The time has come for my official predictions for the 2016 NFL season. Team-by-team record projections, awards, playoff picks–everything is on the table! I only got one shot at this…so I’m going to do it right! …and then we go on to the season full regalia!
Division-by-Division Breakdown
AFC East
1 
12-4
The Patriots are sound in all three aspects of the game. That will be more than enough to win the AFC East once again even if they get off to a mediocre start with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.
2 
8-8
Will Buffalo’s defense return to its 2014 self? Maybe. But after a few key injuries this offseason and the news that stud defensive tackle Marcell Dareus has entered rehab, it appears that LeSean McCoy and the Bills’ above-average offense will carry a subpar defense to another .500 campaign.
3 
8-8
A terrific season from Ryan Fitzpatrick got the Jets to 10-6 in 2015. Judging by how he’s performed over the course of his entire career, I doubt he’ll be quite as good this year. That–and a very difficult schedule to start the season–will be their undoing.
4 
5-11
An erratic quarterback and a below-average pass defense (29th in DVOA last year) are not a good combination in today’s NFL. There’s always next year, Dolphins fans.
AFC North
1 
12-4
We know the Steelers have one of the league’s best offenses. But it will be an improved defense–led by linebacker Ryan Shazier–that will allow Pittsburgh to grab the AFC’s number one seed.
2 
10-6
The Bengals are like the Atlanta Hawks: They’ll always be a piece or two away from truly competing, but they’re just too damn stout on both sides of the ball–particularly on the offensive and defensive lines–to miss the playoffs.
3 
9-7
The Ravens will definitely bounce back after a 5-11 season. The question is by how much. My guess is that with improved health from the likes Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, and Terrell Suggs, they’ll perform better in close games and be in the thick of the Wild Card race.
4 
4-12
I’m not as low on Cleveland as others. I think Robert Griffin III is an interesting reclamation project and I’m a believer in a few of Cleveland’s younger, yet inexperienced players. But who am I kidding? They’ll certainly be the worst team in the AFC North.
AFC South
1 
9-7
Houston will definitely have the AFC South’s strongest defense. With playmakers such as DeAndre Hopkins and the newly-acquired Lamar Miller, they might even have have the division’s best offense, too. That will be enough to edge out Indianapolis.
2 
8-8
Just because Andrew Luck projects to be healthy doesn’t mean the Colts will be back in the postseason. Luck still doesn’t have much of an offensive line in front of him, nor does Indy have a respectable defense. 8-8 seems about right.
3 
6-10
Jacksonville is a tough team to pin down. On one hand, I think their defense, which added quality players like Malik Jackson and rookie Jalen Ramsey, will improve enough to put the Jaguars in playoff contention. The other part me still thinks they are a year away. I’ll go with my gut feeling.
4 
5-11
The Titans still need many reinforcements, especially defensively, if they want to compete in the AFC. But that won’t stop Marcus Mariota, DeMarco Murray and Tennessee’s new-look offense from taking another step forward.
AFC West
1 
9-7
The defending champs are certainly not a lock to claim the AFC West title again. New quarterback Trevor Siemian is a question mark and the Broncos can’t continue to count on their defense to bail them out of games at the rate they did last year. With that said, I have just enough confidence in Von Miller and company to take them to win this division.
2 
9-7
After making a few impactful signings this offseason (e.g. G Kelechi Osemel, CB Sean Smith), the Raiders will take another step forward. With Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack leading the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both the offense and the defense ranked in the top ten in efficiency by season’s end.
3 
9-7
Am I confident that the Chiefs will finish in third? Absolutely not–they ranked in the top ten in both offensive and defensive DVOA last year. However, things do change on a yearly basis. The Chiefs don’t have a great offense and their defense is old in a few key places.
4 
7-9
San Diego is another team I like to bounce back in 2016. After rarely having players like Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates on the field at the same time last year, Phillip Rivers should have another one of his outstanding statistical seasons with both of those players back in the fold. The bad news for Chargers fans? Their defense still stinks. Oh, and I suppose the whole threat of relocation as well.
