Welcome to another year of The Sunday Recap, a weekly column dedicated to thoughts on the previous day’s NFL action! Here are my top takeaways from this weekend’s games.
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The Texans obviously have a QB problem, but the real story from Sunday’s biggest upset was Jacksonville’s defense
Houston didn’t exactly play like I thought they would yesterday. To everyone’s surprise, the lowly Jaguars registered a commanding 29-7 win over a Texans team that is now embroiled in a quarterback controversy. Head coach Bill O’Brien rightfully yanked starter Tom Savage after Houston managed just 79 yards of total offense while falling behind 19-0 at the half. Rookie Deshaun Watson, who replaced Savage, wasn’t much better, though. The former Clemson star looked good early, as he led the Texans to their only points of the day on his first drive as a professional. But by game’s end, he finished with a lower yards per attempt mark (4.4) than Savage (4.8).
O’Brien certainly has a tough decision to make–and he doesn’t have much time. Houston’s next game is this Thursday night. Should he go back to Savage, who has still yet to throw a regular season touchdown pass in his career, or turn to Watson? Before I give my opinion, let me say this: in defense of both quarterbacks, neither had much time to throw against the Jaguars. Houston’s offensive line allowed ten sacks, with six coming in the first half. If the Texans’ pass-protection continues to be this bad, perhaps it doesn’t matter who is at quarterback for Houston. However, it’s likely that Watson, who is mobile, can be more effective than Savage behind this shaky o-line. Plus, it was clear on Sunday that Houston’s offense, as a whole, was more productive with Watson (168 yards of offense) rather than Savage. Watson, therefore, would be my choice to start on Thursday, if I was O’Brien.
But enough about the Texans: the real story from this game was Jacksonville’s defense. As mentioned, they piled up ten sacks, with four coming exclusively from two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Calais Campbell. Not only did they hold Houston to 7 points, but they limited them to just 2.9 yards per play, as well–that figure was easily the lowest of the day.
This performance was not a fluke, either. The Jaguars quietly had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season, ranking 6th against the run, 5th against the pass, and 4th overall in opponent yards per play. Remarkably, Jacksonville’s D was also very inexperienced last season, with rookies like safety Jalen Ramsey and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue playing pivotal roles. But clearly these guys like Ramsey, Ngakoue, edge rusher Dante Fowler (who missed all of last season after being selected with the third overall pick in 2015), and linebacker Myles Jack (who led Jacksonville in tackles yesterday) are studs.
With a committed offensive game plan centered around pounding rookie Leonard Fournette and veteran Chris Ivory, Jacksonville will play in many close, low-scoring games this season. They’ll be competitive, possibly more so than any pundits anticipated.
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Ravens affirm defensive identity by shutting out Cincinnati, while Green Bay and Dallas impress
Substitute the names and numbers on jerseys and you would’ve thought Baltimore’s famed defense from 2000 was on the field yesterday. That’s how good Terrell Suggs and the Ravens were in their shutout win over the Bengals. Their top-five run unit from last season opened the new campaign by stifling yet another backfield, holding highly-touted rookie Joe Mixon to just nine yards on eight carries. And in the passing game, Andy Dalton literally couldn’t get anything going against a surprisingly stout Ravens secondary. Whenever he and the Bengals did reach Baltimore territory, the Ravens always came up with a takeaway (five in all) to kill Cincinnati’s momentum.
Amid concerns surrounding Joe Flacco’s health throughout the preseason, Baltimore reminded everyone that its defense is one of the league’s best. Therefore, we shouldn’t sleep on these always formidable Ravens. They’re well-coached; they have a steady quarterback who has thrived in the postseason; and, as we saw yesterday, they have a defense that could be the AFC’s best.
With three consecutive home games on tap over the next few weeks, including tilts against Cleveland and Jacksonville, two of the league’s worst offenses, Baltimore will use a hot start to gain a firm grasp on a playoff spot. Come January, I certainly wouldn’t bet heavily against a team with such a stellar defense and a quarterback who owns a 10-5 playoff record.
Over in the NFC, two contenders known for their elite offenses combined to not allow a single touchdown. Green Bay’s defense, who was last seen getting torched by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the NFC Championship, held Seattle to just 225 yards of offense to earn a hard-fought 17-9 win. The Packers front-seven practically rented out a condo in the Seahawks backfield. Every other play, Russell Wilson seemed to be scrambling for his life with the likes of defensive tackle Mike Daniels and linebacker Nick Perry bearing down. Good thing Wilson is mobile; otherwise, Green Bay would’ve compiled far more than the three sacks and six tackles for loss they ended with on the day.
