As we get closer and closer to the start of the NFL regular season, I’m going to preview eight teams I’m particularly intrigued by this year for various reasons. Today, I’ll begin by analyzing the reigning champs.
The Denver Broncos proved two things last year. One, they confirmed that yes, there are still exceptions to the rule that a team must have an elite (or at least very good) quarterback in order to win the Super Bowl. And two, they proved that, to my chagrin, I don’t know it all.
It looks foolish in hindsight, but I was firmly entrenched in the “There’s No Way The Skeleton of Peyton Manning Leads Denver to the Super Bowl” camp throughout last season. In fact, I went on record during a Check Down radio telecast–Fronte and Brownie can attest to this–and said that the only possible way the Broncos could win the the title would be if they stuck with Brock Osweiler in the playoffs. (Juuuust a bit outside)
Of course, somehow the skeleton of Peyton Manning did lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl title, defeating renowned heavyweights such as the Steelers, my Patriots, and the Panthers along the way. Actually, let me rephrase that. The Denver defense led the Broncos to a Super Bowl title, defeating renowned heavyweights like the Steelers, my Patriots, and the Panthers along the way.
Manning wasn’t as horrible in the playoffs compared to his disastrous 9 TD to 17 INT regular season. He occasionally made some usual Manning throws, oftentimes in crucial moments. His first half performance against the Patriots, in particular, is even enough evidence to show that the Broncos didn’t win in spite of Manning–although his 26.1 Total QBR in the postseason would surely beg to differ.
Who are any of us kidding, though? Denver won last year because they had the greatest defense since the ’85 Bears. Yes, better than the 2013 Seahawks, who had roughly the same defensive DVOA but had the luxury of playing the league’s second easiest slate of offenses that year (the 2015 Broncos, for the record, played the league’s 4th hardest offensive schedule); even better than the ’08 Steelers, who didn’t have to defeat three of the league’s best quarterbacks on their way to the Super Bowl (and hold them to only 14.6 points per game as well); a tad better than the ’02 Buccaneers, who were a little better according to DVOA but played the league’s easiest slate of offenses that year; and yes, even better than those vaunted 2000 Ravens, who weren’t nearly as good at defending the pass as Denver–which is a must in today’s NFL–and, like some of the other teams I just mentioned, faced a very easy offensive schedule.
The Broncos defense should be just as good in 2016. Despite losing disruptive defensive lineman Malik Jackson and versatile linebacker Danny Trevathan, the most integral players on Denver’s defense return. Reigning Super Bowl MVP Von Miller is back. Fellow edge rusher DeMarcus Ware lives to play another down even at the age of thirty-four. And in the secondary, the–is it acceptable to call them this?–fierce five of Chris Harris Jr, Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, T.J. Ward, and Darian Stewart make up not only the league’s best defensive backfield, but it’s deepest as well.
With such a stout defense, why isn’t everyone excited about the Broncos in 2016? According to Bovada, Denver has the same Super Bowl 51 future odds as the Cowboys and Colts, who are both coming off very underwhelming seasons, albeit mostly due to injuries. That can’t be right…right?
Well, I suppose when Mark Sanchez is projected to be your starter opening night, I guess it can be. For the record, Sanchez, who was signed this offseason after two erratic seasons in Philadelphia, has not won the job yet. Word is that he is in a dead heat with a fella by the name of Trevor Siemian (who?); and I’d wager there’s a chance–a chance–that both could cede the job to rookie Paxton Lynch at some point this season.
But let’s assume Sanchez wins the job because he has the most experience of the three. Is he really much of a comedown from Manning, or even Osweiler? Here are Sanchez’s numbers over the past two years compared to the aggregate output of Manning and Osweiler from last season. *Note- DYAR stands for Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement.
Sanchez (12 games): 64.7 completion%, 7.1 yards/attempt, 18 TD, 15 INT, 50.5 QBR, -17 DYAR
Manning & Osweiler (16 games): 59.9 completion%, 7.0 yards/attempt, 19 TD, 23 INT, 49.6 QBR, -173 DYAR
Of course, Sanchez’s stats came while playing in Chip Kelly’s system, and we know how that can deceptively inflate a quarterback’s production (i.e. Nick Foles- speaking of which, how the hell did he once throw 27 TD’s and 2 INT’s?). However, Sanchez has never had weapons like Demaryious Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, either. Moreover, even though Denver’s total passing output from 2015 is skewed by Manning’s horrific first half, it’s not like Osweiler was much better. He avoided the multi-interception games far more often than Manning, but only three of his seven starts would be considered better than average by Total QBR standards–that is, a rating above 50. So the point is this: Even though Denver fans might have some cause for concern regarding their quarterback position this year–I mean, it’s not like Sanchez is ever going to inspire a whole lot of confidence–they probably aren’t any worse off than they were a year ago. And look how that turned out.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention a few factors that could cause Denver to regress in 2016. I noted in July how Denver was extremely lucky in multiple respects last year. Their good fortune, particularly in close contests, is by no means sustainable simply based on the law of averages. The Broncos offensive line also faces numerous questions as well–they were only graded as the 28th best blocking unit by Pro Football Focus in 2015 and potentially return only one starter.
In short, I wouldn’t bet on the Broncos repeating as Super Bowl champions with Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian (who?) or perhaps even Paxton Lynch as their starting quarterback. However, I wouldn’t bet against them making another deep playoff run, either. Not with that defense, which is used to carrying anemic offenses regardless of whether there is a Manning or a Sanchez under center.
Miller photo courtesy of Ron Cheony/USA Today Sports
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