Week 9 Edition
I’ve been feeling good about my spread bets in recent weeks, so I’m taking things things up a notch. 11 picks this week!
*Note- All odds courtesy of Vegas Insider
**Note- Home team in Italics
Last Week: 6-2 (.750)
Last Four: 20-13-1 (.603)
Total: 39-32-1 (.549)
#24 Penn State (-12.5) over Purdue
After their enormous upset of Ohio State last weekend, the Nittany Lions are back in the top 25 for the first time in ages. And yet, the 3-4 Boilmakers are the team being backed by over 70% of the betting public. If you read last week’s Spread Bet Saturday, you’d know that there’s value on public underdogs who are favored with the spread. That’s why I’ll take Penn State, who is ranked 20th in Football Outsiders’ Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), to win in convincing fashion.
#10 West Virginia (-3) over Oklahoma State
The Mountaineers are usually known for their offense. But it’s been their defense, ranked 12th defensive efficiency, that’s propelled them to an undefeated start. Given the low point spread, I bet West Virginia does just enough to beat a weaker Oklahoma State squad in a difficult environment.
Michigan State (+24.5) over #2 Michigan
The numbers say Michigan might be the best team in the nation: They’re the only team in the country to rank in the top five in offense, defense, and special teams efficiency. Michigan State, meanwhile, comes into this game losers of five straight and rank 70th in ESPN’s Football Power Index. So why do I like them to cover? A few reasons. First, it’s usually never a bad call to take a home underdog, particularly one that’s receiving this many points. Moreover, this is a rivarly game, and underdogs in these situations tend to present some value.
The main reason, however, that I like Michigan State +24.5 is that in order to bet against the spread successfully, you have to take some unfavorable positions. It’s very similar to picking a stock. You don’t buy a stock when it’s at its highest value and you don’t sell it at its low, right? Taking Michigan in this game would be the equivalent of buying a stock a day after its price tripled. Sure, it could go up a little more. But the odds, and history, say that the underdog that no one believes in–Michigan State–is the right decision.
Notre Dame (+2) over Miami (FL)
Michigan State isn’t the only 2-5 team I like with the spread tomorrow. The Fighting Irish may be way below .500, but each of their losses have come by less than eight points. Morever, I’m not sold on Miami. Their stats look good on paper, but their high rankings in both yards per play for and against are deceptive because they piled up some early-season wins against inferior opponents. Against more worthy teams in recent weeks, the Hurricanes have struggled. For those reasons, I like Brian Kelly’s squad to stop the bleeding–at least for one week.
#8 Baylor (-3.5) over Texas
Baylor’s been great of late, averaging a robust 7.0 yards per play in their last three games. Texas? Not so much. They’ve lost four out of five and have allowed over 40 points on four occasions this season. Seth Russell and the Bears remain undefeated.
Northwestern (+28) over #6 Ohio State
Why are people this confident in the Buckeyes? Ohio State’s offense hasn’t played well in weeks. Plus, Northwestern is much better than people think. They’re 22nd in FEI and two of their losses have come to undefeated teams in Western Michigan and Nebraska. Covering a four touchdown spread is simply too much to ask of the struggling Buckeyes.
#7 Nebraska (+9) over #11 Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s offense is horrible. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook has more interceptions than touchdowns and their offense has averaged only 5.2 yards per play this season, which is 82nd in the nation. They don’t deserve to be favored by nine points against many teams in the Big Ten, let alone the undefeated Cornhuskers. I like Nebraska to get the outright win.
#14 Florida (-7.5) over Georgia
Florida’s defense, which ranks 6th in the country in defensive efficiency, is one of the nation’s best. They’ll stifle a mediocre Georgia offense enough to cover the 7.5 point spread.
#17 Utah (+10.5) over #4 Washington
Despite that fact that the Huskies are only one of two teams in the country to rank in the top ten in offense, defense, and special teams efficiency (Michigan is the other), I’ll take the home underdog. Washington’s most impressive wins have come against an unbelievably overrated Stanford team and a very weak Oregon squad. They’re in for more of a battle against the 7-1 Utes.
#15 Auburn (-4.5) over Ole Miss
I’m officially hoping off the Ole Miss bandwagon. The Rebels can’t play defense, which is bad news for them considering Auburn’s offense is on fire. The Tigers piled up 632 total yards against Arkansas last weekend en route to their fourth straight win and I don’t see them slowing down any time soon.
Game of the Week
#12 Florida State (+4.5) over #3 Clemson
Clemson’s survived more than a few close calls this season by the skin of their teeth. They won’t get out of Tallahassee unscathed. Florida State presents tremendous value in this game for multiple reasons. They’re a home underdog; they’re only being backed by 33% of the betting public, which means the House is on FSU’s side; and, most importantly, they’ve very comparable to Clemson: The Seminoles rank 10th in FPI while the Tigers rank 5th. Dalvin Cook will have a big enough game to make a case for a Heisman nomination as Clemson finally falls.
