Week 12 Edition
Last Week: 5-4 (.556)
Last Four: 24-14 (.632)
Total: 56-44-1 (.559)
TCU (-4.5) over #11 Oklahoma State
Despite being ranked in the top fifteen, the Horned Frogs are actually favored in this game. Yet the public still likes the Cowboys, as nearly 75% of bettors have hammered the +4.5. I’ve mentioned it before in previous articles, but public underdogs who are favored have provided tremendous value this season. That’s why I like TCU at home this Saturday to take down the higher-ranked Cowboys.
#2 Ohio State (+21.5) over Michigan State
A 49-0 win over an awful Rutgers squad doesn’t mean anything. The Spartans have been terrible this year, and they’re in for another blowout.
#23 Florida (+14) over #16 LSU
The over/under in this game is 39.5. That gives value to the Gators because the odds of a blowout are small given the low projected point total. Plus, this is a conference game–those tend to be competitive.
Indiana (+24.5) over #3 Michigan
Net yards per play, which is the difference between a teams yards per play and opponent yards per play, is useful when evaluating a spread. A gap of 0.15 yards per play is commonly understood to be worth a point to the spread in the football betting market; and if we look at the difference in Michigan’s net yards per play (+2.4) and Indiana’s (+0.8) and divide that by 0.15, we find that the implied spread for this game should be close to 11 if this game was played on a neutral field. Even though this game is in the Big House, that’s a big discrepancy. Combine that with the fact that Michigan’s quarterback–Wilton Speight–is out and I love the Hoosiers +24.5.
#22 Washington State (+4.5) over #10 Colorado
Washington State has a much better offense than Colorado, who’s only averaging a putrid 4.3 yards per play over their last three games. I love the Cougars to pull off the upset.
#24 Stanford (-10.5) over California
Cal’s defense is allowing 8.5 yards per play over their last three games. Christian McCaffrey may go for 300 all-purpose yards.
Wake Forest (+22.5) over #4 Clemson
Using the same net yards per play methodology I discussed in the Indiana/Michigan breakdown, the spread in this game should be closer to 16–the net yards per play gap between these two teams is 2.5, which, divided by .15, gives us a spread of 16.67 on a neutral field. I’ll take the points considering Wake Forest’s offense loves to milk the clock.
#13 USC (-13.5) over UCLA
The Trojans are one of the hottest teams in the country–they’re averaging 7.1 yards per play in their last three games and only allowing 4.7. They’ll beat their cross-town rival convincingly.
Game of the Week
#14 West Virginia (+3.5) over #9 Oklahoma
The Mountaineers rank higher than Oklahoma according to Football Outsiders’ total efficiency metric…and they’re getting points at home. I expect West Virginia’s home crowd to be electric, as they’ll take this crucial Big 12 battle.
