Week 6 Edition
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*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
***Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records Entering Week 6
Straight Up: 53-24 (.688) Last Week: 7-7 (.500) Total: 217-125-2 (.634)
Spread: 50-23-4 (.675) Last Week: 6-7-1 (.464) Total: 199-132-13 (.597)
Over/Under: 46-29-2 (.610) Last Week: 8-6 (.571) Total: 188-154-2 (.549)
Locks: 5-1 (.833) Last Week: 0-0 (.000) Total: 37-7 (.841)
Best Bets: 24-11 (.686) Last Week: 2-2 (.500) Total: 153-111-1 (.579)
*Note: Total records date back to 2016 season.
*Prediction for TNF: PHILADELPHIA 23, Carolina 20 (No Best Bets were placed)
New England Patriots (3-2) vs New York Jets (3-2)
Spread: NE -9.5 Over/Under: 47.5
DVOA: NE (13) > NYJ (26)
YPP Differential: NE (-0.7) < NYJ (-0.1)
Public Betting: NE 73%
Winners of three in a row, the Jets are technically one of the hottest teams in the NFL. So are the Patriots in trouble, particularly given concerns surrounding Tom Brady’s injured left shoulder? No, probably not. The Jets are still not a good club. In order to beat the Browns last week by merely a field goal, New York needed Cleveland to make not one, but two egregious mistakes on the Jets goal line (the Browns missed two field goals, as well).
New England will benefit from an extra few days of rest having played last Thursday night. And even though concerns remain regarding this Patriots defense, which still ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed, Brady’s left shoulder won’t hinder the New England offense, as the Pats will approach 40 points in a smooth win over the Jets.
*NEW ENGLAND 38, New York 17
Capital letters indicate pick with the spread
*Denotes LOCK
Cleveland Browns (0-5) vs Houston Texans (2-3)
Spread: HOU -9.5 Over/Under: 47
DVOA: CLE (32) < HOU (10)
YPP Differential: CLE (-0.2) > HOU (-0.3)
Public Betting: HOU 57%
The Browns absolutely made the right decision by benching rookie DeShone Kizer (32nd in Total QBR) in favor of second-year starter Kevin Hogan. The former Stanford quarterback could help keep Cleveland in this game against Houston considering how he completed 84% of his passes and threw for close to 200 yards in only a half of play against the Jets last weekend. This Texans defense, after all, is depleted after losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to season-ending injuries a week ago.
Nonetheless, Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense, which is averaging 34.3 points per game since the rookie took over at QB, shouldn’t have too much trouble against a Browns defense that ranks just 27th against the pass.
*HOUSTON 30, Cleveland 18
Miami Dolphins (2-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Spread: ATL -12.5 Over/Under: 45.5
DVOA: MIA (27) < ATL (11)
YPP Differential: MIA (-1.2) < ATL (1.2)
Public Betting: ATL 70%
Not only are the Falcons rested after a bye, but they’re playing a Miami team that literally can’t score. You know how many points, defensive touchdowns excluded, the Dolphins have scored over the past three weeks? Fifteen! Don’t expect Jay Cutler and Miami’s 32nd-ranked offense to keep up with Matt Ryan and company.
*ATLANTA 30, Miami 13
Detroit Lions (3-2) vs New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Spread: NO -4 Over/Under: 50
DVOA: DET (9) > NO (18)
YPP Differential: DET (-0.8) < NO (-0.2)
Public Betting: DET 58%
The Lions are beat up. Matthew Stafford could barely plant his right foot after he suffered an ankle injury during their game against Carolina last Sunday; and reports out of Detroit are that he hasn’t looked great in practice this week, either. In addition to Stafford, a few other impact players–like defensive end Ziggy Ansah and offensive guard T.J. Lang–are listed as questionable. New Orleans is the far superior team on the offensive side of the ball as is: it ranks 6th in yards per play while the Lions rank 30th. The Saints will win their third game in a row.
NEW ORLEANS 34, Detroit 17
Green Bay Packers (4-1) vs Minnesota Vikings (3-2)
Spread: GB -3 Over/Under: 45
DVOA: GB (7) > MIN (15)
YPP Differential: GB (0.0) < MIN (0.6)
Public Betting: GB 83%
Speaking of banged-up teams, the Vikings will be without their two best offensive players, quarterback Sam Bradford and wide receiver Stefon Diggs, against the Packers in this crucial NFC North tilt. But this doesn’t necessarily spell doom: backup Case Keenum (4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions) has been surprisingly good this season, as Minnesota is 2-2 with him under center. With that said, the 4-1 Packers are starting to get healthy and I’ll take Aaron Rodgers over Keenum with a 3-point spread every day of the week.
GREEN BAY 27, Minnesota 20
Chicago Bears (1-4) vs Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Spread: BAL -6.5 Over/Under: 39
DVOA: CHI (28) < BAL (17)
YPP Differential: CHI (-0.2) > BAL (-0.6)
Public Betting: BAL 60%
This matchup features two of the league’s worst air attacks, so don’t expect many points. It will be interesting to see whether Jordan Howard and the Chicago rushing attack (9th in yards per carry) can have success against Baltimore’s tough front seven. It may be crucial for the Bears because their receivers are bad. Kendall Wright, their leading wideout, has just 18 receptions through 5 games. Baltimore’s corners must be licking their chops.
I don’t trust Joe Flacco and Baltimore’s below-average offense to blowout Chicago, but the Ravens should win this game. They’re at home and have the stronger defense.
