The 2016 college football season is already upon us. So before I look ahead to this weekend’s exciting slate of Week 1 games, I want my predictions for the year on record.
Here are my projections for every team in the preseason Top 25.
25
Prediction: 7-5
Not much too get excited about for Gators fans in 2016. Tim Tebow isn’t walking through that door and the schedule includes three tilts against top ten teams (Tennessee, LSU, and Florida State).
24
Prediction: 9-3
The Ducks closed last season strong. I think they’ll get off to a nice start and upset either Washington or Stanford later in the year.
23
Prediction: 9-3
After a tumultuous offseason, the Bears at least can take solace in the fact that quarterback Seth Russell is back after missing the second half of last season with a neck injury. His presence should be enough to keep Baylor afloat in the race for the Big 12 title.
22
Prediction: 6-6
The Tar Heels surprised many in 2015, but they lost many of their key players from last season’s 11-3 campaign. They’ll take a step back this year.
21
Prediction: 8-4
A soft schedule in the first half of the season will have the Cowboys ranked highly initially. But I don’t trust a defense that consistently gave up 40+ points a year ago.
20
Prediction: 8-4
They have one of the nation’s hardest schedules in 2016, but it’s USC! How bad can they be?
19
Prediction: 9-3
I don’t expect the Cardinals to upset either Clemson or Florida State, so they’ll need to beat up on many of the lesser opponents they play if they want to reach ten wins.
18
Prediction: 11-1
Whether highly touted freshman Jacob Eason–son of Tony Eason in case any Patriots fans were wondering–or senior Grayson Lambert starts for the Bulldogs, they’ll have a strong running game with Nick Chubb and potentially a revamped defense now that former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart is the head coach. They’ll split a doubleheader against Ole Miss and Tennessee in Weeks 4 & 5 and run the table from there.
17
Prediction: 7-5
The Hawkeyes were an incredible 5-1 in one-score games last year. That’s not sustainable, particularly after we all saw how badly Iowa was exposed in the Rose Bowl against Stanford. They’ll fall back down to Earth this season.
16
Prediction: 9-3
We’ll know a lot by the end of September because UCLA has notable matchups against Texas A&M and Stanford. If the supporting players can improve, Josh Rosen and the Bruins may even win the Pac-12.
15
Prediction: 9-3
The Cougars are another team being overrated entering 2016 based on unsustainable turnover production and a big bowl win over Florida State last year. They’ll have a bullseye on their backs this season and drop two games you don’t expect them to (assuming they also lose to Oklahoma Week 1).
14
Prediction: 10-2
The Huskies return one of the nation’s better defenses and have two of their key matchups–Stanford and USC–at home.
13
Prediction: 8-4
The Horned Frogs no longer have Trevone Boykin at quarterback. That spells trouble for TCU this season.
12
Prediction: 8-4
The Spartans won’t come close to reaching the same highs as last year. Their success in one-score games (6-1 in 2015) and their ability to force turnovers will even out in 2016.
11
Prediction: 9-3
The Running Rebels will have to overcome too many significant departures (Laquon Treadwell, Laremy Tunsil, etc) to seriously compete in the SEC. They’ll have moments of brilliance, though.
10
Prediction: 10-2
It doesn’t look like the Fighting Irish will have as tough of a schedule in 2016. That will help their defense overcome a few key losses and finish in the Top 10.
9
Prediction: 9-3
I’m not sold on quarterback Joshua Dobbs. A tough stretch of games starting in late September against Florida and into October will be their undoing.
8
Prediction: 10-2
A brutal schedule that features five teams currently ranked in the Top 25 will keep Christian McCaffrey and the Cardinal out of the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: 12-0
I’m all in on Harbaugh and the Wolverines. The Big Ten is weak and their defense could be the best in the nation. They’ll win their two toughest road battles in East Lansing and Columbus and be the nation’s only undefeated team in the regular season.
6
Prediction: 10-2
The Buckeyes may have lost a ton of talent in last year’s draft, but Ohio State doesn’t know the meaning of the word “rebuild.” With J.T. Barrett at quarterback, they’ll record another double-digit win season. However, they won’t win their two most important games.
5 
Prediction: 10-2
As usual, the Tigers will be very good, but held back by erratic quarterback play. Brandon Harris barely completed 50% of his passes in 2015, which tells me that teams will clamp down on Leonard Fournette and force LSU to beat them through the air. I’m not sure Harris and the Tigers’ passing attack is good enough to do that enough to make the College Football Playoff.
4
Prediction: 11-1
Dalvin Cook and the Seminoles will certainly be back in the College Football Playoff conversation this season. However, they’ll complicate things by dropping their only game to Clemson at home.
3
Prediction: 11-1
I’m sold on the Sooners’ terrific offense, which returns quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Samaje Perine, but their defense is inexperienced. I vacillated between 10-11 wins, but I’ll go with the latter because their non-conference meeting with Ohio State is at home.
2
Prediction: 11-1
I didn’t jump aboard the Clemson bandwagon until late last season, but I’m fully on board entering 2016. Heisman candidate Deshaun Watson has a plethora of weapons and I trust that their defense will overcome a couple of key departures. With that said, it’s going to be tough for the Tigers to make it through the regular season unscathed again with road battles at Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Florida State.
1
Prediction: 11-1
I don’t see how Alabama makes it through 2016 with at least one loss. Their three toughest games (Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU) are all on the road. Sure, the Crimson Tide return a boatload of talent with receivers Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart as well as potential All-American defensive end Jonathan Allen. But with another inexperienced quarterback, I’m going out on a limb and predicting the Tide will lose their early season tilt against the Running Rebels.
While I’m at it, here are my predictions for the annual New Year’s Six bowl games as well.
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs Washington
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Stanford
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Baylor
Fiesta Bowl (semifinal): 1 Michigan vs 4 Oklahoma
Peach Bowl (semifinal): 2 Alabama vs 3 Clemson
At first, I wasn’t crazy about the idea of having three of the four participants from last year’s CFP make it in 2016. But I think this upcoming college football season will be defined by returning talent more so than any other year I can remember. That’s why I’m confident that the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson, and Oklahoma will return and be joined by Jim Harbaugh and his surging Michigan Wolverines.
From there, I expect Michigan and Clemson to meet in Tampa for the third College Football Playoff National Championship. I give the Wolverines the edge defensively over Oklahoma and I think Clemson, which returns a ton of talent offensively, will extract revenge on Alabama.
Beating ‘Bama won’t be the only thing Clemson will avenge in 2016, though. I like them to beat Michigan and win this year’s national title after falling short last season. Dabo will be dancing!
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