Another intriguing Sunday awaits. The late games, in particular, should be epic. The potent Falcons face off against the stingy Seahawks and Dak Prescott and the resurgent Cowboys march into Lambeau Field to take on Green Bay. Both of those games have serious playoff implications. Many other games on the slate could as well. Let’s get to the picks.
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – You may notice that on the link to Football Outsiders’ DVOA page, I will consult another statistic called DAVE. Simply put, DAVE is DVOA, only with preseason projections factored in.
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Bovada
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records to Date
Straight Up: 44-33 (LW: 9-5)
Spread: 44-30-3 (LW: 7-7)
Over/Under: 36-41 (LW: 6-8)
Locks: 12-4 (LW: 5-0)
Best Bets: 34-29 (LW: 9-9)
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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) vs New England Patriots (4-1)
Spread: NE -7.5 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: CIN (19) < NE (10)
Public Betting: NE 77%
Key Stat: Tom Brady has a 28/4 TD to INT ratio when both Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are healthy since 2015
As impressive as New England’s 4-1 start has been, the Patriots have flaws. Most notably, their defense has been inconsistent even though they’ve faced the league’s 2nd-easiest slate of offenses. That could be a problem against A.J. Green and the Bengals’ solid passing offense. The reason why Cincinnati won’t win this game, though, is because I don’t see how they are going to slow down Brady and the Pats offense. After losing key players like Reggie Nelson in the offseason, the Bengals defense has regressed so far in 2016: They’ve dropped down to 19th in defensive DVOA through five games after ranking 10th last season. Cincinnati simply won’t be able to account for the plethora of weapons at Brady’s disposal.
*New England 34, Cincinnati 20
*Denotes LOCK
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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) vs Miami Dolphins (1-4)
Spread: PIT -7 Over/Under: 48
’16 DVOA: PIT (3) > MIA (27)
Public Betting: PIT 76%
Key Stat: Miami has only scored on 23% of their drives, which is worst in the NFL
This could easily be a trap game for the Steelers, who have laid more than a few eggs in recent years. They’re banged up, they have a big contest against New England next week, and they’re playing a Miami team desperate to get back on track. However, I’d still be very hesitant to pick the Dolphins to pull off the upset because Pittsburgh projects to have a field day against Miami’s suspect defense.
*Pittsburgh 30, Miami 21
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Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -7 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: CLE (32) < TEN (19)
Public Betting: 59%
Key Stat: Both teams are averaging 5.0 yards per rush attempt, good for second in the league
Let’s talk the spread first. Underdogs with solid rushing attacks tend to cover the spread at higher-than-average rates in games with low over/under totals. That’s exactly the scenario we have here. Isiah Crowell and the Browns have had one of the NFL’s better rushing attacks through five weeks, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground and ease the burden on QB Cody Kesler, who is coming off a shoulder injury sustained last week against New England.
Last week shouldn’t influence your prediction for this game, either. The Titans played better than they usually do against a Miami team ripe to be beaten soundly while Cleveland was beaten by a far superior New England team. With that said, Tennessee is better than Cleveland, and I like them to win on Sunday given that the Browns have a few key players banged up.
Tennessee 24, Cleveland 20
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Los Angeles Rams (3-2) vs Detroit Lions (2-3)
Spread: DET -3.5 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: LA (24) < DET (22)
Public Betting: DET 55%
Key Stat: The Lions are allowing the second most points per drive
I like to go against the grain in situations like this when an underdog is coming off a loss while the home favorite is coming off a surprising win. Detroit’s offense has been great this season, but I think not having Theo Riddick in this matchup will hurt. Plus, Los Angeles frustrated the Lions’ offense last season in a blowout win, so there is reason to think their stout defense can have similar success on Sunday. It’s about time Todd Gurley got going, too. What better time to start proving he’s a top back in the league than against a weak Lions defense?
