins (4-5) vs New Orleans Saints (7-2)

Spread: NO -7.5                Over/Under: 51

DVOA: WSH (15) < NO (2)

Public Betting: NO 66%

Boy, the schedule-makers did not do the Redskins any favors. This will be their eighth  game this season against an over .500 opponent. And as Washington has learned over the past few weeks, none of these playoff-bound teams will show any sympathy. The Redskins’ defense, which ranks just 22nd in opponent yards per play, will have a tough time containing New Orleans’ dynamic offense.

New Orleans 28, WASHINGTON 21 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) vs New York Giants (1-8)

Spread: KC -10               Over/Under: 46

DVOA: KC (12) > NYG (30)

Public Betting: KC 73%

The Giants have completely given up on their season. Over the past three weeks, their defense has given up a horrendous 7.2 yards per play (last in the NFL) and 35.3 points per game (30th in the NFL). Maybe Ben McAddo’s “brutally honest” mid-week film session will rally the troops in time to battle Kansas City’s prolific offense? Yeah…I’ll wager no.

*KANSAS CITY 32, New York 17

 

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) vs Houston Texans (3-6)

Spread: HOU -1                 Over/Under: 38

DVOA: ARZ (25) < HOU (16)

Public Betting: ARZ 55%

Pick your poison: Blaine Gabbert or Tom Savage? I’ll close my eyes and choose Gabbert and the Cardinals.

ARIZONA 24, Houston 16 

 

Buffalo Bills (5-4) vs Los Angeles Chargers (3-6)

Spread: LAC -4.5                Over/Under: 43

DVOA: BUF (22) < LAC (18)

Public Betting: LAC 54%

I have no idea what to expect from Buffalo’s new starting quarterback, rookie fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman. Who?  Yeah, who is right. The Bills clearly seem to be heading in the wrong direction after two blowout losses to the Jets and Saints. I’ll take the Chargers to capitalize, even though I’m not confident in this prediction solely due to Philip Rivers’ injury status (he is questionable to play after suffering a concussion).

Los Angeles 20, BUFFALO 16 

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) vs Denver Broncos (3-6)

Spread: DEN -2.5              Over/Under: 38.5

DVOA: CIN (19) > DEN (27)

Public Betting: DEN 68%

To be clear: I’m not claiming that the Broncos are a good team. They’re not. However, I think there is a tendency to overreact after a team has an awful primetime performance. For instance, what are the odds Denver will muff another punt and  allow both an 103-yard kickoff return and a blocked punt in the same game? Sure, the Broncos have been terrible for the past five weeks, but many of their losses have come against good teams like the Patriots, Eagles, and Chiefs. I’ll hesitantly take them to beat an equally mediocre Bengals team.

DENVER 20, Cincinnati 17 

 

New England Patriots (7-2) vs Oakland Raiders (4-5)

Spread: NE -7                 Over/Under: 55

DVOA: NE (7) > OAK (21)

Public Betting: NE 85%

This matchup in Mexico City could be one of 2017’s highest-scoring affairs. After all, both of these teams have two of the worst defenses in the league according to a variety of indicators. In terms of yards per play, for instance, New England ranks last in the NFL (6.5 yards allowed per play) while Oakland ranks 28th (5.8).

However, I think the Raiders’ defense has far more to be concerned about than New England’s. Oakland measures as the league’s worst defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which is particularly concerning for two reasons. First, they rank as the worst defensive unit primarily because they also rank 32nd against the pass. That obviously doesn’t bode well considering they’re about to face Tom Brady. And second, Oakland has posted these horrible numbers despite  playing the league’s third-easiest slate of opposing offenses. Yikes!

As for the Pats, many stats may still indicate that they have one of the weakest defenses in football. But here’s the one stat that truly matters: New England hasn’t allowed any of its past five opponents to score over 20 points. I don’t necessarily expect that trend to continue against Oakland’s formidable offense, but the Patriots’ D should hold Derek Carr and company to a respectable point total. New England’s offense will take care of the rest.

NEW ENGLAND 35, Oakland 24

 

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) vs Dallas Cowboys (5-4) 

Spread: PHI -4.5                Over/Under: 48.5

DVOA: PHI (3) > DAL (10)

Public Betting: PHI 82%

Last week’s blowout loss to Atlanta was certainly a wakeup call for the Cowboys. The fact is that Dallas is in 10th place in the NFC due to a number of tiebreakers; and if it wants to have any hope of making the playoffs, a sense of urgency needs to set in.

Regardless, the unfortunate truth for the Cowboys is that they will once again be without too many integral players to beat a superior Eagles team. Ezekiel Elliott (suspension) and linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) will miss this game; All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith (back/groin) may not play either. We saw how valuable each of these three players are last weekend. Dallas simply had no answer for the Falcons’ offense without Lee and the Cowboys’ offense was atrocious without Elliott and Smith’s services (Smith, in particular, was missed, as Dak Prescott was sacked a career-high eight times).

The surging Eagles, who are coming off a bye, will take advantage of the Cowboys’ difficult situation and move to 9-1 with relative ease.

PHILADELPHIA 31, Dallas 20

 

And lastly, here are my Best Bets for Week Eleven…

• JACKSONVILLE (-330) over Cleveland
• Jacksonville vs Cleveland UNDER 37
• TEASER: KANSAS CITY (-3) over New York & New England vs Oakland OVER 48
• Buffalo vs Los Angeles UNDER 43
• TEASER: Los Angeles vs Minnesota UNDER 53 & Cincinnati vs Denver UNDER 45
• NEW ENGLAND (-340) over Oakland
• PHILADELPHIA (-240) over Dallas