Welcome to the latest edition of the Sunday Recap, a weekly column dedicated to thoughts on the previous day’s NFL action. Here are the big winners from yesterday’s games.
Detroit delivers statement victory over New Orleans
The Detroit Lions picked a great time to pull off their most impressive win of the season. As 6.5 point underdogs, the Lions went into New Orleans and completely shut down the Saints’ prolific offense in a relatively easy 28-13 victory. Detroit, who many didn’t foresee making the playoffs before the season after the sudden retirement of Calvin Johnson, now sits at 8-4 with four to play; and that should be enough of a cushion to hold off the surging Green Bay Packers.
Tony Dungy said it perfectly during Football Night in America: It wasn’t too surprising that the Lions won. It was how they won. Detroit entered Week 13 ranked near the bottom in many of the most important defensive categories. For instance, Football Outsiders had them rated as the league’s 2nd-worst defense, in spite of the fact that they have played the easiest slate of offenses up until their showdown with the Saints. Nonetheless, they limited New Orleans to just thirteen points and held Drew Brees without a touchdown pass for the first time all season. Let’s keep in mind that the Saints’ offense has been significantly better at home this year too, as they’ve averaged close to thirty-five points per game at the Superdome in their six home games.
Matthew Stafford continued his MVP-caliber campaign as well. The former number one pick was extremely efficient once again, finishing with an over 70% completion percentage to go along with two touchdown passes and an 85.0 Total QBR. He also did this without much of a running game. Zach Zenner, of all people, was their leading rusher with 40 yards. Before I move on, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Golden Tate, who had another prolific performance with 145 receiving yards, including a 66-yarder that put the Lions up by two touchdowns in the second half.
A loss to the Saints would’ve dramatically effected Detroit’s playoff hopes. They would’ve been just one game in front of Minnesota and, most notably, Green Bay; and since the Packers defeated the Lions when the two teams met earlier in the season, a win-or-go-home tilt in Week 17 against Aaron Rodgers and company would have essentially been guaranteed. That’s certainly not a position Detroit wants to be in, home field advantage aside.
But now the Lions hold a two-game lead in the NFC North, making the odds of a winner-take-all matchup against Rodgers less likely. In a year full of surprises, Detroit’s ascent continues to be one of the most remarkable.
Kansas City escapes with another narrow win, and proves they’re a Super Bowl contender
Since Andy Reid took over in 2013, the Chiefs have always been a good team. Now it’s finally time to start calling them a Super Bowl contender after they went into Atlanta and pulled off a victory, albeit another miraculous one.
For the second consecutive week, Kansas City used defense and special teams to their advantage. A 37-yard interception return by standout safety Eric Berry gave the Chiefs their first lead of the game with under a minute remaining in the first half. In the third quarter, Kansas City looked like they were about to punt the ball back to the Falcons; that is until backup wide receiver Albert Wilson took a direct snap and bolted through Atlanta’s unsuspecting defense for a sudden 55-yard touchdown that increased the Chiefs’ lead to two scores.
Of course, the big play of the game, though, occurred after Atlanta managed to fight back and take the lead after a Matt Ryan touchdown pass with just over four minutes to play. Attempting a two-point try to go up 30-27, the normally clutch “Matty Ice” neglected to locate the aforementioned Berry, who jumped in front of Ryan’s pass and took it the house in another dramatic turn of events.
Kansas City now owns road victories over Oakland, Denver, and Atlanta. That, along with their stoutness in all three phases of the game, should convince anyone that doesn’t think the Chiefs are a serious contender that they are mistaken. However, I do think it’s necessary to put Kansas City’s success into perspective. They’ve been incredibly good in one-possession games this year (6-2). I mean, think about how the Chiefs managed to pull off their last three victories. Down by two-touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Carolina, the Chiefs needed an incredible pick-six from Berry (does this guy make enough plays?) and a well-timed fumble by Carolina with less than a minute to play to complete a ridiculous comeback. Against Denver, the Chiefs needed another return touchdown from their special teams, a couple of clutch plays in very unfavorable circumstances to tie the game at the end of regulation, and a questionable coaching decision by Gary Kubiak to beat the Broncos. And, of course, we all know what happened yesterday.