Los Angeles 24, Detroit 23
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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) vs Chicago Bears (1-4)
Spread: CHI -1.5 Over/Under: 46
’16 DVOA: JAC (25) < CHI (23)
Public Betting: JAC 57%
Key Stat: The Bears rank 2nd in yards per play, but the Jags are 7th in opponent yards per play
Look…I don’t think anyone who doesn’t support the Jaguars or Bears will pay attention to this contest. But you know what? It’s actually an interesting game! Brian Hoyer has been above-average in place of an injured Jay Cutler, which explains why the Bears are managing to average over six yards per play. As for Jacksonville, their offense found its rhythm against Indianapolis two weeks ago and their defense is seventh against the pass through five weeks.
Honestly, I have no idea what will happen here. When in doubt, I usually take the team with the better QB & coach combination. But are Hoyer & Fox better than Bortles & Bradley. Again, no idea.
Chicago 21, Jacksonville 20
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San Francisco 49ers (1-4) vs Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Spread: BUF -9 Over/Under: 44
’16 DVOA: SF (28) < BUF (8)
Public Betting: BUF 53%
Key Stat: In their last three games, Buffalo’s turnover margin is +8
The Bills have turned their season around in large part because they’ve dominated the turnover battle. Some of this is skill: Buffalo has a very aggressive defense and their offense relies heavily on their run game. But some of this, like their success at recovering fumbles of late, is luck. For this reason, I think the Bills are overvalued in this matchup against a mediocre, yet not necessarily incompetent 49ers team. I still like Buffalo to win because they’re stronger in a variety of metrics such as DVOA and yards per play.
Buffalo 23, San Francisco 17
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Carolina Panthers (1-4) vs New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Spread: CAR -2.5 Over/Under: 53.5
’16 DVOA: CAR (20) < NO (21)
Public Betting: NO 60%
Key Stat: Carolina is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (27th in the league)
Tough game to call. On one hand, I think that Carolina is not as bad as their 1-4 record indicates. They’ve lost to some of the league’s best teams and they were without Cam Newton last Monday night. However, they’ve had serious trouble stopping the pass this season. That poses a problem against Drew Brees and the Saints, who have scored 30+ points in three of their four games. New Orleans is also coming off a bye, while the Panthers had a short week and still have a few key players like Jonathan Stewart and Kelvin Benjamin listed as questionable. I’ll side with the underdog in a divisional matchup.
New Orleans 27, Carolina 23
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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) vs New York Giants (2-3)
Spread: NYG -3.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: BAL (15) > NYG (18)
Public Betting: NYG 55%
Key Stat: The Ravens are 1st against the run, but 12th against the pass in defensive DVOA
I can’t guarantee that Odell Beckham will have his first breakout game of the year, but one of the Giants’ receivers will. The Ravens are stout against the run, so the way to attack them is through the air. Baltimore is average at defending #1 receivers, but only 30th at defending all other wideouts. Expect coach Ben McAdoo to spread the Baltimore defense out and let Eli Manning pick the Ravens apart.
New York 27, Baltimore 20
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Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) vs Washington Redskins (3-2)
Spread: PHI -3 Over/Under: 45
’16 DVOA: PHI (4) > WSH (16)
Public Betting: PHI 70%
Key Stat: Washington is 32nd in defending the run and 23rd in defensive DVOA
This Philadelphia team–no, not the one that the Redskins swept last year en route to winning the NFC East–poses problems for Washington. For starters, Philadelphia still ranks in the top ten in both offense and defense according to Football Outsiders even after their loss last week to Detroit. Plus, Washington’s defense is shaky. Their very bad at stopping the run and they’re pass defense isn’t much to fear, outside of Josh Norman. Based on what I’ve seen from Carson Wentz thus far, I doubt he has trouble moving the Eagles down the field. And did you know that Kirk Cousins has yet to beat a team that has finished over .500? Philadelphia’s on track to go at least 9-7, so I like them to take another step toward that mark with a win in Washington.
Philadelphia 28, Washington 21
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Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) vs Oakland Raiders (4-1)
Spread: KC -1.5 Over/Under: 46.5
’16 DVOA: KC (12) > OAK (13)
Public Betting: KC 53%
Key Stat: The Chiefs and Raiders have only seven and five sacks, which is 30th and 31st respectively
Boy, no respect for the 4-1 Raiders! I guess it make sense in some respects because Oakland has a piss-poor defense and has barely won each of their four games. I still like them as home underdogs in this contest because Derek Carr is good enough to consistently come through in clutch situations. And even though I expect there to be many points, I don’t think Kansas City’s offense is potent enough to hang.
