Opening Night Edition
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots
Spread: NE -9 Over/Under: 48.5
’16 DVOA: KC (6) < NE (1)
Public Betting: NE 67%
It will likely be a tall task for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to stride into Foxboro and beat the defending champs tonight. Get this: an AFC opponent hasn’t won a game at Gillette Stadium that Tom Brady has started and completed since the 2012 AFC Championship! And the last time these two particular teams met, the Patriots handled Kansas City with ease, surging to a 21-6 lead before holding on for a deceptive 27-20 win in the 2015 Divisional Round.
To their credit, however, the Chiefs are a solid team who played well on the road last season. The most impressive thing about Kansas City, without a doubt, is that they tend to control the turnover battle. Since Reid and Alex Smith joined the franchise in 2013, the Chiefs have finished in the top two of turnover margin three of the past four years, including the previous two. They don’t make mistakes and they force their opponents into mistakes. What a terrific recipe for success. It’s also worth mentioning that Kansas City has won in a few difficult environments recently: their resume from 2016 includes wins at Oakland, Carolina, Denver, and Atlanta.
The problem with Kansas City is that they have trouble pressuring the passer. The Chiefs have a quality defense overall, particularly against the pass (they allowed the fourth lowest opponent quarterback rating in 2016). However, they finished just 31st in sack percentage last season. That figure obviously doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. New England has arguably the best passing attack in the NFL, and Brady is well-known for picking apart defenses when given enough time. We saw this occur in that 2015 playoff meeting. Brady, who threw for over 300 yards, was hardly touched the entire afternoon, as Kansas City didn’t register even a single sack.
Perhaps the return of Justin Houston, the Chiefs’ best edge-rusher who missed most of last season, will help bolster Kansas City’s pass-rush. It also remains to be seen whether New England will quickly overcome the loss of Julian Edelman, Brady’s most trusted target who caught ten passes for 100 yards in that 2015 playoff victory. Nonetheless, we’re still likely to see the Patriots have their way offensively against the Chiefs once again. There are simply too many impact skill-position players, like Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks, for Kansas City to contain. And more importantly, the Chiefs are unlikely to find a successful way to disrupt Brady.
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