The point is this: Kansas City is definitely for real. Their 9-3 record isn’t a fluke because they are terrific in all three facets of the game and they dominate the turnover margin. However, their ability to make game-altering plays at such opportune moments isn’t sustainable. That could cause their success in close games to even out in the long-run. The question will be whether they can ride out this good fortune until season’s end.
Dark horse alert: Baltimore is dangerous
If Baltimore’s offense can continue to play like it did on Sunday, is there any team in the AFC that wants to see this team in the playoffs? The normally anemic Ravens offense finally exploded in their 38-6 rout of Miami, and it was truly a complete performance.
Joe Flacco was tremendous, posting season highs in passing yards (381), touchdown passes (4), and Total QBR (94.3). While Flacco’s outburst may have come as a surprise, Baltimore’s terrific defensive showing shouldn’t be. Their defense actually has a case to be the league’s best, as they rank number one against the run and are first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric despite having played the league’s eighth toughest slate of offenses. It shouldn’t come as a shock that they forced three Ryan Tannehill interceptions and held Jay Ajayi to just 61 rushing yards.
Clearly the Ravens are capable of making noise in the playoffs. They’ve been one of the league’s best teams since an uninspired loss to the Jets dropped them to 3-4. It all starts with their defense: In their last five games, Baltimore has allowed each of their opponents, with the exception of the Cowboys, to under 20 points. That includes the prolific Steelers, who the Ravens held to only 14 points when the two rivals met in early November. Moreover, perhaps this breakout game from Flacco is a sign of things to come. We know that “January” Joe makes his living in…well, January. Flacco’s quarterback rating, yards per attempt, and touchdown percentage figures are all higher in the playoffs. Oh, and he’s 10-5 in those games too, with many of those wins coming on the road.
With such an outstanding defense and a proven winner at quarterback, Baltimore is eminently capable of advancing a round or two in the playoffs. The only problem is that they might have trouble getting there. Pittsburgh is right on their heels at 7-5, making their Week 16 meeting at Heinz Field a de facto playoff game. Set aside time on your calendar for that one, if you haven’t already.
A word on the G.O.A.T.
Is it even a debate anymore? You know what I’m talking about. Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all-time. Did he really need to become the all-time wins leader to prove that to you?
Nonetheless, it is impressive that Brady was “officially” able to add most winningest quarterback ever to his already impressive resume. Think about it. Four Super Bowl titles. Three Super Bowl MVP’s. Most Super Bowl appearances for a quarterback. Most conference championship appearances for a quarterback. Eleven Pro Bowl appearances, and soon to be twelve. Two MVP’s. Only quarterback to lead a team to a 16-0 season. Best win-percentage (.538) when tied or trailing the fourth quarter. Now we can say he’s won the most career games in addition to winning the most postseason games in history as well? It seems the gap between Brady and everybody else who has ever played the position seems to be getting wider and wider by the week.
Monday Night Prediction
vs
Indianapolis Colts (5-6) vs New York Jets (3-8)
Spread: IND -1.5 Over/Under: 49.5
’16 DVOA: IND (28) > NYJ (30)
Public Betting: IND 64%
Key Stat: The Jets’s defense has allowed the second-fewest yards per play over the past three weeks
While the Jets have played musical-quarterbacks in recent weeks, their defense has made serious strides. They’ve launched up the leaderboard in many key categories such as opponent yards per play and DVOA. Their secondary is certainly still a weakness; and that could be their downfall against a Colts team fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. But how about Indy’s secondary? They’ve been even worse against the pass this year. Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick starts, I expect him to torch the Colts’ defense and lead the Jets to a minor upset victory.
New York 27, Indianapolis 20
