Wild Card Edition
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records Entering Playoffs
Straight Up: 155-99-2 (.609)
Last Week: 10-6
Spread: 142-105-9 (.572)
Last Week: 8-8
Over/Under: 135-121 (.527)
Last Week: 11-5
Locks: 30-6 (.833)
Last Week: 2-0
Best Bets: 121-95-1 (.559)
Last Week: 5-7
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#5 Oakland Raiders vs #4 Houston Texans
Spread: HOU -3.5 Over/Under: 36.5
’16 DVOA: OAK (13) > HOU (27)
Public Betting: HOU 59%
The Houston Texans are not a good football team. In fact, many stats actually point to the Texans being below average. Just look at their point differential (-49), which ranks 26th in the NFL, or their DVOA, which ranks 27th. None of this really matters, though, because Houston is in the playoffs. And luckily for Bill O’Brien’s squad, his eighth ranked defense will face rookie quarterback Connor Cook, who will be making his first start in place of both Derek Carr and Matt McGloin.
For the record, Oakland is no juggernaut, either. The Raiders are not very good defensively, as they rank 21st in defensive DVOA and an even worse 32nd in opponent yards per play. While Oakland does have a few explosive weapons on the offensive side of the ball, they’ll likely struggle to move the ball without Carr under center. Plus, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Connor Cook will become the first quarterback ever to make his first start in a playoff game.
Brock Osweiler had success moving the ball against the Raiders when these teams met in Mexico City back in November, posting his best Total QBR (82.7) of the season. You still may have to avert your eyes from the screen at times while watching these two quarterbacks play, but Osweiler will “outduel” Cook and somehow lead the Texans to a playoff victory.
Houston 20, Oakland 13
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#6 Detroit Lions vs #3 Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -8 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: DET (29) < SEA (14)
Public Betting: DET 60%
Speaking of teams that don’t deserve to be in the playoffs, the Lions–who rank just 29th in Total DVOA and have a negative net yards per play differential (-0.4)–project to have their hands full against the Seahawks. Seattle may not be playing their best football of late, but they’re still ranked 12th in yards per play and 4th in opponent yards per play. They’ll also be facing a Lions defense ranked 32nd against the pass and 30th in sack percentage, which means that Russell Wilson should have himself a good game.
With that said, sizable underdogs like the Lions have done well in the playoffs of late. Over the past 25 NFL playoff games, underdogs are 14-10-1 (.580) against the spread. ‘Dogs of more than 4 points have performed even better, going 11-7 (.611) over this same time frame. Based on this information, I think Matthew Stafford and the Lions could keep things close. But I’ll still take the Seahawks to win handily. The stats say this is a mismatch, as the Seahawks have the far superior net yards per play differential. Home teams with that advantage have gone 11-2 over the past three postseasons. And speaking of home teams, let’s not forget that that the Seahawks are undefeated in home playoff games during the Pete Carroll era.
*Seattle 27, Detroit 17
*LOCK
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#6 Miami Dolphins vs #5 Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -10.5 Over/Under: 45.5
’16 DVOA: MIA (16) < PIT (3)
Public Betting: PIT 53%
After the Dolphins trounced Pittsburgh back when these teams met in October, I see a different result this time around. Miami ranks a respectable 17th in defensive DVOA, but struggles to defend the run. Even with Ndamukong Suh up front, the Dolphins surprisingly rank tied for last in opponent yards per rush attempt during the regular season. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking too: Le’Veon Bell is going to have a big day.
Let’s not right off the Dolphins too quickly, though. Miami is tied for 7th (with Pittsburgh) in yards per play on the season. Moreover, even though the Dolphins were blown out last weekend by New England, Matt Moore has had the offense performing better than when Ryan Tannehill was at quarterback: Miami is averaging 6.3 yards per play with Moore in their last three games (t-4th in the NFL). Don’t forget that the Steelers will also have to find an answer for Jay Ajayi too, as he ran for the first of his three 200-yard games against Pittsburgh the first time around.
Miami certainly possess a few of the key ingredients to pull a Wild Card round upset. Their defense, however, will ultimately let them down. The aforementioned Bell will set the tone for Pittsburgh early while Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers’ offense will be too difficult to contain for four quarters.
Pittsburgh 29, Miami 21
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#5 New York Giants vs #4 Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -5.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: NYG (6) > GB (7)
Public Betting: NYG 51%
Wild Card weekend’s game of the week pits the red-hot Packers against the Giants, who are no strangers to pulling upsets at Lambeau (i.e. 2007 NFC Championship & 2011 NFC Divisional). There are many different characters this time around, though. For starters, Odell Beckham presents a matchup nightmare for a suspect Green Bay secondary that finished 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt. Eli Manning, who I feel obliged to mention is 8-3 in the postseason, certainly has struggled at times this year, but you have to think that if Matt Barkley (over 350 passing yards) and Sam Bradford (386 yards, 3 touchdowns) could carve up the Packers’ pass defense in recent weeks, couldn’t Eli?
On the other side of the ball, how do the Giants plan to slow down Aaron Rodgers? Well, it’s actually not too hard to imagine. New York finished the season 2nd in defensive DVOA–4th against the pass, 3rd against the run. Rodgers has been flawless for the past two months, but haven’t we seen Green Bay’s offense sputter before when a capable defense neutralizes their good-but-not-necessarily-great receiving corps?
You’re probably thinking that I’m about to pick the Giants. I’m not. I LOVE the G-Men to cover. But since I expect this to be a close game, I’ll take the better head coach/quarterback combination. No need to do any advanced algebra here: McCarthy & Rodgers > McAdoo & Manning. And no, I don’t think Eli will magically transform into an elite quarterback again after a subpar regular season.
Green Bay 24, New York 21
And lastly, here are my best bets for Wild Card weekend…
- Teaser: Houston vs Oakland UNDER 43.5 & SEATTLE (-1) over Detroit
- SEATTLE (-400) over Detroit
- MIAMI (+10.5) over Pittsburgh
- Miami vs Pittsburgh OVER 45.5
- NEW YORK (+5.5) over Green Bay
