This is a continuation of Part 1 of my Week 2 NFL predictions which I released last week. I wasn’t confident, but I did pick the Jets to defeat Buffalo on Thursday night, although I was wrong about the spread and the over/under total. I also gave my predictions for three of the 1:00 games tomorrow as well–Baltimore vs Cleveland, San Francisco vs Carolina, and Kansas City vs Houston. I decided to post those predictions in this article so as to have all my predictions for Sunday’s games in one place. But enough talk: Let’s get going!
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – You may notice that on the link to Football Outsiders’ DVOA page, I will consult another statistic called DAVE. Simply put, DAVE is DVOA, only with preseason projections factored in.
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Bovada
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records to Date
STRAIGHT UP: 10-7 (LW: 9-7)
SPREAD: 11-5-1 (LW: 11-4-1)
OVER/UNDER: 6-11 (LW: 6-10)
LOCKS: 1-0 (LW: 1-0)
BEST BETS: 9-3 (LW: 9-3)
vs 
Spread: BAL -7 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: BAL (7) > CLE (32)
Public Betting: BAL 66%
The Ravens should be aggravated that Robert Griffin III got injured last week. Now Baltimore will have to face Josh McCown, who lit them up last year in a 33-30 win in October to the tune of 457 yards. Even though McCown was only 1-6 as a starter last year (excluding his Week One start in which he got injured very early in the game), the Browns were more competitive with him under center. Four of Cleveland’s six losses in McCown’s starts were by less than a touchdown where as their point differential in all games without McCown was -106.
Even though I expect Baltimore to win simply because Cleveland has many deficiencies, this could be another example of a point spread that is overinflated based on overreactions from Week One. After all, the Browns will be at home with a better quarterback under center against a familiar opponent. They’ll make things interesting.
Baltimore 24, Cleveland 20
vs 
Spread: CAR -14 Over/Under: 45.5
’16 DVOA: SF (25) < CAR (8)
Public Betting: SF 60%
As effective as Blaine Gabbert was on Monday night, the 49ers offense still only mustered 4.2 yards per play, albeit against a very good Rams defense. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they’ll be playing against another stout defense this Sunday when they take on Luke Kuechly and company. For that reason, I don’t expect the 49ers to put up many points, particularly since this game is in Carolina. You may have noticed, but the Panthers have played noticeably better at home (10-0 with a +169 point differential in their last ten) than they have on the road (7-3 with a +49 point differential) over the past year. They may not perform well enough to cover the high spread, but I have Cam Newton and the Panthers as one of my locks to win this weekend since they are playing against an inferior San Francisco team that has to make a cross-country trip following a Monday night game.
*Carolina 28, San Francisco 13
*Denotes LOCK
vs 
Spread: HOU -2 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: KC (5) > HOU (23)
Public Betting: KC 54%
The Chiefs were sort of bailed out last week. They were down by three scores to San Diego, but then Keenan Allen went down with a torn ACL, the Chargers offense sputtered, and now Kansas City finds themselves at 1-0. The good news for Andy Reid’s squad? That’s all in the past.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s not easy to make a solid case when picking teams to win early season games such as this one because we basically only have a one week sample. So, in this case, I’ll put my faith in how successful Kansas City was last year as my reason for picking them to beat the Texans on Sunday. The Chiefs were one of just three teams in the NFL to rank in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency in 2015. Besides not having Justin Houston and Jamaal Charles to start the season, has anything really changed? Plus, let’s not forget that Kansas City throttled Houston when they met in the playoffs. Brock Osweiler and the Texans new-and-improved offense will certainly make things more difficult for the Chiefs, but I’ll go with the team that has been far superior of late.
Kansas City 21, Houston 17
vs 
Spread: NE -6.5 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: MIA (31) < NE (4)
Public Betting: NE 57%
Is this a trap game for the Patriots, who are coming off an impressive win at Arizona? It could be: The Dolphins defensive line is disruptive and New England is still dealing with some injuries on their offensive line. Plus, the Patriots also project to be without Dont’a Hightower and (possibly) Rob Gronkowski this week as well (do I even need to mention that Tom Brady won’t be playing?). The bad news for Miami, though, is that Ryan Tannehill has struggled mightily in his four previous visits to Foxboro, posting an average Total QBR of 30.5 in four losses. Those four losses, by the way, also came by an average margin of roughly 24 points. I think this Patriots defense is as good as any of the New England units that Tannehill and the Miami offense has faced recently, which is why I like them to take care of business at home, even if the Dolphins manage to hang around longer than expected.
