Week 9 Edition
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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
***Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
****Note – Yards per Play Differential Rankings are calculated by subtracting Yards per Play from Opponent Yards per Play
Records Entering Week 9
Straight Up: 81-38 (.681) Last Week: 9-4 (.692) Total: 245-139-2 (.637)
Spread: 74-39-6 (.647) Last Week: 6-7 (.462) Total: 224-148-14 (.598)
Over/Under: 69-48-2 (.588) Last Week: 7-6 (.538) Total: 211-173-2 (.549)
Locks: 10-3 (.769) Last Week: 1-0 (1.000) Total: 42-9 (.824)
Best Bets: 33-17 (.660) Last Week: 2-2 (.500) Total: 162-117-1 (.580)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season.
*Prediction for TNF: NEW YORK 23, Buffalo 20 (No Best Bets were placed)
CAPITAL Letters indicate pick with spread
*Aster-risk denotes LOCK
Denver Broncos (3-4) vs Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Spread: PHI -7 Over/Under: 41.5
DVOA: DEN (18) < PHI (3)
YPP Differential: DEN (6) > PHI (14)
Public Betting: PHI 65%
Denver’s offense has been a mess. Since its outstanding 42-point showing against Dallas in Week Two, the Broncos have averaged just 12.2 points per game over their subsequent 1-4 stretch. Now head coach Vance Joseph will look to Brock Osweiler to turn things around. Yes, the same Brock Osweiler that was horrendous for the Texans last year and cut by the Browns before the season. In short, it’s hard to imagine Denver and its putrid offense topping the high-flying Eagles.
Philadelphia 23, DENVER 17
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) vs New York Giants (1-6)
Spread: LAR -4.5 Over/Under: 42
DVOA: LAR (2) > NYG (25)
YPP Differential: LAR (7) > NYG (27)
Public Betting: LAR 76%
The Rams are unequivocally the better team, particularly given the Giants’ injury woes. But New York’s defense has been stingy in recent weeks, allowing opponents to convert just 41% of their red zone opportunities over the past three weeks. Landon Collins and company will need to have another strong defensive performance against LA’s sizzling offense — I think they will, but I don’t trust Eli Manning and the Giants’ 30th-ranked scoring offense to put up enough points.
Los Angeles 20, NEW YORK 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) vs New Orleans Saints (5-2)
Spread: NO -6.5 Over/Under: 52
DVOA: TB (24) < NO (4)
YPP Differential: TB (16) < NO (8)
Public Betting: NO 67%
Losers of four straight, the Buccaneers are in free fall. But let’s keep something in mind about the NFL: crazy things happen on a weekly basis. And in the past three weeks, teams with a higher DVOA at home (such as New Orleans) are just 8-14-1 (.370) against the spread. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a motivated Tampa team upset the 5-2 Saints. With that said, Drew Brees and company have a clear edge the Bucs’ 31st-ranked pass defense.
New Orleans 26, TAMPA BAY 23
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
Spread: JAC -5.5 Over/Under: 39.5
DVOA: CIN (23) < JAC (7)
YPP Differential: CIN (10) < JAC (2)
Public Betting: JAC 55%
The hype is real for this Jaguars defense. According to a recent ESPN article, it might even be better than the Legion of Boom. I wouldn’t go that far, but Jacksonville’s D is number one in defensive DVOA for a reason. It’s only weakness, however, is that it surprisingly ranks last in the NFL in run defense, according to Football Outsiders. Granted, part of that may have to do with how it’s essentially impossible to pass against defensive backs Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, which leads to teams trying their luck against the run. But with respect to this matchup, Cincinnati’s rushing attack is one of the worst in the NFL, ranking just 30th in yards per rush attempt (3.2). Jacksonville should ultimately move to 5-3.
Jacksonville 20, CINCINNATI 16
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) vs Carolina Panthers (5-3)
Spread: ATL -2.5 Over/Under: 42.5
DVOA: ATL (21) < CAR (15)
YPP Differential: ATL (1) > CAR (17)
Public Betting; ATL 50%
Tough game to call. On a neutral field, I would take Atlanta, who still ranks 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential. But this game is in Charlotte, and with Luke Kuechly back healthy to stabilize Carolina’s 7th-ranked defense, I’ll take the Panthers to win this big NFC South matchup.
