Welcome to the latest edition of the Sunday Recap, a weekly column dedicated to thoughts on the previous day’s NFL action. Here are the top storylines from yesterday’s games.
Unlike Last Year, Atlanta’s Fast Start is Legitimate
Five weeks into the 2015 season, the Atlanta Falcons looked like a contender in the NFC. They were 5-0, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were putting up big numbers, Devonta Freeman was leading the NFL in touchdowns, and new coach Dan Quinn looked like he had revamped their once porous defense.
It turned out to be a mirage. The Falcons may have won six of their first seven games, but four of those victories came by only by a touchdown and three of them came against backup quarterbacks. Therefore, it wasn’t surprising that Atlanta regressed in the second half of the year, although I’m sure no one anticipated them dropping six consecutive games.
This year’s 3-1 start is a different story. Atlanta’s offense came into Week 4 ranked number one in a variety of metrics: They ranked first in yards per play and first in both yards and points per drive. My one knock against them, though, was the fact that they hadn’t played even an average defense. I mean, is there a team that doesn’t move the ball against New Orleans?
However, this argument debunking Atlanta’s offensive success to start the season is no longer valid after they nearly put up 50 points on the Panthers. Sure, after losing Josh Norman, Carolina doesn’t have quite the defense they had a year ago. But they still came into yesterday’s game ranked fifth in yards per play. No matter. The Falcons averaged a staggering 8.8 yards per play and they literally could do whatever they want in the passing game. Even for someone as talented as Julio Jones, 300 receiving yards is insane! Jones’ dominance certainly made things easier for Matt Ryan, who turned in another top-notch performance. After finishing with a 97.0 Total QBR, Ryan should be the league leader in that important category once the numbers are crunched. Suffice it to say, Matty Ice looks like he’s back.
Let’s give credit to Atlanta’s defense, too. After getting thrashed by Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in Week One, they’ve turned in some quality performances over the last three weeks against some of the league’s better offenses. They held firm against Derek Carr and the Raiders by making a late stop to preserve their first victory of the season and then made Cam Newton look far from his MVP-self from 2015. Their cumulative statistics might not look great, but Dan Quinn’s defense has held up its end of the bargain.
Even though they are not undefeated like they were last year, Atlanta’s first quarter performance in 2016 trumps last year’s by a mile. The numbers don’t lie, and it’s not like they’ve beaten up on bad teams. On the contrary: They own an impressive road victory over Oakland, a convincing win over a divisional foe in New Orleans, and an absolute shellacking of the defending NFC champions. Unfortunately for Atlanta, their schedule does take a turn for the worse over the next few weeks. They play three of the NFL’s elite teams in Denver, Seattle, and Green Bay, so it’s likely that the Falcons could just be .500 after eight weeks despite their terrific start. However, as long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are healthy, Atlanta has proven that they are one of the most dangerous teams in the NFC because their offense is truly outstanding and their defense is no longer shaky enough to hold them back. Plus, if Carolina continues to stumble, the Falcons may not only have wild card aspirations. The NFC South could be their’s to lose.
Which Non-Playoff Team from Last Year Has Been the Most Impressive?
Obviously I’ve been impressed with the Falcons, who admittedly I was not high on before the season began. With that said, Atlanta hasn’t been the only surprising team this year. In fact, there have been many teams who missed out on the postseason that have upset the status quo in the NFL over the last four weeks. Here is my ranking of the most impressive teams who missed the playoffs last year:
1) Philadelphia Eagles
As I write this, Pittsburgh is destroying Kansas City. So Fronte brought up a good point: What does this say about Philadelphia? After all, the Eagles throughly defeated the Steelers 34-3 in arguably the biggest statement win of the year. Philadelphia, who had their bye this week, is the only team in the NFL currently ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. With all due respect to the Falcons, they’re the most surprising team so far.
2) Atlanta Falcons
I think I’ve said everything I’ve needed to say already.
3) Oakland Raiders
The line between a 3-1 and a 1-3 start for Oakland may be thin, but I give them credit for coming through in clutch situations when they’ve had to. Plus, as many anticipated before the season, Derek Carr has continued to progress. I think it’s safe to say he’s a top fifteen starter in the NFL. If Oakland’s defense can improve as the season moves along, the Raiders will make the playoffs.
4) Los Angeles Rams
Am I biased against the Rams just because it’s hard to get excited about Case Keenum? I think everyone is! After a brutal loss to the 49ers in Week One, the Rams have rebounded with great wins over two of the NFC’s preseason darlings, the Seahawks and Cardinals. Plus, their defense has been tremendous. With the success of teams like Denver and Minnesota, could Los Angeles be the dark horse in the NFC that no one is talking about?
