Week 16 Edition
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records Entering Week 13
Straight Up: 136-86-2 (.611)
Last Week: 10-6
Spread: 124-91-9 (.573)
Last Week: 8-8
Over/Under: 115-109 (.514)
Last Week: 5-11
Locks: 27-6 (.818)
Last Week: 2-0
Best Bets: 108-82-1 (.568)
Last Week: 4-4
*Note- Thursday Night prediction for Giants/Eagles was Philadelphia 20-17; no best bets were placed for this game
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Washington Redskins (7-6-1) vs Chicago Bears (3-11)
Spread: WSH -3 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: WSH (10) > CHI (16)
Public Betting: WSH 68%
The Bears are a 3-11 team disguised as a .500 club: They’re rank a respectable 16th in Weighted DVOA and have a net yards per play differential of +0.6. Washington may have more to play for, but the Bears have been in this situation many times over the past five weeks and have covered the spread each time. And in four of those games, they played competitively against teams that all are likely to finish over .500 (the Giants, Titans, Lions, and Packers).
Surprisingly, Matt Barkley has actually been an upgrade at quarterback over Jay Cutler, too. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s the third-highest graded quarterback in the league since he became the starter after Cutler got injured a month ago. I like him to get his first signature win as Chicago’s starter over a suddenly sinking Redskins squad.
Chicago 24, Washington 20
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Miami Dolphins (9-5) vs Buffalo Bills (7-7)
Spread: BUF -4.5 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: MIA (19) < BUF (13)
Public Betting: MIA 55%
Expect big games for both Jay Ajayi and LeSean McCoy because neither the Dolphins nor the Bills are good at stopping the run. However, without question, I think the Buffalo’s rushing attack is more capable of taking advantage. The Bills the NFL in rushing by a mile while it appears Ajayi’s midseason explosion was mostly a fluke–the Dolphins are averaging a putrid 2.9 yards per carry over the past three weeks. It looks like it might have to be up to interim quarterback Matt Moore to get Miami one step closer to the playoffs. I think that may be too difficult of a challenge in chilly upstate New York.
Buffalo 23, Miami 20
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Atlanta Falcons (9-5) vs Carolina Panthers (6-8)
Spread: ATL -3 Over/Under: 51.5
’16 DVOA: ATL (4) > CAR (23)
Public Betting: ATL 66%
At this time last year, Atlanta and Carolina met with the Panthers two wins away from finishing 16-0. Much has changed since Atlanta’s upset over the previously unbeaten Panthers, particularly on the defensive end for Carolina. But the Panthers have improved at defending the pass in recent weeks, and they should benefit from not having to face a fully-healthy Julio Jones. Nonetheless, I’ll still take Matt Ryan and a more-motivated Atlanta team to squeak past Cam Newton and the Panthers.
Atlanta 22, Carolina 20
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Minnesota Vikings (7-7) vs Green Bay Packers (8-6)
Spread: GB -6.5 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: MIN (25) < GB (7)
Public Betting: GB 79%
These teams are heading in completely opposite directions, as the Packers have turned things around behind magnificent play from Aaron Rodgers while Minnesota’s once dominant defense is now starting to let them down. I expect the Vikings to play better than they did last week–after all, things can’t get any worse, right? But with Minnesota struggling to stop the run in recent weeks, I expect Ty Montgomery to lead the streaking Packers to another victory.
Green Bay 24, Minnesota 17
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New York Jets (4-10) vs New England Patriots (12-2)
Spread: NE -16.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: NYJ (31) < NE (2)
Public Betting: NE 75%
After struggling against the Broncos last week, there are few opponents better for the Patriots offense to face than the Jets. New York appears to have mailed it in, as evidenced by the fact that they are allowing a league worst 6.4 yards per play over the past three weeks. I mean, Matt Moore, of all quarterbacks, threw four touchdowns against their secondary last Saturday night. I understand that the Jets have been very competitive against the Patriots in their last few meetings, but their defense has never been as bad as it is now. And with New England’s defense starting to hit its stride, the final score won’t be within three touchdowns.
*New England 34, New York 13
*Denotes LOCK
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Tennessee Titans (8-6) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
Spread: TEN -5 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: TEN (6) > JAC (27)
Public Betting: TEN 84%
Can the Titans make noise in the playoffs? I know, first they have to win the AFC South. But look at their resume: They own wins over Detroit, Green Bay, Denver, and now Kansas City. Not many other teams in the league have a body of work like that. Yet, as I said, they have to get a ticket to the dance first. For that reason, I don’t see the well-rounded Titans having too much trouble against a Jacksonville team that just fired its head coach.
Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 17
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San Diego Chargers (5-9) vs Cleveland Browns (0-14)
Spread: SD -4.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: SD (20) > CLE (32)
Public Betting: SD 75%
I’ve said it before in recent weeks and I’ll say it again: Just bet against the Browns. Don’t even think twice about it.
*San Diego 31, Cleveland 14
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Indianapolis Colts (7-7) vs Oakland Raiders (11-3)
Spread: OAK -3.5 Over/Under: 53.5
’16 DVOA: IND (21) < OAK (8)
Public Betting: OAK 55%
It’s easier to buy into the Colts after their blowout win over the Vikings last week. But that’s just one game, right? After all, the Raiders have been the far superior team this season. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend. Oakland and Indianapolis may have completely different records, but they each have +0.0 net yards per play differentials, which is quite average. Moreover, the Colts have one of the league’s best yards per play differentials over the past three weeks (+1.1). Oakland, on the other hand, has a differential of -0.5 and has not looked great offensively since Derek Carr injured his finger against Carolina in Week 12. Andrew Luck will have to be aware of where Khalil Mack lines up before every down, but I think he’ll be able to do enough to exploit an otherwise weak Oakland defense. Don’t write off Indianapolis just yet.
