Welcome to the latest edition of The Sunday Recap, a weekly column dedicated to thoughts on the previous day’s NFL action! Here are my top takeaways from yesterday’s games.
Brady and Patriots’ Message to Critics: “Now You’s Can’t Leave”
It’s hilarious how one mediocre performance can change so many people’s perceptions. Ten days ago, so-called “experts” were actually claiming the end was near for 40-year-old Tom Brady, as if a seven-month reprieve would spark a dramatic decline in form from a player that broke nearly every individual record in Super Bowl history the previous February. But yes, in the wake of New England’s stunning loss to Kansas City on opening night, in which Brady completed just 16 of 36 passes, there were headlines such as “Is Tom Brady Finally Done?”; tweets from pundits like Fox Sports 1’s Rob Parker saying, “Many pooh-poohed when I said Tom Brady wouldn’t beat Father Time. In opener, Brady looked like he’s headed to AARP Hall of Fame, not Canton;” and hot takes on ESPN from the likes of Max Kellerman, who said, “if you love Tom Brady, take a good look, because this season is the last you will see of him. He will never be Tom Brady again after this.”
Brady’s response on Sunday to all these fools was to channel his inner-Chazz Palminteri from A Bronx Tale and cooly state “now you’s can’t leave” before tearing New Orleans’ sorry defense to pieces. His final numbers on the day: 30-39, 447 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 91.3 Total QBR. Yeah…I think the “Brady is in decline!” argument can be put to rest.
Looking at New England’s performance as a whole, I noted in my reaction to the Pats’ opening night loss how resiliency in the face of adversity has always been “an enduring attribute for the Patriots over their unprecedented run of success.” For that reason, I suppose it wasn’t too surprising to see New England rebound with such a dominant victory. What was really stunning, however, is how the Patriots’ defense stepped up without Dont’a Hightower, undoubtedly their most valuable defender. All was not perfect, but limiting Drew Brees and the Saints to just thirteen points before New Orleans tacked on a garbage-time TD late in the fourth quarter was an accomplishment, especially when you consider how bad Matt Patricia’s unit looked against the Chiefs.
The concern now is health, as Gronk, Chris Hogan, and new receiver Phillip Dorsett all appeared to go down with some sort of injury on Sunday. But with back-to-back home games against two anemic offenses, Houston and Carolina, the ultimate takeaway from New England’s commanding win is that they are back on track for a 3-1 first quarter and likely a 12-win season. The sour taste from the Kansas City loss is basically gone, and there’s little doubt anymore that the Patriots will once again be in serious Super Bowl contention, assuming they stay relatively healthy.
Hey, Hey, Hey, Hey! Don’t you (forget about Denver)
Seriously, Denver fans should be blasting Simple Minds right now. Just two years removed from a Super Bowl title, Denver made it clear to the rest of the league during their 42-17 win over Dallas that a) their defense is still phenomenal and b) Trevor Siemian is by no means a below-average quarterback.
As I said in my predictions for this weekend’s games, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have performed noticeably worse against teams that finished in the top-10 in defensive DVOA last season. However, I didn’t think they were going to perform that bad against a Denver defense that recently finished atop Football Outsiders’ noted efficiency rankings. Most revealing stat of all: only nine yards on eight carries for ‘Zeke, arguably the best running back in football. Denver’s relative weakness on defense last year was its inability to successfully stop the run (they ranked 21st). If they’re able to combine a stout run-defense with their sensational pass-defense, which held Dak Prescott to just 4.8 yards per attempt, the Broncos’ defense will be similar to the 2015 unit that carried them to the Super Bowl.
It’s also not crazy to suggest that this Denver team can’t be better than the 2015 squad. Reason why: Trevor Siemian is actually pretty good. In fact, I’ve always been in the Siemian camp. People forget that the former 7th-rounder was hampered by a shoulder injury throughout last season that was more serious than originally reported and ultimately required offseason surgery. Look at his numbers before and after the injury he suffered during Denver’s Week 4 game against Tampa Bay:
- Before injury (4 games): 67.3% completion percentage, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
- After injury (10 games): 57.4% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
Clearly Siemian went from being a productive player to a mediocre one after his injury. Now healthy, we’re back to seeing the Siemian capable of tossing four touchdown passes, like he did on Sunday. And since stable quarterback play is something the Broncos can count on moving forward, we need to reevaluate our projections for Denver. The Broncos are clearly one of the strongest teams in the AFC, and though they play in a tough division, it’s likely they’ll return to the playoffs and be a difficult team to beat come January.
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Here are two quarterbacks that need to be benched NOW
I’ve seen enough after two weeks. Quarterback changes clearly need to be made in both Jacksonville and Chicago. For the Jaguars, a shakeup under center should have been made before the year. Despite an impressive win over the Texans in Week One, Blake Bortles has played exactly as one would’ve expected after his horrific preseason. Through two games he has compiled an average of just 174 passing yards and a completion percentage well below 60 percent (56%). Turnovers were once again a problem for Bortles yesterday against the Titans, too. He threw two crucial interceptions while the score was within just three points; and in typical Bortles fashion, he threw a garbage-time touchdown with Jacksonville down 37-9 to pad his stats.
