You know what I can’t wait for? At about 7:00 pm eastern time, the distinctive and nostalgic horns of the NBC Sunday Night Football theme will start playing…a high overhead shot of Sports Authority Field will come onto the television screen…and then Bob Costas will welcome us to the first broadcast of the 2016 NFL season. Oh, what a feeling!
Of course, they’ll also be a football game played tonight. As we know, the Panthers will take on the Broncos in the first Super Bowl rematch played on opening night in decades. Many familiar faces return, but Denver in particular looks different because they no longer have either of their two starting quarterbacks from last year. Yet that’s only one of the many interesting elements in tonight’s game. Here are the key storylines to keep an eye on.
How will Trevor Siemian fare in his debut?
Second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian’s first regular season start will be a difficult one. Not only do we have absolutely idea how the former Northwestern quarterback will look (he has yet to throw a regular season pass), but Carolina has one of the defenses in the NFL (3rd in opponent yards per play in 2015) and they completely shut down the Broncos offense in last year’s Super Bowl, even if the final score doesn’t say so. Denver averaged just 3.5 yards per play in that game. That’s not even below average: It’s downright pathetic. Houston and Indianapolis finished tied for last in this category last year, yet even they still managed to average 4.9 yards per play. Moreover, Denver’s only touchdown drive came after they started with the ball inside Carolina’s five-yard line. Talk about an offensive exhibition!
The good news for Siemian, though, is that the Panthers no longer have a stout secondary. Josh Norman is gone and they now have two rookies, James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, projected to start at both corner positions. That should open things up for Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, particularly if Carolina decide’s to load up against the run.
However, while I expect Thomas and Sanders to make a couple of big plays, the real question won’t be whether the Broncos win the matchups on the outside, but whether Siemian can stand up to the pressure when Carolina’s terrific front-seven bears down on him.
What adjustments will the Panthers offense make?
I know I just criticized Denver’s offense in Super Bowl 50, but let me be clear about one thing: Carolina’s offense was just as bad. I mean, where do we even begin? The Panthers were held to their lowest scoring output of 2015, Cam Newton had a season-worst 16.9 Total QBR, and they turned the ball over four times. How much else can go wrong?
Step one for Carolina if they want to have a better showing tonight will be to contain Von Miller…and DeMarcus Ware…and Derek Wolfe. OK, maybe they should just focus on neutralizing Miller. The problem for the Panthers is that while they are very solid at the guard and center positions, tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers are weak-spots, particularly against teams like the Broncos who have great edge rushers. One solution could be to keep an extra tight end to block more often, but do the Panthers want to sacrifice Greg Olsen’s pass-catching ability? Probably not, which means we might see more of backup tight end Ed Dickson.
Another solution could be to get the ball out of Newton’s hands quicker. But that really isn’t Carolina’s M.O. and even if they did decide to add this element to their game plan, I doubt the Panthers receivers can get open quickly enough against Denver’s terrific secondary. In short, there might not be a way for Carolina’s passing game to have much success.
So what is the solution for their offense? Establish the run. The Panthers are one of the NFL’s better rushing teams and their ground game did a solid job against Denver when they met in the Super Bowl, totaling 118 yards on a respectable 4.4 per carry average. In addition, the Broncos lost defensive tackle Malik Jackson and linebacker Danny Trevathan this offseason. Both players were crucial to Denver’s run defense, which now makes the matchup in the trenches between Carolina’s terrific interior lineman like Ryan Kalil and Denver’s front-seven more exploitable. This should also keep the Panthers out of long down-and-distance situations. 24 out of Carolina’s 31 first down plays in Super Bowl 50 went for less than four yards and nearly half were for for no more than a two-yard gain. If Carolina can get into more manageable situations by establishing the run, they’ll keep Cam Newton out of obvious passing downs, where he won’t be as likely to be a sitting duck for Miller and company.
What’s the betting angle?
Carolina is a three-point favorite and they’re receiving a whopping 78% of bets from the public. That makes this spread tricky for a few reasons. First, it’s typically smart to bet against large public betting favorites and side with the House. Second, defending champions usually do well in their home-openers: They’re a terrific 10-4-1 against the spread over the past fifteen years. And lastly, it’s difficult to pick against the Broncos and their outstanding defense with the spread when they are home underdogs–not to mention the fact that they handled Carolina in their last meeting.
For these reasons, I’m going to avoid the spread and look to the over/under, which Bovada currently has listed at 41.5 total points. As I’ve alluded to throughout, both defenses are outstanding. Denver and Carolina each ranked in the top three in opponent yards per play and the top five in points against in 2015. It’s safe to assume that they’ll be pretty damn good again this season. Moreover, I’m sure many people are skeptical of Denver’s offense with the inexperienced Trevor Siemian at quarterback. We should also be wary of Carolina’s. The Panthers only averaged 4.9 yards per play away from home last year, which would’ve ranked tied for last in the NFL if their offense had been as subpar at home.
Even with the low over/under total, there are clearly a number of reasons why this game should be low scoring. That’s why I’m taking under 41.5 total points as one of my best bets for the weekend. And, for the record, I’m not confident enough to bet on it but I think Denver is the smart play with the spread as well.
Who Wins?
Point spreads aside, I like the Panthers. Luke Kuechly and the Carolina front-seven will stifle Denver’s run game and put Siemian under too much duress. I also think the Panthers offense will execute a little better than they they did in the Super Bowl, or at least just enough to pull out a tight win.
Carolina 20, Denver 17
Newton photo courtesy of Deadspin
