Welcome to the latest edition of the Sunday Recap, a weekly column dedicated to thoughts on the previous day’s NFL action. Here are the top storylines from yesterday’s games.
Who’s the third best team in the NFC? And can they challenge Dallas and Seattle?
One of the biggest developments over the past few weeks has been Dallas and Seattle’s separation from the rest of the NFC. The Cowboys, as we know, are in the midst of a nine-game winning streak while the Seahawks have opened up a three-game lead in the NFC West over the last month. Given the way both sides are playing, it seems inevitable that they will be the conference’s top two seeds come January. It’s also hard to imagine that Dallas/Seattle won’t be the NFC Championship matchup.
But the NFL season doesn’t always go according to plan. Granted, I think the Cowboys and Seahawks will meet with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. I’m just saying that we’d be naive to think that injuries, performance fluctuations, etc. couldn’t alter the NFC’s hierarchy.
So who’s the third best team? At 7-3, the Giants own the conference’s third-best record; but despite winning their last five games, I actually haven’t been very impressed by their play this season, as all seven of their wins have come by one-touchdown or less. I suppose you could also make a case for other contending teams like Washington, who owns the NFC’s second wild card spot, Minnesota, whose defense might be the conference’s best, and Philadelphia, who many advanced metrics say is one of the league’s better teams in spite of their 5-5 record.
But all of those teams are looking up to the Falcons, who are the only other team that could conceivably represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Atlanta, who was on their bye this past week, boasts a terrific offense that has had success against some of the league’s best defenses. Yes, they did struggle the last time they took the field against a very good Eagles defense; but they averaged 6.0 yards per play in a win at Denver earlier in the season and put up 24 points at Seattle in a game they arguably should’ve won if a seemingly blatantly pass interference call on Richard Sherman had been called.
Atlanta’s also very balanced: They’re ranked 2nd in passing and 7th in rushing according to DVOA. And it’s not like they’ve had a favorable schedule. Through eleven weeks, they’ve played the 4th toughest slate of defenses. Dallas’ offense, in contrast, has only faced the 20th most difficult schedule.
The Falcons have concerns defensively that I think will ultimately cause them to fall short of the NFC Championship game. However, that doesn’t mean Atlanta can’t disrupt everyone’s dream matchup of a Dallas/Seattle conference title tilt. Matt Ryan and company are a great bet to put up points no matter what defense they’re up against; and as we’ve seen before with quarterbacks like Joe Flacco in 2012 and Aaron Rodgers in 2010, sometimes a hot quarterback is all you need.
Put a fork in them: Arizona and Green Bay are all done
Despite being on the short-list of Super Bowl favorites entering the season, the Cardinals’ playoff chances weren’t looking great entering Sunday. Now they’re squashed after another lackluster performance in Minnesota. Arizona fell victim to not one, but two 100+ yard scoring plays in their 30-24 loss, the first being an 100-yard pick six by Xavier Rhodes on a poorly thrown pass from Carson Palmer into double-coverage. The second was an 104-yard kick return by speedster Cordarrelle Patterson to start the second-half that all but sealed Arizona’s fate.
Who’s to blame for the Cardinals’ disappointing season? It starts with their offensive line and trickles up to Palmer. Their line, which many pundits noted could be a fatal flaw before the year, has struggled mightily in pass-protection, ranking only 24th entering Week 11. A weak pass-blocking unit is more problematic for Arizona than it is for other teams. Bruce Arians’ system is predicated on a deep, vertical passing game, and not having an ample amount of time to throw makes executing those plays all but impossible.
Their line has, however, been very good at paving the way for running back David Johnson to have a breakout campaign. But that’s what makes Arizona’s regression offensively all the more surprising. The Cardinals haven’t had a back like Johnson in the Bruce Arians era, and yet their offense has been worse. Remember, this team ranked near the top in practically every major offensive category in 2015, including yards per play and DVOA. They ranked 18th and 26th in those same categories entering the week.
And that’s why Arizona’s struggles are ultimately because of Palmer. He hasn’t been nearly as good as he was in 2015 when he led the NFL in QBR, as it appears his struggles in January during the Cardinals’ playoff run have spilled over to this fall. He also just turned in his worst performance of the year against the Vikings (5.2 yards per attempt, 24.8 Total QBR), which will undoubtedly lower his already below-average statistics even more. While the Cardinals’ defense has held up their end of the bargain, Palmer’s carelessness with the football–he has eight interceptions and seven fumbles through ten games–and his inability to consistently convert the big plays that ignited their offense last season have ultimately doomed Arizona.
I’d be remiss, however, if I didn’t mention Chandler Catanzaro. His two misses at the end of both the New England and Seattle games are the difference between 6-4 and 4-5-1. Winning either of those games could have changed the trajectory of Arizona’s season dramatically. Instead, they’ll go down as one of the NFL’s bigger underachievers in recent memory.
Meanwhile, the Packers fell to the Redskins on Sunday Night to drop to 4-6. This comes as a shock to me not because I thought Green Bay would win on Sunday Night (I picked Washington), but because I thought Green Bay was a lock to win the NFC North before the season. Yet after a fourth consecutive loss, their playoff hopes are shot.
Credit to Washington. I know I just wrote about why I think the Falcons are the third best team in the NFC, but I’d put the Redskins right behind them. Many people have slept on their offense this season, but I hope that after their performance in primetime, people will start to acknowledge that the Redskins are one of the league’s ten best teams.
