Week Seven Edition
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Last Week: 2-5 (.286)
2017: 20-18 (.527)
*Total: 92-77-2 (.544)
*Total dates back to last season
Home team in italics
Kansas State (+6.5) over #6 TCU
Despite ranking 93rd in opponent yards per play, the Horned Frogs have beaten two ranked opponents (#6 Oklahoma State and #23 West Virginia) over the past two weeks. However, not only did they allow a total of 907 yards, but they were out-gained in each of those matchups. The majority of bettors (76% of the public) are taking an overvalued TCU team on the road–I like Kansas State to cover the spread and pull off the upset.
#24 West Virginia (-3.5) over Texas Tech
This is a conservative spread for a home team that ranks in the top ten nationally in yards per play. I like the Mountaineers by at least a touchdown.
#10 Auburn (-7) over LSU
Auburn is averaging 48 points per game in SEC play this season. 48 points per game! And you want to know what’s almost as impressive? The Tigers rank 7th in the nation defensively, as well. LSU is erratic (they lost to Troy two weeks ago), so I’ll take Auburn to cover, even though the game is in Baton Rouge.
Utah (+13) over #13 USC
USC simply hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations. Despite their 5-1 record overall, the Trojans are just 1-5 against the spread. I think they’ll drop to 1-6 in this category on Saturday night. Utah’s defense is solid–they rank 21st in the country in opponent yards per play and just held a very good Stanford offense to 23 points. The Utes will hang around at the Coliseum.
#23 Stanford (-9.5) over Oregon
Braxton Burmeister’s first start at quarterback in place of injured starter Justin Herbert did not go well last week, as Oregon gained just 277 yards of offense in a 33-10 loss at home versus Washington State. Stanford has a highly-ranked offense in terms of yards per play (4th in the country), so I doubt the Ducks will be able to keep up.
Game of the Week
#12 Oklahoma (-8.5) over Texas
Since the Sooners beat Ohio State in Columbus, they’ve been disappointing. Of course, last Saturday they fell to a mediocre Iowa State team at home; but let’s not forget that they beat an 0-5 Baylor team by just 8 points the week before. So which Sooners team will show up? Tough to say, but I still trust Baker Mayfield and company. Oklahoma ranks 1st in the nation in yards per play, and I don’t think Texas’ defense will do much to slow them down considering the Longhorns have allowed over 40 points on two occasions this season. Oklahoma will roll in this latest edition of the Red River Rivalry.
