Week Ten Edition
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Last Week: 3-3 (.500)
2017: 27-22 (.551)
*Total: 99-81-2 (.549)
*Total dates back to last season
Home team in italics
#24 Michigan State (+9.5) over #7 Penn State
You will notice a theme in this record-breaking edition of Spread Bet Saturday (it’s a record-breaking edition, by the way, because I’m making eleven picks–which is far more than usual, but justified given how many great games there are this weekend). I’m going to take a bunch of home underdogs. This game is ripe from a betting perspective because the general public expects the Nittany Lions to bounce back after their first loss against a Michigan State team coming off a loss of its own to Northwestern. But be wary of jumping into this reactionary water with 80% of the betting public: side with the House and take the Spartans to cover.
Texas A&M (+15.5) over #14 Auburn
I expect Auburn to win, especially considering it is coming off a bye after a resounding 52-20 win at Arkansas. But the Aggies, who played Alabama competitively in Tuscaloosa, losing just 27-19, should be strong enough to cover at Kyle Field.
#20 N.C. State (+7.5) over #4 Clemson
N.C. State has an efficient offense that ranks 13th in the nation according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Clemson, meanwhile, has failed to score over 30 points in three consecutive games. I’m not ballsy enough to take the Wolfpack to win outright, but I think they will challenge the defending champs.
Iowa (+17.5) over #6 Ohio State
Don’t let the fact that they are not ranked in the Top 25 affect your judgement: the Hawkeyes, who rank 28th in FPI, are capable of upsetting Ohio State. For starters, Iowa plays good defense, as it ranks 11th in the country in points against. Kirk Ferentz’s squad is also very formidable at home, where it is 4-1 this season and possesses a +14.4 point differential per game. Plus, let’s not overlook how this team a) owns a road victory over an Iowa State squad currently ranked 15th in the country and b) more importantly, had Penn State on the ropes until the game’s final possession in a heartbreaking 21-19 loss back in September.
Upset pick of the week: Iowa crushes Ohio State’s College Football Playoff hopes in a massive upset.
West Virginia (+2.5) over #15 Iowa State
Speaking of Iowa teams, I think this is a letdown spot for the Cyclones. With its win over TCU last weekend, Iowa State now has two victories over top-five opponents and has its sight set on a New Year’s Six bowl. But West Virginia is no pushover, particularly in Morgantown, as its offense ranks 11th in the nation according to FPI. I’ll take the home team in a quasi-upset.
#21 Stanford (+2.5) over #25 Washington State
Finally, I’m taking a road team! There is a huge disparity between where these two offenses rank in terms of yards per play. Stanford is 6th in the country (7.0 per play), while Washington State is just 69th (5.4). Give me the far more efficient offense every day of the week.
#8 TCU (-7) over Texas
The Longhorns’ 8th-ranked defense could keep things close. But TCU is far more balanced (24th in offense; 13th in defense, according to FPI), so I’ll take them to bounce back at home.
#19 LSU (+21.5) over #2 Alabama
This spread is a little high, right? LSU is far better than a couple of Alabama’s most recent opponents (i.e. Tennessee, Arkansas). The Tigers should be talented enough to hang around, at least for three quarters.
#13 Virginia Tech (-2.5) over #10 Miami
Here is my lone exception to my home underdog strategy for the weekend. There are some who think the undefeated Hurricanes are being unfairly underrated. I don’t believe that to be the case. Miami may be 7-0, but its last four victories have all been by eight points or fewer, including its 24-19 win last week over a 1-8 North Carolina squad. Just for reference, Virginia Tech beat that same UNC team 59-7! I’ll take the Hokies in this crucial ACC affair.
#22 Arizona (+7.5) over #17 USC
Everyone has overrated USC all season long. What has changed? Plus, Arizona’s offense ranks 4th in the nation in yards per play (7.3) and 6th in points per game (42.6). I’ll take the Wildcats to send Sam Darnold’s draft stock plunging down even further.
Game of the Week
#11 Oklahoma State (-2.5) over #5 Oklahoma
This matchup features arguably the two best offenses in the country. After all, the Sooners rank first in yards per play; the Cowboys rank third. So the question then becomes whether one of these defenses has a clear advantage. And the answer to that question is yes: Oklahoma State has the edge. The Cowboys have the nation’s 18th best defense in terms of opponent yards per play, while Oklahoma ranks just 62nd in that same category. Combined with the fact that this game is in Bedlam, I’ll take the Cowboys to position themselves for a potential CFB playoff run and knock out their rival in the process.
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