With that said, allowing over 40 points for the second consecutive game confirmed how bad this Packers defense is. It mystifies me why they’ve had such a drop-off, too. Green Bay started the year as one of the league’s elite run defenses, yet I suppose that only incentivized teams to attack a poor secondary that allowed multiple huge plays to Redskins receivers. Of course, their run defense isn’t nearly as stout either, as Robert Kelley went for over 130 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Whether it’s a lack of execution, a lack of effort, or a lack of talent, Green Bay’s defense is in shambles.
Even though they put up a respectable 24 points, the Packers’ offense continued to struggle at times as well. I mean, it took them until their fourth possession to pick up a first down! And if wasn’t for a few Houdini-like plays from Aaron Rodgers, the final outcome could have been even worse.
I suspected that Green Bay was done before their game last night on our latest Check Down radio broadcast. Yet in the back of my mind I acknowledged that maybe I was a bit premature in writing the Packers off. After all, this is a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers! But now the halo effect surrounding Rodgers and the Packers should be gone. They’re on track to be 4-7 with another difficult road matchup next Monday Night in Philadelphia. Battles against Seattle, Minnesota, and Detroit await as well. At this point, the discussion should not be whether the Packers can make the playoffs, but whether they can salvage a .500 season.
A quick awards update
Here’s my ballot–if the season ended today–for a few of the NFL’s marquee awards.
MVP: Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys
Again, this is if the season ended today. After another four touchdown performance, I still believe Tom Brady’s statistics by season’s end will be too hard for voters to overlook. But until then, Prescott’s the quarterback for the best team in football and he’s having an excellent year statistically. We also have to keep in mind how poor Dallas was last season. Without a competent quarterback, the Cowboys were a miserable 4-12. With Prescott, Dallas has had one of the league’s most efficient offenses; and as evidenced by Prescott’s terrific 17/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Cowboys are one of the NFL’s least turnover-prone as well. Granted, Ezekiel Elliott certainly has played a role in their turnaround, but Dallas’s worst-to-first turnaround is something to keep in mind when assessing Prescott’s MVP case.
2 Tom Brady, QB New England; 3 Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta
Offensive Player of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott, RB Dallas Cowboys
Since the MVP award almost always goes to a quarterback, I think it’s only fair that the offensive player of the year award goes to a non-quarterback. That’s why I’d vote for Elliott, who looks poised to easily have the league’s most rushing yards. In my view, he’s easily been the most impactful playmaker on a weekly basis as well, even more so than stellar receivers like Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. Assuming either Elliott or Prescott claims offensive rookie of the year, I currently project the Cowboys to dominate the NFL’s award ceremony.
2 Julio Jones, WR Atlanta; 3 DeMarco Murray, RB Tennessee
Defensive Player of the Year: Landon Collins, S New York Giants
There’s no defensive player that’s stood out this year more than Collins. Even as Von Miller and Aaron Donald have dominant seasons, Collins has been the one defender that’s combined excellent statistics with clutch performances the most. For instance, he now is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with five; and many of them, including his pick this past weekend, have sealed victories for the Giants. He also leads all defensive backs in tackles (74) and has notched three sacks. Though I suspect that voters will ultimately vote for a more prominent player like Miller, Collins would be my pick if the season ended today.
2 Von Miller, LB Denver; 3 Aaron Donald, DT Los Angeles
The Elite Eight
Real simple: I’m going to rank the eight best teams in the NFL based on how strong I feel their Super Bowl chances are.
8/ Kansas City Chiefs
Even after their surprising loss to the Buccaneers, I still like what the Chiefs have done to this point. Every team gets upset at some point during the year.
7/ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers didn’t look great in their win over Cleveland; but with Baltimore’s loss, they’re now tied atop the AFC North. Like I’ve said before, they’ll be a dangerous team come playoff time.
6/ Atlanta Falcons
They have the distinction of being the third best team in the NFC. That ensures their spot in the Elite Eight.
5/ Denver Broncos
If Trevor Siemian can get healthy, I expect the Broncos to be just as formidable as they were last year when it matters.
4/ Oakland Raiders (pending MNF)
As their defense improves after a rough start to the season, Oakland’s Super Bowl aspirations don’t seem so out of reach.
3/ New England Patriots
Their offense is the NFL’s best, but until their defense starts forcing turnovers, I put them slightly behind Dallas and Seattle.
2/ Dallas Cowboys
There are still some concerns with their defense. That puts them a notch behind a more well-rounded Seahawks team.
1/ Seattle Seahawks
It seems like Russell Wilson is back at full-strength: He’s averaging 9.76 yards per pass over Seattle’s last three games compared to 7.56 in their first seven.
Monday Night Prediction
vs
Houston Texans (6-3) vs Oakland Raiders (7-2)
Spread: OAK -5.5 Over/Under: 45.5
’16 DVOA: HOU (30) < OAK (8)
Public Betting: OAK 76%
Key Stat: The Raiders are last in opponent yards per play overall (6.4), but are 11th over their last three games (5.3)
The Raiders’ defense has improved in recent weeks after a horrible start to the season; and in fairness to Oakland, they went up against some of the league’s best offenses like New Orleans and Atlanta early in the year. In short, their defensive struggles were overblown. They’ll face a pedestrian Houston offense in this matchup, so I think Derek Carr and company will put up enough points to move to 8-2.
Oakland 24, Houston 17