NFC East
1 
9-7
With Tony Romo sidelined again, the door is open for the Redskins to repeat as NFC East champs. Adding a shut-down corner in Josh Norman will improve their secondary and their offense is in good hands with Kirk Cousins, who has plenty of capable options to throw to. The ‘Skins are going to the playoffs again babbbyyyyy!
2 
9-7
With the likes of Odell Beckham, highly touted rookie Sterling Sherpard, and a (hopefully) healthy Victor Cruz, Eli Manning might have the best group of receivers he’s ever had. Plus, their defense, which added several reinforcements during free agency after finishing a lackluster 30th overall in 2015, will at least be somewhat comparable to some of the Giants’ Super Bowl defenses. All this has me buying into Big Blue’s playoff chances.
3 
7-9
Let’s keep the expectations realistic for Dak Prescott. Rookie quarterbacks have had superb preseasons before and have floundered when it really mattered (e.g. Blake Bortles in 2014). With that said, I think he’ll play well enough to keep the Cowboys afloat in the first half of the season, but I’m still not confident that even a potential return from Tony Romo will get Dallas into the postseason.
4 
5-11
It was probably best for the Eagles to cut ties with Sam Bradford. Now they can begin the Carson Wentz era without any controversy. However, unfortunately for Philly fans, I think there will be a steep learning curve for Wentz. With little help around him, I think the Eagles offense will struggle and their good, but certainly not great, defense won’t be enough to prevent another subpar season.
NFC North
1
12-4
If you read our NFC North Roundtable, then you’d know I’m very high on Green Bay this year. An Aaron Rodgers led offense plus the league’s easiest schedule? It’s a no-brainer who wins this division.
2 
8-8
Losing Teddy Bridgewater is obviously a devastating blow to Minnesota, but it won’t necessarily prevent them from making the playoffs. Their defense should be one of stingiest in the NFL and they have the league’s best back in Adrian Peterson. Plus, are we sure Sam Bradford, once he begins to familiarize himself with the offense, will be that much of a drop-off from Bridgewater?
3
7-9
Don’t sleep on Chicago. Jay Cutler has a fair share of quality receivers to throw to and the Bears have quietly assembled an above average front-seven. However, don’t put too much faith in the aforementioned Cutler, either.
4 
7-9
The Lions finished last season by winning six of their final eight, so there is potential for them to sneak into the postseason in 2016. After losing Calvin Johnson, though, I’m not sure Matthew Stafford and the Detroit offense will be consistent enough for the Lions to reach .500.
NFC South
1 
11-5
Even when you account for natural regression after an unexpected 15-win campaign, Carolina is far too talented not to win the NFC South for the third consecutive year. In particular, their front-seven, which is led by All-Pro caliber players like Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Kawann Short, should be the league’s best.
2 
8-8
I was tempted to take Tampa to win the South on the shoulders of a breakout season from Jameis Winston. But the Bucs are one year away. They still have a few holes in their secondary and their offensive line is too shaky.
3 
8-8
The Saints might be the easiest team to forecast–not with respect to their record–but with regards to the type of team they’ll be. Drew Brees and company will put up gaudy stats once again, but their defense still won’t be able to stop a nosebleed.
4 
5-11
I’m very pessimistic about Atlanta’s prospects. The Falcons were fortunate to be 8-8 last season and they’re still thin at practically every position. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones simply won’t be enough to prevent an underachieving season.
NFC West
1 
11-5
Let me dispel the notion that Seattle’s offensive line will hold them back. In short, they had a poor line last year and still ranked 1st in offensive DVOA and fifth in yards per play. The league’s most well-rounded team will edge Arizona for the NFC West title.
2 
11-5
Speaking of well-rounded teams, Arizona will be dangerous in 2016. They have the league’s deepest receiving corps and Tyrann Mathieu and that secondary will be a nightmare to throw against once again.
3 
6-10
The Rams defense is very good, but they’re a tier below Denver’s unit from a year ago. That means Los Angeles won’t be able to overcome poor quarterback play from the likes of Case Keenum and (potentially) Jared Goff.
