Week Three Edition
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Last Week: 5-2 (.714)
2017: 12-7 (.631)
*Total: 84-66-2 (.559)
*Total dates back to last season
Home team in italics
Purdue (+10.5) over #8 Michigan
I’ll take the home underdog because the Boilermakers have the superior quarterback. That doesn’t necessarily mean I think Purdue quarterback David Blough is great (although he is completing 76.1% of his passes this season). I just don’t trust Michigan QB Wilton Speight, who, in contrast, is completing only 54.5% of his passes and has had trouble protecting the football–remember his horrible first-half a few weeks ago against Florida? The Wolverines will find a way to win, but Purdue will keep it within ten points.
California (+17) over #5 USC
It looks like USC is the preseason darling who will routinely be overvalued when it comes to the spread this season. Cal’s offense, averaging 31.7 points per game, has propelled them to a 3-0 start, while the Trojans’ defense has allowed roughly 27 points per game through three weeks. USC will be fine because it has Sam Darnold, but Cal is the pick against the spread.
#16 TCU (+13.5) over #6 Oklahoma State
Here’s why I’m hammering TCU with the spread. First, the Horned Frogs returned more starters than any power-five team in the nation this season. Translation: they have valuable experience. Second, the advanced analytics love them. ESPN’s Football Power Index has TCU pegged as the 11th best team in the nation. Oklahoma State, for the record, is only slotted a few spots above them at eight.
And lastly, let’s look at how bettors are irrationally wagering on this contest. The Cowboys are good, no doubt about it. But everyone is overrating them simply because they blew out Pittsburgh last week on a televised ESPN game. The sharps have clearly noticed this recency bias: despite 72% of action coming in on OK State, the line has actually dropped from -14 to -12.5 in favor of TCU. Side with the sharp action and hammer the Horned Frogs.
Iowa (+13.5) over #4 Penn State
The Nittany Lions have looked outstanding thus far. They’re the only team in the nation to rank in the top ten in both yards per play and opponent yards per play. The one caveat, though, is that they haven’t played anybody yet. Confronting a hostile atmosphere in Iowa City, historically a tough place to play, will be Penn State’s first challenge of the season. The Nittany Lions will ultimately get through unscathed, but it won’t be easy.
#7 Washington (-11.5) over Colorado
Tough for me to swallow 11.5 points on the road, but I will because Washington has one of the best defenses in the country. The Huskies should stifle a Colorado offense averaging just 5.2 yards per play (78th in the nation).
UCLA (+7.5) over Stanford
No brainer here: Josh Rosen and UCLA’s explosive offense (averaging 49.7 points per game!) will score in bunches against Stanford’s suspect D, which ranks just 70th in the nation in opponent yards per play. Don’t be surprised if the Bruins win outright.
Game of the Week
#17 Mississippi State (+4.5) over #11 Georgia
Everyone slept on Mississippi State before the season. Yet despite a 3-0 start, coach Dan Mullen’s squad is still not on enough people’s radars. As I said last week when I predicted they would beat LSU, the Bulldogs have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and a solid, experienced quarterback in junior Nick Fitzgerald. Plus, they are ranked 10th in FPI. For these reasons, it perplexes me why Mississippi State is an underdog against a Georgia team that is inferior according to FPI and without its starting quarterback, Jacob Eason. For the second week in a row, I’ll take the nation’s most underrated team not only with the points, but to beat a higher-ranked opponent outright.
