Week 11 Edition
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records to Date
Straight Up: 83-62-2 (.571)
Last Week: 8-6
Spread: 81-59-7 (.575)
Last Week: 9-5
Over/Under: 80-67 (.544)
Last Week: 10-4
Locks: 19-5 (.792)
Last Week: 1-0
Best Bets: 75-56 (.573)
Last Week: 8-3
*Note- Thursday Night prediction for Saints vs Panthers was Carolina 23, New Orleans 21; one best bet was placed: Carolina vs New Orleans UNDER 53
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Tennessee Titans (5-5) vs Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Spread: IND -3 O/U: 53.5
’16 DVOA: TEN (19) > IND (26)
Public Betting: TEN 59%
Key Stat: Tennessee’s offensive line ranks 4th in run-blocking and 6th in pass protection
Indianapolis can’t defend (31st in opponent yards per play), and unfortunately for them, they’re about to play one of the hottest and most well-balanced offenses in the NFL. Over their last three games, the Titans are averaging an absurd 7.1 yards per play, which is first in the league by a mile. With a great group of lineman up front, Tennessee can pound DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry down your throat; or, as we saw last week against Green Bay, Marcus Mariota can light it up through the air. Considering that divisional underdogs have covered at a 65% clip against the spread this season (28-14-4 entering Week 11) and the fact that Tennessee is the better team according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, I love the Titans to beat the Colts for the first time in ten meetings.
Tennessee 31, Indianapolis 24
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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) vs Detroit Lions (5-4)
Spread: DET -6.5 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: JAC (28) < DET (27)
Public Betting: DET 68%
Key Stat: Jacksonville has turned the ball over 12 times in their last five games
Not only does Detroit have a bad defense, but they tend to play in competitive contests: Each of their nine games this season have been within one-score in the fourth quarter. These two factors give value with the spread to the struggling Jaguars. Jacksonville, however, must find a way to protect the football better. Considering that the Lions are one of the worst-turnover inducing teams in the league, I bet Jacksonville’s offense finally shows up this weekend and makes things interesting. With that said, I still trust Matthew Stafford in a close game a lot more than Blake Bortles.
Detroit 23, Jacksonville 20
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) vs Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Spread: KC -7.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: TB (23) < KC (12)
Public Betting: KC 56%
Key Stat: Kansas City leads the NFL in turnover margin per game (+1.6)
Speaking of turnovers, the Chiefs have protected the ball better than any team in the league thus far. That’s a recipe for success in football, where turnovers oftentimes decide the outcome of a game. For instance, take Tampa Bay’s performance against Chicago last week. They forced three turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown, to blowout the Bears 36-10. Unfortunately for Tampa, they’re likely to have that kind of success tomorrow. Jameis Winston has the fifth highest interception rate in the NFL, and he’s going up against a defense that has forced the most takeaways in the league. Granted, Pro-Bowl cornerback Marcus Peters is questiontable; but assuming he plays, along with the return of dominant pass-rusher Justin Houston, the Chiefs defense should feast on the Bucs.
Kansas City 27, Tampa Bay 17
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Chicago Bears (2-7) vs New York Giants (6-3)
Spread: NYG -7.5 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: CHI (24) < NYG (16)
Public Betting: NYG 62%
Key Stat: The Giants are 9th in the NFL against the pass
Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey (PED suspension) and starting guard Kyle Long (ankle injury) will both miss this game. Combine that with the fact that the Bears were annihilated in a turnover-plagued loss to the Buccaneers last week and you’d think this game would be all Giants, right? Wrong. The Bears actually have a higher net-yard per play differential, which can be found by simply subtracting a team’s opponent yards per play from their offensive yards per play figure. In short, this means that the Giants are overvalued in this game, partly due to what I mentioned above. I still think the Giants will win this game because a) I don’t see how the Bears are going to contain Odell Beckham and b) New York’s improved defense should ultimately contain Chicago. But this game will be closer than many experts predict.
New York 24, Chicago 21
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Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) vs Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Spread: MIN -2 Over/Under: 40.5
’16 DVOA: ARZ (21) < MIN (14)
Public Betting: ARZ 67%
Key Stat: Arizona has turned the ball over 1.8 times per game
This is the toughest game to call of the weekend. Both Arizona and Minnesota have great defenses that rank 1st and 4th respectively in yards per play allowed, so I think this will be a low-scoring game. I suppose the offensive line that doesn’t play as horribly will win. The Cardinals and Vikings have two of the worst pass-blocking units in football, and Minnesota just lost another offensive tackle, Jake Long, to a season-ending injury. I’m tempted to side with the Cardinals because they have more playmakers offensively than Minnesota; but the Vikings have played very well at home this season and Arizona has struggled mightily outside of the pacific-time zone (0-2 with six turnovers). I’ll flip a coin and go with the Vikings.
Minnesota 17, Arizona 16
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Buffalo Bills (4-5) vs Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1)
Spread: CIN -2.5 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: BUF (9) > CIN (15)
Public Betting: BUF 55%
Key Stat: Buffalo leads the NFL in adjusted sack rate
Another tough game to call, mainly because this game is in Cincinnati, and the Bengals desperately need a win to stay in the playoff picture. The Bills, however, also need this game badly. For that reason, I’m going to toss aside the emotional aspects of this game and pick Buffalo. The Bills, who are coming off their bye week, opened as 4.5 point underdogs, but are now at +2.5. That’s a sign that both public and sharp bettors like Rex Ryan’s side, at least with the spread. They’re also the higher ranked team according to DVOA and protect the football as well as any team in the league. I like Buffalo to get back to .500.