5) Dallas Cowboys
The only knock I have on the Cowboys is that they haven’t beaten an elite team yet. Nonetheless, I’ve been very impressed by Dak Prescott. With a dominant offensive line, the Cowboys will be tough to beat if they continue to be this efficient offensively.
No Cause for Concern in New England
I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about New England’s miserable performance against the Bills. It was just one of those days, you know? The offense was anemic and committed what seemed like twenty penalties. Of course, it’s never a good sign when you fail to put up any points, either. As for the defense, I’ll give them credit for tightening up in the red zone and holding Buffalo to 16 points. However, they too looked shaky at times. The Bills certainly deserve credit for crafting a sound game plan predicated around getting the ball to LeSean McCoy in space and giving Tyrod Taylor manageable throws in order to keep the clock moving and decrease their chances of turning the ball over. Nonetheless, the Patriots missed plenty of tackles and didn’t come close to forcing a turnover. Their bend-but-don’t-break defense certainly didn’t break, but it did a little more bending than I would’ve liked to see.
Their special teams was surprisingly poor, too. The Patriots shot themselves in the foot on their first two kickoff returns when Cyrus Jones mistakenly returned two kicks that he should’ve settled for a touchback. That cost them roughly thirty yards of field position by my estimation and put the offense in less advantageous positions early in the game. Plus, the normally reliable Stephen Gostkowski missed his second make-able kick in three weeks.
All of this being said, New England’s ugly loss to Buffalo is nothing to be concerned about. Let’s keep things in perspective. The Pats were playing with an injured third-string rookie quarterback. What offense in the NFL wouldn’t struggle in that predicament? Moreover, any rational New England fan would’ve signed for a 3-1 start in Tom Brady’s absence. Heck, I thought we were going to be 2-2 at this point before the season began, and that was assuming we wouldn’t have to actually anticipate having Julian Edelman play quarterback. Their loss this weekend to a division foe does not diminish how impressive a shorthanded New England team looked in the first three weeks in all phases of the game. Brady will be back next week, which means the offense will be firing on all cylinders in due time. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, that means things will be back to normal in Foxboro in due time.
Fantasy Heroes & Zeroes
Hero: Julio Jones (36 points)
Not a bad day at the office for Mr. Jones.
Zero: Matthew Stafford (7 points)
I anticipated a big day from Stafford against Chicago…and he laid an egg.
Hero: Blake Bortles (25 points)
After a slow start to the season, Bortles was one of my sleeper picks at quarterback this week. He came through.
Zero: Latavius Murray (1 point)
This is all the more painful to write because I just traded Le’Veon Bell on one of my fantasy teams and Murray was one of the integral players I received in return.
Hero: Matt Jones (19 points)
Matt Jones was an interesting flex play this week since he was playing against the Browns weak run defense. For those who were bold enough to give him the nod, he came through with over 117 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Zero: Deandre Hopkins (0 points)
Did Hopkins even play this week? I would’ve thought that Hopkins would’ve figured somehow into Houston’s relative offensive explosion against Tennessee.
Predictions Recap
Best Call: Jacksonville 30, Indianapolis 27
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
Worst Call(s): Backing Detroit and Kansas City on the road
I whiffed on a few picks this weekend. I feel like I deserve a pass though with my Patriots prediction because I wrote that article on Friday afternoon and I was assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo would start. But I don’t get a pass for picking the Lions and Chiefs to pull off road victories.
Records This Week
Straight Up: 6-8 Spread: 6-8 Over/Under: 8-6 Locks: 1-1 Best Bets: 3-8
Monday Night Prediction
vs 
New York Giants (2-1) vs Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Spread: MIN -4.5 Over/Under: 43
’16 DVOA: NYG (19) < MIN (9)
Public Betting: MIN 60%
New York is coming off an agonizing loss to the Redskins at home. Normally, I usually like backing teams coming off a loss, particularly when they are playing a team on a winning streak like the Vikings. For that reason, I’ll take the Giants with the spread. However, I don’t see New York moving the ball consistently against Minnesota’s defense, even with their weapons on the outside. Even though I’m skeptical that Sam Bradford can continue his turnover-free streak, I trust the Vikings to do just enough to remain undefeated.
Minnesota 20, New York 17
You’re right! Patriots’ 3-1 record is better than what we thought it would be. Looking forward to Brady’s return!