Oakland 28, Kansas City 24
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Atlanta Falcons (4-1) vs Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Spread: SEA -6.5 Over/Under: 44.5
’16 DVOA: ATL (7) < SEA (1)
Public Betting: ATL 61%
Key Stat: Atlanta leads the NFL in points per drive while Seattle is first in defensive drive success rate
Atlanta benefitted from facing Paxton Lynch in Denver last week, but they still had to move the ball against that vaunted defense. They did so with relative ease, which leads me to believe they’ll have success against a talented Seahawks D. I’ll take the more well-rounded team at home, though. Seattle’s defense continues to shine, as they’re first in opponent yards per game, and their offense, which has struggled at times with a hampered Russell Wilson, should benefit from last week’s bye.
Seattle 27, Atlanta 24
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Dallas Cowboys (4-1) vs Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Spread: GB -4.5 Over/Under: 47
’16 DVOA: DAL (9) < GB (5)
Public Betting: GB 54%
Key Stat: Dallas is 1st in Rushing DVOA; Green Bay is 1st in opponent yards per rush attampt
I noted earlier in this article about the success of underdogs with good rushing attacks. Well, the Cowboys sort of fit that description, don’t they? The problem for Dallas is that Green Bay is tremendous against the run, allowing an absurdly low 2.0 yards per attempt. This is easily the most intriguing battle of the day, which means it’s tough to decisively side with either unit. I’ll give it a shot, though. I think Dak Prescott’s running ability adds another dimension to Dallas’s offense, so I like them to generate enough of a ground game to control the possession battle. From there, they’ll point up enough points to upset Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Lambeau.
Dallas 34, Green Bay 30
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Indianapolis Colts (2-3) vs Houston Texans (3-2)
Spread: HOU -3 Over/Under: 48
’16 DVOA: IND (26) > HOU (31)
Public Betting: HOU 51%
Key Stat: Houston is 3rd in Defensive Drive Success Rate (DSR), but 30th in OSR
Don’t be fooled by Houston’s record: They’re an average team at best. Despite having one of the better defenses in the NFL, their offense has been so poor that their DVOA through five weeks is 31st in the league. It sure helps that the Texans are playing a soft Colts defense this week, but I’m still not sure that Brock Osweiler can be trusted. Indianapolis doesn’t inspire much confidence besides their formidable quarterback, but I’ll hesitantly take them to manage the Texans defensive line sans J.J. Watt .
Indianapolis 20, Houston 17
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New York Jets (1-4) vs Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
Spread: ARZ -7.5 Over/Under: 46.5
’16 DVOA: NYJ (30) < ARZ (11)
Public Betting: ARZ 57%
Key Stat: The Cardinals are only 24th in yards per drive after ranking first in this category in 2015
Arizona had the league’s best offense in 2015. For the first time in 2016, we’ll see that same Cardinals offense in this matchup because they’re going up against a poor Jets pass defense. I doubt New York can keep pace, particularly without Eric Decker and, potentially, Nick Mangold.
*Arizona 33, New York 17
And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Six…
- NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Cincinnati
- Teaser: New England vs Cincinnati OVER 40.5 & Pittsburgh vs Miami OVER 41
- PITTSBURGH (-330) over Miami
- CLEVELAND (+7) over Tennessee
- Teaser: SAN FRANCISCO (+15.5) over Buffalo & Carolina vs New Orleans UNDER 60
- NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) over Carolina
- NEW YORK (-175) over Baltimore
- Baltimore vs New York OVER 44.5
- Kansas City vs Oakland OVER 46.5
- Atlanta vs Seattle OVER 44.5
- ATLANTA (+6.5) over Seattle
- DALLAS (+4.5) over Green Bay
- Indianapolis vs Houston UNDER 48
- ARIZONA (-340) over New York