New England 24, Miami 17
vs 
Spread: DET -6 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: TEN (26) < DET (10)
Public Betting: DET 63%
After lighting up the scoreboard in their win over Indianapolis last week, the Lions return home to face another pedestrian defense in Tennessee. Sure, the Titans did shut down Adrian Peterson in Week One; but that was likely attributed to their strategy to load the box and force Shaun Hill to beat them through the air. They won’t be able to do that against Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense, which looks to be dangerous even when we account for the fact that their performance against a mediocre Colts defense was deceptive. Detroit will head to 2-0.
Detroit 31, Tennessee 20
vs 
Spread: PIT -3 Over/Under: 48.5
’16 DVOA: CIN (9) < PIT (2)
Public Betting: PIT 59%
I noted before Cincinnati’s game against the Jets last week that the Bengals would be dealing with a lot of turnover to begin the season: Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is gone, linebacker Vontaze Burfict is suspended until Week 4, and Tyler Eifert, one of Andy Dalton’s favorite targets, remains injured. Even after slipping past New York, these problems will carry over to their matchup at Pittsburgh this weekend, who looked phenomenal in multiple respects last week against Washington. The Steelers will prove to be too much for an undermanned Cincinnati team.
Pittsburgh 29, Cincinnati 21
vs 
Spread: WSH -3 Over/Under: 45.5
’16 DVOA: DAL (13) > WSH (30)
Public Betting: DAL 54%
I was all aboard the Redskins train before their Monday Night meeting with Pittsburgh…and then Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams happened. I’m tempted to take the Cowboys, who Football Outsiders has ranked as the much stronger team. But I’ll stick with Washington because even though they only scored sixteen points against the Steelers, they still averaged a robust 7.0 yards per play. If not for poor red-zone execution, the Redskins could have made it a much closer game. I believe they’ll have better success in these situations against the Cowboys and pull out a close victory.
Washington 28, Dallas 24
vs 
Spread: NYG -4.5 Over/Under: 53.5
’16 DVOA: NO (20) > NYG (22)
Public Betting: NYG 50%
If the last time these teams met is any indication, this game will be a shootout. However, a couple things have changed since the Saints beat the Giants 52-49 last fall. New York is even stronger offensively thanks to the return of Victor Cruz and the addition of rookie Sterling Shepard. Moreover, the Giants looks to have a better defense than the one that finished 31st in opponent yards per play in 2015 after making a few notable signings in the offseason. The Saints, on the other hand? Well, they’re still the same kind of team we’ve seen over the past couple of years: Great offense, horrible defense. That combination alone spells trouble against the improved Giants on Sunday, but the fact that their top cornerback, Delvin Breaux, is out injured and won’t be able to cover Odell Beckham–or any of New York’s good wideouts for that matter–makes things a whole lot worse.
*New York 38, New Orleans 24
vs 
Spread: ARZ -7 Over/Under: 50
’16 DVOA: TB (16) < ARZ (3)
Public Betting: ARZ 63%
After last week’s disappointing showing against New England, I think Arizona is ready to bounce back against the Buccaneers. Defensively, I actually thought the Cardinals weren’t as shaky as people were saying: They just couldn’t get off the field on third-down, surrendering ten of seventeen conversions. By natural regression to the mean (the league average for third-down conversion rates last year was roughly 38%), Arizona should have a better defensive performance. I also expect their offense to come out with a chip on their shoulder and have some success against an improving, but certainly not great Tampa Bay defense.
