It was an absolutely wild first week of the NFL regular season! We saw a record-amount of one-score games, an unusually high amount of people jumping over each other, some nice end-zone twerking by Antonio Brown, and a few kickers cost their teams victories (thank you Chandler Catanzaro!).
So now it’s on to Week 2, which projects to be another exciting week because there are a few compelling games on tap, including tonight’s matchup between the Jets and Bills. For the record, I’ve decided to break down my predictions column into two parts from now on so as to include my preview for each week’s Thursday night game before it occurs. However, Part 1 will typically be shorter than Part 2 because I’m usually more hesitant in making certain picks for Sunday’s games this early in the week. Oftentimes there are key players who are questionable, so I’d like to know whether or not they will play before I take a side. Other times I just need to do some more thinking, you know? Anyway, as I did for Week 1, I’ll include a section in which I give my best betting picks for the weekend as well. Let’s get started.
*Note – DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: It’s Football Outsiders’ primary efficiency statistic and I believe it to be the best and most predictive measure of assessing the strength of NFL teams
**Note – You may notice that on the link to Football Outsiders’ DVOA page, I will consult another statistic called DAVE. Simply put, DAVE is DVOA, only with preseason projections factored in.
***Note – All betting odds courtesy of Bovada
****Note – Public betting refers to the amount of wagers taken on the spread
Records to Date
STRAIGHT UP: 9-7
SPREAD: 11-4-1
OVER/UNDER: 6-10
LOCKS: 1-0
BEST BETS: 9-3
vs 
Spread: NYJ -1.5 Over/Under: 40.5
’16 DVOA: NYJ (21) < BUF (15)
Public Betting: NYJ 74%
Early season games are always difficult to predict because we simply don’t have enough information to confirm who’s good and who’s not. For instance, are the Bills bad? I’m not really sure. I know they looked shaky on Sunday when they averaged a horrific 3.3 yards per play in a 13-7 loss against the Ravens. But their offense was very respectable last season and maybe Week One was an indication that their defense is poised to improve, too.
The problem for Buffalo, though, is that they’re still dealing with a couple of key suspensions–Marcell Dareus and offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson–and two major injuries as well. Though he claims he will play, Sammy Watkins reportedly is hobbled by a foot injury and Cordy Glenn, one of Buffalo’s best offensive lineman, is officially out. This doesn’t bode well against a Jets front-seven that looked sensational last week, although they too have injury concerns with the likes of Muhammad Wilkerson and David Harris.
I’m tempted to take the Bills because even though everyone is hoping on the Jets bandwagon (they opened as three-point underdogs), maybe everyone is overreacting about Buffalo’s low-scoring output in Week One. They’ll also be a home underdog in a prime-time game, which is one of my favorite betting angles. Nonetheless, I’m hesitantly siding with New York and their stout defense in what should be a sloppy affair.
New York 17, Buffalo 16
vs 
Spread: BAL -7 Over/Under: 42.5
’16 DVOA: BAL (7) > CLE (32)
Public Betting: BAL 66%
The Ravens should be aggravated that Robert Griffin III got injured last week. Now Baltimore will have to face Josh McCown, who lit them up last year in a 33-30 win in October to the tune of 457 yards. Even though McCown was only 1-6 as a starter last year (excluding his Week One start in which he got injured very early in the game), the Browns were more competitive with him under center. Four of Cleveland’s six losses in McCown’s starts were by less than a touchdown where as their point differential in all games without McCown was -106.
Even though I expect Baltimore to win simply because Cleveland has many deficiencies, this could be another example of a point spread that is overinflated based on overreactions from Week One. After all, the Browns will be at home with a better quarterback under center against a familiar opponent. They’ll make things interesting.
Baltimore 24, Cleveland 20
vs 
Spread: CAR -14 Over/Under: 45.5
’16 DVOA: SF (25) < CAR (8)
Public Betting: SF 60%
As effective as Blaine Gabbert was on Monday night, the 49ers offense still only mustered 4.2 yards per play, albeit against a very good Rams defense. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they’ll be playing against another stout defense this Sunday when they take on Luke Kuechly and company. For that reason, I don’t expect the 49ers to put up many points, particularly since this game is in Carolina. You may have noticed, but the Panthers have played noticeably better at home (10-0 with a +169 point differential in their last ten) than they have on the road (7-3 with a +49 point differential) over the past year. They may not perform well enough to cover the high spread, but I have Cam Newton and the Panthers as one of my locks to win this weekend since they are playing against an inferior San Francisco team that has to make a cross-country trip following a Monday night game.
*Carolina 28, San Francisco 13
*Denotes LOCK
vs 
Spread: HOU -2 Over/Under: 43.5
’16 DVOA: KC (5) > HOU (23)
Public Betting: KC 54%
The Chiefs were sort of bailed out last week. They were down by three scores to San Diego, but then Keenan Allen went down with a torn ACL, the Chargers offense sputtered, and now Kansas City finds themselves at 1-0. The good news for Andy Reid’s squad? That’s all in the past.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s not easy to make a solid case when picking teams to win early season games such as this one because we basically only have a one week sample. So, in this case, I’ll put my faith in how successful Kansas City was last year as my reason for picking them to beat the Texans on Sunday. The Chiefs were one of just three teams in the NFL to rank in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency in 2015. Besides not having Justin Houston and Jamaal Charles to start the season, has anything really changed? Plus, let’s not forget that Kansas City throttled Houston when they met in the playoffs. Brock Osweiler and the Texans new-and-improved offense will certainly make things more difficult for the Chiefs, but I’ll go with the team that has been far superior of late.
Kansas City 21, Houston 17
Stay tuned for Part 2 of my Week 2 picks, which will be released Saturday.
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