Meanwhile, Dallas successfully extracted a bit of revenge on the Giants, who swept the Cowboys last season, by completely stifling their offense. Granted, Odell Beckham did not suit up for New York. Yet Dallas’ defense, which replaced a majority of the starters in its secondary, deserves credit for limiting the Giants to a meager 4.4 yards per play and 13 first downs. Plus, the Cowboys also came up with big plays when they needed to, such as when defensive back Anthony Brown quashed any hopes of a New York comeback by intercepting Eli Manning midway through the fourth quarter.
Are each of these defenses better than we thought? Too early to tell. Unlike the Jaguars and Ravens, who were very good statistically last season, the Packers and Cowboys have had serious trouble stopping quality offenses. Let’s not overreact based on what we saw on Sunday. Seattle’s offensive line is atrocious, so it wasn’t too surprising to see Green Bay’s defensive line dominate. I also wasn’t high on the Giants’ offense entering the season. They’ve now been held under 20 points for seven consecutive games, dating back to last year; Dallas is clearly not the first team to hold this New York offense in check. Again, let’s not overreact. We need more information before reevaluating Green Bay and Dallas.
Other observations
- Boy do I love Philadelphia’s front-seven…Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham were bearing down on Kirk Cousins all day long…I thought Cox’s fumble return to seal the game, however, should’ve been ruled an incompletion…would’ve loved to see my friend Dylan’s reaction to that moment (he’s a die-hard ‘Skins fan who wouldn’t react too well to a questionable call like that).
- Disappointing start for Tennessee…they’ve been projected by many to be a dark horse in the AFC this year…16 points against a suspect Raiders defense is certainly an underwhelming start for Marcus Mariota and company.
- Seems like Los Angelenos forgot about the Rams opener…announced attendance was 60,000…these pictures suggest otherwise…by the looks of those photos, I’d wager that maybe 30,000 were at the Coliseum yesterday…so it looks like the Rams will need to continue winning games by five touchdowns in order to get more attention!
- During one of my four fantasy drafts last week, I said that I didn’t think David Johnson should be the number one overall pick…my theory was that teams would center their game-plans around stopping Arizona’s superstar, and therefore limit his production…only one game, but I was right on Sunday…Johnson disappointed his fantasy owners by posting just 23 rushing yards on 11 carries (although he did have 68 receiving yards)…apparently he’s also now supposed to miss the next eight weeks with a wrist injury, too…obviously I didn’t predict that would happen!…fantasy football sure is frustrating.
- Matt Forte is slow…my housemate Ray was saying it all during the Jets game…16 yards on 6 carries…he’s 31-years-old, though, what else can one expect?…I hope the Jets turn to Bilal Powell, who’s on two of my fantasy teams, over the next few weeks.
- Not a bad performance by rookie DeShone Kizer…put it this way: I’ve seen plenty of rookie quarterback debuts that have been far worse…have to give coach Hue Jackson and the Browns credit for hanging with the defending AFC North champs.
- Speaking of the Steelers, Pittsburgh’s close win over Cleveland, as well as Atlanta’s tight victory over Chicago, show how competitive the NFL is…the Steelers and Falcons were two of the league’s four conference finalists last season…the Bears and Browns, meanwhile, were two of the league’s worst teams…I’m still processing my Patriots’ shocking loss to the Chiefs, but at least it’s comforting to know that plenty of other contenders have flaws, as well.
- And lastly, it’s nice to see Marshawn Lynch back…looks like a year away from football served him well…he was barreling over Tennessee defenders late in the fourth quarter, which allowed Oakland to control the clock and maintain its one-score lead…Lynch’s physical running should continue to provide an added dimension to an already potent Raiders offense.
Monday Night Prediction(s)
New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3 Over/Under: 48
’16 DVOA: NO (21) < MIN (20)
Public Betting: NO 71%
Key stat: Minnesota was third in the NFL last season in opponent yards per pass attempt. In other words, their secondary can contain Drew Brees and the Saints’ passing attack. Combined with Sam Bradford and the Vikings offense taking advantage of New Orleans’ weak defense, I like Minnesota to take care of business on its home turf.
Minnesota 31, New Orleans 23
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -3 Over/Under: 43
’16 DVOA: LAC (19) < DEN (14)
Public Betting: LAC 52%
One of my bold predictions for this season is that the Chargers will make the playoffs after going 5-11 in ’16, so I guess I’ll side with them in the MNF nightcap. Von Miller and that Broncos defense is certainly still formidable, but with all of Los Angeles’ key offensive weapons (i.e. Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon) healthy to start the year, I think Phillip Rivers will lead the Chargers to an upset.
Los Angeles 24, Denver 20
what a fun it was to watch the match..Green Bay thumbs up