Indianapolis 31, Oakland 24
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) vs New Orleans Saints (6-8)
Spread: NO -3.5 Over/Under: 51.5
’16 DVOA: TB (15) > NO (17)
Public Betting: TB 65%
Who knows with either of these two teams? New Orleans’ offense was completely shut down by Tampa Bay when these two divisional foes met a couple of weeks ago. Plus, the ‘Bucs pass defense has improved dramatically over the past two months. But I’m not completely sold on Tampa because they still rank in the bottom ten in both offense and defense, as measured by yards per play. I’ll put my faith in Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense, particularly after they nearly dropped 50 points on Arizona.
New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 24
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San Francisco 49ers (1-13) vs Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
Spread: LA -4.5 Over/Under: 40.5
’16 DVOA: SF (28) > LA (30)
Public Betting: LA 50%
Here are three reasons why I’m taking the 49ers. First, the Rams offense has been terrible since Jared Goff took over: They’re averaging a league worst 3.8 yards per play since that change. That makes it less likely that the 49ers’ poor defense gets thrashed once again. Second, the 49ers are divisional underdogs–teams in those situations this year have covered the spread at close to a 60% rate. And lastly, San Francisco is also an underdog with the spread despite having the higher DVOA. I like San Francisco to move to 2-0 against the Rams this season…and stay at 0-13 against everyone else.
San Francisco 27, Los Angeles 20
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Arizona Cardinals (5-8-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (9-4-1)
Spread: SEA -8.5 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: ARZ (24) < SEA (12)
Public Betting: SEA 58%
I’m sure many of us remember the last matchup between these two teams, in which Arizona and Seattle played to one of the most bizarre draws you’ll ever see. The Cardinals may not necessarily be super-motivated to play this game, yet I still think their defense, which held Seattle to only 257 yards in five full quarters back in October, will do enough to keep them in the game. I’d go so far as to pick them to pull off the outright upset, but I don’t trust Carson Palmer anymore.
Seattle 20, Arizona 17
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Cincinnati Bengals (5-8-1) vs Houston Texans (8-6)
Spread: HOU -1.5 Over/Under: 41.5
’16 DVOA: CIN (22) > HOU (29)
Public Betting: CIN 51%
Houston’s offense came alive after Tom Savage took over against Jacksonville last week, and I think the Texans will ride that momentum into their game against Cincinnati. All Savage has to do is not make many mistakes and he will be an immediate upgrade over Brock Osweiler, Houston’s $72 million dollar man. After all, Osweiler has thrown the second-most interceptions in the NFL this season. With Vontaze Burfict out injured for Cincinnati, I bet Savage will get off on the right foot in his first start and lead Houston to another victory.
Houston 20, Cincinnati 13
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Baltimore Ravens (8-6) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
Spread: PIT -5.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: BAL (5) < PIT (1)
Public Betting: BAL 51%
The Ravens defense had an uncharacteristically shaky performance against the Eagles last week, allowing over 160 yards rushing. Nonetheless, Baltimore is 6th and 1st respectively against the pass and run this season, which leads me to believe they can slow down Pittsburgh’s offense like they did when they beat the Steelers 21-14 back in early November. Plus, with Pittsburgh projected to be without two of their offensive weapons, tight end Ladarius Green and receiver Sammie Coates, there will be a lot of pressure on Le’Veon Bell and company to pick up the slack.
However, one underrated element in this game is the Steelers’ defense, which has been just as good as Baltimore’s of late. They’re allowing only 4.6 yards per play over the past month (3rd in the NFL) and have shot all the way up to 9th in total defense according to Football Outsiders. This should be a defensive struggle reminiscent of those battles featuring the likes of Ray Lewis and Troy Polamalu. But I’ll take the Steelers, at home, to grind out a victory to clinch the AFC North.
Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 16
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Denver Broncos (8-6) vs Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
Spread: KC -3.5 Over/Under: 37.5
’16 DVOA: DEN (18) < KC (9)
Public Betting: KC 67%
Like they have in many of their wins this season, the Chiefs stole a victory in Denver a few weeks back even though they were out-gained by nearly 200 yards. Teams like the Buccaneers and Titans may have knocked Kansas City down a notch with recent upsets over the Chiefs at Arrowhead, but I feel like they’re in for one more home loss before the regular season is over. With the Broncos currently out of the playoff picture, it’s obviously Denver’s final stand. With their backs against the wall, I trust their defense, which still leads the NFL in opponent yards per play and is first in defensive DVOA, to keep Kansas City’s offense in check. I also like Trevor Siemian to pick up where he left off in that terrific Sunday Night performance against the Chiefs, especially if Justin Houston can’t play due to a sore knee. Let’s not count out the defending champs until the dust has settled.
Denver 24, Kansas City 19
And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Sixteen…
- CHICAGO (+3) over Washington
- CAROLINA (+3) over Atlanta
- Atlanta vs Carolina UNDER 51.5
- GREEN BAY (-300) over Minnesota
- SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Cleveland
- INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5) over Oakland
- NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
- SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5) over Los Angeles
- ARIZONA (+8.5) over Seattle
- Teaser: Arizona vs Seattle UNDER 50.5 & NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) over Tampa Bay
- HOUSTON (-1.5) over Cincinnati
- BALTIMORE (+5.5) over Pittsburgh
- Baltimore vs Pittsburgh UNDER 44.5
Happy holidays, and stay tuned for the Sunday Recap to be published on Monday morning, featuring a prediction for Monday night’s matchup between the Lions and Cowboys.