Buffalo 24, Cincinnati 20
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Baltimore Ravens (5-4) vs Dallas Cowboys (8-1)
Spread: DAL -7.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: BAL (17) < DAL (3)
Public Betting: DAL 63%
Key Stat: Baltimore is first in the NFL at stopping the run (3.3 yards per rush attempt allowed)
Surprisingly, the Dallas rushing attack looks to be in for a challenge against a Ravens defense that’s stout against the run. Since, Baltimore is also 6th against the pass according to DVOA, could this mean that the 8-1 Cowboys are on upset alert? Not quite. Dallas ran over a Green Bay defense that prided itself on its elite run-stopping unit a month ago. Plus, Baltimore’s offense is ranked near the bottom in many important metrics like yards per play and points per game. I don’t think the Ravens will do enough to slow down the Cowboys.
*Dallas 28, Baltimore 20
*Denotes LOCK
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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5) vs Cleveland Browns (0-10)
Spread: PIT -8 Over/Under: 45.5
’16 DVOA: PIT (11) < CLE (32)
Public Betting: PIT 86%
Key Stat: The Browns are 31st against the pass and 29th against the run according to DVOA
The Browns actually do present some value with the spread in this game. Not only are they divisional underdogs, but the Steelers’ defense has been very shaky lately. With that said, I don’t think Cleveland has much of a chance against a Pittsburgh team looking to remain in playoff contention. The Steelers will roll behind Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.
*Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 20
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Miami Dolphins (5-4) vs Los Angeles Rams (4-5)
Spread: MIA -2.5 Over/Under: 39.5
’16 DVOA: MIA (6) > LA (25)
Public Betting: MIA 74%
Key Stat: The Dolphins rank 4th against the pass, according to DVOA
Number one pick Jared Goff will make his first start for the Rams. Unfortunately for Goff, however, his first assignment is a tricky one. The Dolphins are a better team than a lot of people give them credit for, although I think now that they have won four games in a row, people are starting to take note of Miami’s success. Given how long it took for Jeff Fischer to turn the reigns over to Goff, I doubt he’ll be that much of an upgrade over Case Keenum. For that reason, I like the Dolphins’ win-streak to continue.
Miami 24, Los Angeles 17
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New England Patriots (7-2) vs San Francisco 49ers (1-8)
Spread: NE -12.5 Over/Under: 51.5
’16 DVOA: NE (4) > SF (29)
Public Betting: NE 86%
Key Stat: San Francisco has allowed 504 yards per game in their last four contests
Partly due to a few key injuries, the 49ers defense has collapsed over the past month. Though they played well in a 23-20 loss to Arizona last week, San Francisco has allowed a league-worst 6.7 yards per play over their last three games. That figure won’t cut it against the Patriots. As we know, Tom Brady’s been sensational since his return; but LeGarrette Blount also deserves recognition for the Pro-Bowl-caliber season he’s having. Even without Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan, the Patriots offense should score with relative ease. Plus, I’m expecting a bounce-back game from New England’s defense, which got exposed last week against Seattle.
*New England 31, San Francisco 17
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Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) vs Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)
Spread: SEA -6.5 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: PHI (1) > SEA (2)
Public Betting: SEA 72%
Key Stat: Seattle’s offensive line ranks 28th in pass-blocking efficiency
Both sides are coming off extremely impressive wins; and what stood out in each of their matchups was the way both defenses held two of the NFL’s best offenses–Atlanta and New England–in check. For that reason, I like a low-scoring affair in Seattle. Looking to the offensive side of the ball, I don’t think the Seahawks will be as successful against a Philadelphia defense ranked first in defensive DVOA as they were against an average Patriots defense. The Eagles should dominate the line of scrimmage with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham going up against a weak Seattle offensive line. That alone will be enough to keep Philly in the game. So can Carson Wentz pull off the victory? Hey, upsets happen.
Philadelphia 20, Seattle 17
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Green Bay Packers (4-5) vs Washington Redskins (5-3-1)
Spread: WSH -2.5 Over/Under: 49.5
’16 DVOA: GB (18) < WSH (7)
Public Betting: GB 60%
Key Stat: The Packers are 30th against the pass, allowing 7.7 yards per attempt
For some reason, I seem to like the Redskins to win every week. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, or maybe I’m one of the few who realizes that this Washington offense is quietly having a very productive season. Moreover, the Redskins own a +0.8 net yard per play differential over the struggling Packers, suggesting that the implied spread for this game should be closer to five points. Of course, this game is in Washington, which isn’t to say that FedEx Field provides the Redskins with a terrific home-field advantage. But it is one more reason why I like the Redskins to win this game.
Washington 26, Green Bay 21
And lastly, here are my best bets for Week 11…
- TENNESSEE (+3) over Indianapolis
- JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) over Detroit
- KANSAS CITY (-300) over Tampa Bay
- CHICAGO (+7.5) over New York
- Chicago vs New York OVER 42.5
- ARIZONA (+2) over Minnesota
- Arizona vs Minnesota UNDER 40.5
- Pittsburgh vs Cleveland OVER 45.5
- Parlay: PITTSBURGH (-340) over Cleveland & NEW ENGLAND (-650) over San Francisco
- PHILADELPHIA (+6.5) over Seattle
- Philadelphia vs Seattle UNDER 43.5
- WASHINGTON (-145) over Green Bay