CAROLINA 23, Atlanta 20
Indianapolis Colts (2-6) vs Houston Texans (3-4)
Spread: HOU -7 Over/Under: 45.5
DVOA: IND (32) < HOU (8)
YPP Differential: IND (32) < HOU (18)
Public Betting: HOU 51%
The Texans’ Super Bowl hopes obviously took a massive hit after likely offensive rookie of the year Deshaun Watson unfortunately went down with a torn ACL. At least Houston has the Astros, though! And at least Indianapolis–the only team in the NFL to rank in the bottom five in both offense and defense–is terrible.
Houston 24, INDIANAPOLIS 19
Baltimore Ravens (4-4) vs Tennessee Titans (4-3)
Spread: TEN -3.5 Over/Under: 43
DVOA: BAL (12) > TEN (20)
YPP Differential: BAL (24) < TEN (15)
Public Betting: TEN 64%
I can’t get a read on Tennessee. Earlier in the season, they put up 30+ points against Jacksonville and Seattle, two of the league’s best defenses. But then two weeks ago, they needed overtime to beat Cleveland. Following a bye, though, I like the Titans against a possibly-woozy Joe Flacco and a Baltimore offense that is 31st in yards per play.
TENNESSEE 24, Baltimore 16
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) vs San Francisco 49ers (0-8)
Spread: ARZ -2.5 Over/Under: 39.5
DVOA: ARZ (28) > SF (29)
YPP Differential: ARZ (19) > SF (30)
Public Betting: ARZ 61%
What a toilet bowl this is: Drew Stanton vs C.J. Beathard! The 49ers should win a game sooner or later.
SAN FRANCISCO 26, Arizona 20
Washington Redskins (3-4) vs Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
Spread: SEA -7 Over/Under: 45
DVOA: WSH (16) < SEA (10)
YPP Differential: WSH (9) > SEA (13)
Public Betting: SEA 67%
The Redskins remain banged up heading into Seattle. All-Pro offensive lineman Trent Williams will probably miss this matchup, as will tight end Jordan Reed. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ offensive line has been doing a much better job at protecting Russell Wilson, who quietly flourished in October, posting a 72.5 Total QBR. It will simply be too tall of a task for Kirk Cousins to lead the ‘Skins to a victory at CenturyLink Field.
SEATTLE 34, Washington 23
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) vs Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
Spread: DAL -2.5 Over/Under: 53.5
DVOA: KC (5) > DAL (9)
YPP Differential: KC (12) < DAL (5)
Public Betting: KC 54%
Lost amid Kansas City’s 6-2 start has been the shaky performance from its defense. In terms of points allowed, the Chiefs’ 22.5 per game average (19th in the NFL) doesn’t look so bad. But the revealing stat is this: Kansas City is 30th in opponent yards per play. This bodes well for Dallas’ offense, which is 1st in the NFL in points per drive (2.59) and will benefit from Ezekiel Elliott’s services for at least one more week. Combined with Kansas City’s best pass rusher, Justin Houston, possibly missing this game with a knee injury, I like the Cowboys in a shoot-out.
DALLAS 30, Kansas City 27
Oakland Raiders (3-5) vs Miami Dolphins (4-3)
Spread: OAK -3 Over/Under: 44
DVOA: OAK (19) > MIA (31)
YPP Differential: OAK (22) > MIA (31)
Public Betting: OAK 67%
The Dolphins have the worst offense in the NFL — and those are head coach Adam Gase’s words, not mine! But obviously there are many stats to back up what Gase said after Miami’s 40-0 loss last Thursday night to Baltimore, including how the ‘Fins rank last in points per game…last in yards per play…and last in just about every other major category. I’ll take Derek Carr and the Raiders to secure a key road win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
OAKLAND 27, Miami 21
And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Nine…
- TAMPA BAY (+6.5) over New Orleans
- TEASER: CAROLINA (+9) over Atlanta & Kansas City vs Dallas OVER 47
- SEATTLE (-340) over Washington
- OAKLAND (-155) over Miami
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