4 
3-13
Colin Kaepernick’s shenanigans might be the only thing we discuss about the 49ers in 2016. They didn’t make any significant upgrades during the offseason to improve either the offense (28th in DVOA) or defense (27th in DVOA). Chip Kelly will have a difficult first season.
Before I Get to Playoff Predictions, Here are Sixteen Other Predictions for the 2016 Season
1) Let’s start with some award predictions: Aaron Rodgers will win MVP by a landslide
2) Ezekiel Elliott wins offensive rookie of the year after a 1,400+ rushing yard season
3) Antonio Brown finally wins offensive player of the year
4) J.J. Watt will not win DPOY–that honor will go to Luke Kuechly
5) I have little idea who will win coach of the year, but I’ll go with Jack del Rio, who’ll lead Oakland to their first playoff appearance since 2002
6) DROY: Jaguars safety Jalen Ramsey; and his teammate Myles Jack will finish second
7) Surprise Pro Bowlers: Marcus Mariota, Leonard Williams, Ryan Shazier, Golden Tate, and Willie Young
8) Surprise Disappointments: Cam Newton, Allen Robinson, Demaryious Thomas, Kam Chancellor
9) Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson will be the NFL’s top quarterbacks as measured by Total QBR
10) Fourth-rounder Dak Prescott outplays last year’s number two overall pick Carson Wentz to lead all rookie quarterbacks in wins, passing touchdowns, and quarterback rating
11) Adrian Peterson wins his fourth rushing title, but close behind will be Todd Gurley and LeSean McCoy
12) San Francisco will claim the top pick in next year’s draft; the 49ers will be followed, in order, by Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, and Philadelphia
13) Here are the coaches that will be fired on Black Monday: Mike Mularkey (TEN), Chuck Pagano (IND), Mike McCoy (SD), Jim Caldwell (DET), Dan Quinn (ATL), and Jeff Fischer (LA)
14) The Ravens, Cowboys, Giants, and Chargers will see the largest increases in their win totals from 2015
15) Marvin Lewis and the Bengals will finally–finally! –win a playoff game
16) And the winner of Super Bowl LI will be….
Playoff Predictions
AFC Seeds
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Denver
4 Houston
5 Cincinnati
6 Oakland
NFC Seeds
1 Green Bay
2 Seattle
3 Carolina
4 Washington
5 Arizona
6 New York
Wild Card Round
6
over 3 
5 
over 4 
3 
over 6 
4 
over 5 
Divisional Round
1
over 6
2
over 5
1
over 4
2
over 3
AFC Championship
over
Once Tom Brady returns, it’s a good bet that the Patriots offense will be one of the league’s most prolific teams, even with an average offensive line. What people are really sleeping on, though, is the New England defense. Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are the NFL’s best linebacker duo–that will set the tone for the Patriots to have a top six defense and propel them to another Super Bowl appearance by narrowly edging out the Steelers.
NFC Championship
over
The Seahawks have been the NFL’s top team in DVOA each of the past four years. Has anything really changed? OK, Marshawn Lynch is retired. But, as we saw last year, the combination of Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael–as well as Russell Wilson’s scrambling ability–can compensate for the loss of Lynch. Speaking of Wilson, he’s only getting better, and I think with receivers Doug Baldwin, breakout candidate Tyler Lockett, and a healthy Jimmy Graham, Wilson has the best group of weapons he’s ever had. Oh, and let’s not forget about that defense, which is still led by the usual stalwarts–Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Bennett, etc. In short, Seattle is stout in nearly every respect. That’s why they’ll make their third Super Bowl appearance in four years.
Super Bowl LI
over
Full disclosure: If I was 100% objective, I’d probably take Seattle to win it all this year. But I’m not. I’m about 88% objective. That’s why I’m not picking against Belichick and Brady, particularly when the Pats have as good of a roster in many respects as the 2014 team that beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX.
Whether these predictions are on point or as off as some of my early college football predictions so far this year (so much for the Houston Cougars underachieving…), here’s one prediction I hope to get right: It will be another exciting, surprising, and absolutely epic NFL season.
Logos courtesy of sportslogos.net; Roethlisberger photo courtesy of Joe Robbins/Getty Images; Matthews photo courtesy of USA Today Sports