Bortles has overstayed his welcome as Jacksonville’s franchise quarterback. If they want have any chance to steal the AFC South, head coach Doug Marrone must turn to veteran Chad Henne, a far more stable option than the erratic and underwhelming former third overall pick.
The Bears, meanwhile, should put an end to the Mike Glennon experiment. The $18.5 million in guaranteed money given to him over the offseason is a sunk cost. Chicago has averaged just twelve points per game over the first two weeks with Glennon at the helm–that is not going to cut it, particularly when Glennon himself has posted a putrid Total QBR that ranks 26th in the NFL.
Based largely on what I saw in the preseason, Mitchell Trubisky, the number two overall pick in last April’s draft, clearly gives the Bears a better chance to win. He threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in August (Glennon was just 2 TD/2 INT) while averaging over 1.5 more yards per attempt than Glennon. There’s also no question that Trubisky has superior arm strength and mobility. Unless Chicago is content with tanking this year, they need to make this necessary change.
Other Observations
- So far, so good. No Super Bowl hangover for Atlanta…Matt Ryan’s yards per attempt figure in 2016: 9.26…through two games in 2017: 9.88…the Falcons’ offense is still the best in the NFL…their young defense continues to develop, as well…Desmond Trufant, Atlanta’s number one cornerback who missed the end of last season to injury, has made an immediate impact upon his return to the Falcons’ defense…his interception at the end of the first half, and his scoop-and-score to start the second, put the game out of reach…also, what a job by the Falcons’ pass-rush…I can’t remember a time when I saw Aaron Rodgers take more crushing hits…Atlanta, through two weeks, is undoubtedly the strongest team in the NFC.
- Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense is what I thought it was…bad!…the Packers couldn’t stop Matt Ryan and the Falcons last season, and they still couldn’t stop them on Sunday Night…Aaron Rodgers clearly can’t be burdened to carry the Packers every time they play an elite offense…earning home-field advantage will be crucial for Green Bay…maybe a frozen and snowy Lambeau is the Packers’ only hope of slowing down a team like the Falcons.
- Dallas’ defense was also exposed on Sunday…we got a better sense this weekend of what Dallas actually looks like on the defensive side of the ball…the Cowboys lost a majority of their secondary over the offseason…makes sense why Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas had their way on Sunday…I wouldn’t read too much into their poor offensive showing, however…when it comes to making the playoffs and contending in the NFC, Dak and company should still be fine moving forward.
- Judging solely on the past two weeks, Kansas City is the best team in the NFL…another strong win for the Chiefs…they handled Philadelphia’s fearsome front-seven well…running back Kareem Hunt, who scored two more touchdowns on Sunday, looks to be the real deal…and their pass-rush, which registered six sacks, is markedly improved and dangerous.
- Carolina can’t score…the Panthers failed to reach the end zone on Sunday, but managed to hang on 9-3 to beat Buffalo…surprised they haven’t been able to get Christian McCaffrey (10 yards on 8 carries) going yet…luckily for Carolina, it has a favorable schedule to start the season…with New Orleans on tap next week, a deceptive 3-0 start is a strong possibility.
- Baltimore’s defense: 10 takeaways (8 of them interceptions) through two weeks…not a bad start for that unit…next week they’ll face Blake Bortles, the king of interceptions, in London.
- A win is a win, I suppose, but Arizona looks shaky…the Cardinals clearly missed David Johnson against a weak Indianapolis defense…averaged just 3.3 yards per carry as a team…Carson Palmer continues to be turnover-prone, too…the Cardinals will need their defense to carry them…the good news, though, is that this looks like a down year for the NFC West.
- Speaking of the NFC West, Seattle’s offense is a major concern…despite allowing only nine points, the Seahawks struggled to beat Brian Hoyer and the 49ers…not sure what to make of that…can’t imagine Seattle making a deep run with such a horrific offensive line.
- I think the Chargers are actually cursed…Los Angeles kicker Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-winning kick with five seconds left to seal another heartbreaking Chargers loss…they’re now 4-16 in their previous 20 one-score contests…that is unbelievable…sooner or later, you’d think their luck would turn around…but now I’m beginning to wonder…
- And lastly, the Coliseum, once again, was empty for the Rams game…pro football in Los Angeles everybody!
Monday Night Prediction
Detroit Lions (1-0) vs New York Giants (0-1)
Spread: NYG -3 Over/Under: 42
DVOA: DET (13) > NYG (14)
Public Betting: DET 58%
If Odell Beckham plays, then the Giants have a good chance. I doubt that he’ll be 100 percent, though, given the severity of his ankle injury (Beckham himself said the normal recovery time is 6-8 weeks; it’s only been roughly four since the injury). Nonetheless, New York’s defense should keep them in the game. But I still trust Matthew Stafford more than I trust Eli Manning and the Giants’ pedestrian offense. I’ll hesitantly side with the Lions on the road.
Detroit 23, New York 20