*Arizona 32, Tampa Bay 21
vs 
Spread: SEA -7.5 Over/Under: 38.5
’16 DVOA: SEA (1) > LA (24)
Public Betting: SEA 72%
One common theme I’ve noticed when reading various predictions for this game is the idea that “Jeff Fischer’s Rams play the Seahawks tough.” This is true. The Rams actually swept Seattle last year and they’ve covered in six of their previous eight contests against them. But let’s me amend that statement: Jeff Fischer’s Rams have played the Seahawks tough. Past tense. Los Angeles was pathetic offensively against the 49ers and now they must play an even better defense. Plus, Russell Wilson’s ankle injury doesn’t look to be a concern. Seattle spoils the Rams’ first game back in LA.
*Seattle 24, Los Angeles 10
vs 
Spread: OAK -5 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: ATL (27) < OAK (18)
Public Betting: OAK 63%
This is a great matchup for Oakland. Not only isn’t the Atlanta offense as potent as it used to be, but the Falcons are one of the NFL’s worst teams at generating pressure (for instance, they didn’t register a sack last week against Tampa Bay) and the Raiders have one of the league’s better offensive lines. Derek Carr should pick apart Atlanta and lead Oakland to a 2-0 start.
*Oakland 28, Atlanta 20
vs 
Spread: SD -3 Over/Under: 47.5
’16 DVOA: JAC (28) < SD (11)
Public Betting: JAC 65%
Interesting game. Jacksonville hasn’t won a game on the west coast in over ten years, but they look to be heading in a positive direction after a very good defensive performance against Green Bay. The Chargers, meanwhile, were dealt a devastating blow with the news that receiver Keenan Allen will miss the rest of the season. Perhaps people are overstating his impact on their offense…or maybe they’re not.
Jacksonville 20, San Diego 17
vs 
Spread: DEN -6 Over/Under: 46
’16 DVOA: IND (17) < DEN (12)
Public Betting: DEN 54%
It will be a battle of strengths at Sports Authority Field: Andrew Luck and the Colts offense looks similar to the 2014 unit that led the NFL in passing yards per game while the Denver defense…is still the Denver defense. Who has the edge? The Broncos. Indy had a great offensive showing last week, but no one will confuse Detroit’s defense with Denver’s. Plus, I expect that the Broncos will not only be able to get their running game going, but expose the Colts’ depleted secondary as well. Denver should take this one relatively easily.
Denver 27, Indianapolis 17
vs 
Spread: GB -3 Over/Under: 43
’16 DVOA: GB (6) > MIN (14)
Public Betting: GB 81%
Before I break down some of the intriguing matchups in this Sunday Night battle, let’s look at the betting angle. The Packers are the huge public favorite, yet the line has not moved in Green Bay’s favor. In contrast, it’s actually vacillated between -3 and -2.5, which suggests that the sharp bettors in Vegas are likely backing the home underdog Vikings.
Having said that, I have enough faith in Green Bay’s offense to pull out a victory in Minnesota’s first game at the beautiful US Bank Stadium. Credit to the Vikings for forcing two defensive touchdowns last week, but can they really expect that on a weekly basis? Also, let’s not sleep on the Packers defense. One stat that really stuck out from last week was Green Bay’s dominance at stopping the run. Granted, it was Jacksonville, but the Jaguars only managed to average 1.8 yards per carry. After Adrian Peterson had trouble finding space against the Titans last week, I expect the Packers to deploy a similar game plan to stop Minnesota’s main offensive threat and grind out a victory.
Green Bay 24, Minnesota 22
And lastly, here are my best bets for Week Two…
- KANSAS CITY (+115) over Houston
- Teaser: CAROLINA (-8) over San Francisco & Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh OVER 42.5
- Dallas vs Washington OVER 45.5
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) over New Orleans
- New Orleans vs New York Giants OVER 53.5
- ARIZONA (-290) over Tampa Bay
- OAKLAND (-5) over Atlanta
- Teaser: SEATTLE (-1.5) over Los Angeles & DENVER (-0.5) over Indianapolis
- Teaser: BALTIMORE (-1) over Cleveland & NEW ENGLAND (-0.5) over Miami
That’s all for my Sunday NFL predictions. Stay tuned for my reaction article to Sunday’s games on Monday morning, in which I’ll also make predictions for this week’s Monday Night game.