Baltimore 20, CHICAGO 16
San Francisco 49ers (0-5) vs Washington Redskins (2-2)
Spread: WSH -11 Over/Under: 46.5
DVOA: SF (29) < WSH (4)
YPP Differential: SF (-0.3) < WSH (0.7)
Public Betting: WSH 50%
The 49ers have been more competitive than their record suggests. San Francisco has lost its last 4 games by a combined 11 points. The problem for Kyle Shanahan’s squad, however, is that it has been reliant on solid defensive showings. Brian Hoyer and the 49ers offense ranks just 24th in points per drive (1.57). That won’t cut it against Kirk Cousins and the Redskins’ above-average offense. I’ll still take San Francisco to keep it within eleven points, but there’s little doubt who will this game.
*Washington 27, SAN FRANCISCO17
Los Angeles Rams (3-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
Spread: JAC -2.5 Over/Under: 42.5
DVOA: LA (8) < JAC (5)
YPP Differential: LA (+0.8) > JAC (+0.2)
Public Betting: LA 52%
Jared Goff should struggle against one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. But here’s the key for Los Angeles on Sunday: head coach Sean McVay must not neglect his star running back like Steelers coach Mike Tomlin did last week. Pittsburgh only gave Le’Veon Bell 15 carries against Jacksonville’s weak run defense that ranks dead last in the league in opponent yards per rush attempt. Meanwhile, the Steelers let Ben Roethlisberger throw the ball a staggering 55 times. Clearly that strategy didn’t work out….
Equipped with the NFL’s third-leading rusher in Todd Gurley, I expect McVay to craft a game plan centered around exploiting the Jaguars’ rush defense, allowing Los Angeles to notch its fourth victory.
LOS ANGELES 23, Jacksonville 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) vs Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
Spread: TB -1.5 Over/Under: 45.5
DVOA: TB (23) > ARZ (30)
YPP Differential: TB (+0.2) > ARZ (-0.1)
Public Betting: TB 64%
The Cardinals are the only team in the league that has failed to cover a single spread (0-5). I bet they’ll get off the schneid against Tampa, though. The Buccaneers’ defense is allowing close to 40 yards per drive through four games — that’s the 3rd most in the NFL. If Carson Palmer manages to protect the ball (granted, that’s a big if ), Arizona will put up enough points to beat the ‘Bucs.
ARIZONA 27, Tampa Bay 24
Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) vs Oakland Raiders (2-3)
Spread: OAK -4.5 Over/Under: 51
DVOA: LAC (24) < OAK (21)
YPP Differential: LAC (+0.3) > OAK (-0.6)
Public Betting: N/A
Derek Carr projects to return after a one week absence, so that’s enough of a reason for me to take the Raiders. Plus, having lost three games in a row, you have to imagine that Oakland is motivated to win this game — another loss and it might have too much ground to make up in order to secure a playoff spot.
With that said, it’s worth mentioning that the numbers don’t look good for the Raiders. Even when you dismiss Carr’s absence last week, Oakland has one of the worst net yards per drive differential’s in the NFL. In other words, its offense has severely underperformed and its defense remains a nightmare. Look for Los Angeles to cover the spread.
Oakland 24, LOS ANGELES 23
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) vs Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
Spread: KC -4 Over/Under: 47
DVOA: PIT (2) < KC (1)
YPP Differential: PIT (+0.5) < KC (+0.8)
Public Betting: KC 63%
Having played the league’s sixth-easiest slate of opposing offenses through five weeks, this will be the first true test for a Steelers defense that ranks second in opponent points per drive and third in opponent yards per play. I don’t think it will be up for the challenge. Stud rookie running back Kareem Hunt is the real deal: he leads the NFL in rushing yards, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced, according to Pro Football Focus. Alex Smith is also playing at an MVP-level. He leads all qualified starters in quarterback rating and has yet to turn the ball over.
But are we overlooking the Steelers based on their poor performance against Jacksonville last week? Let’s not forget what happened in last year’s AFC Divisional Round when Le’Veon Bell had 30 carries for 170 yards, allowing Pittsburgh to maintain close to 35 minutes of possession time and beat the Chiefs 18-16 at Arrowhead. Having abandoned their running game last week, I bet the Steelers will try to put the game in Bell’s hands once again.
It won’t be enough for Pittsburgh to win, though. The Chiefs are better than they were last season. They’ll find a way to move to 6-0.
Kansas City 24, PITTSBURGH 22
New York Giants (0-5) vs Denver Broncos (3-1)
Spread: DEN -12 Over/Under: 39
DVOA: NYG (25) < DEN (20)
YPP Differential: NYG (-0.2) < DEN +0.7)
Public Betting: DEN 72%
Having lost literally their entire receiving corps, the Giants will essentially field a JV offense against the Broncos. How will Eli Manning and company move the ball against this unit that ranks first in run defense and remains one of the stingiest against the pass, as well? Yeah, I’m not sure, either. New York will need a Herculean effort from its D just for this game to be competitive.
*DENVER 27, New York 6
And lastly, here are my Best Bets for Week Six…
- PARLAY: NEW ENGLAND (-450) over New York & HOUSTON (-450) over Cleveland
- PARLAY: ATLANTA (-900) over Miami, WASHINGTON (-500) over San Francisco, & DENVER (-700) over New York
- New England vs New York OVER 47.5
- NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Detroit
- TEASER: Green Bay vs Minnesota OVER 39.5 & LOS ANGELES (-11) over Oakland
- LOS ANGELES (+2.5) over Jacksonville
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