Since we weren’t treated to the Hall of Fame game last Sunday, the NFL preseason will officially begin tomorrow night. There’s no need to rearrange your schedule if you have other plans, but it certainly will be refreshing to finally watch a little football for the first time in six months.
Of course, it doesn’t matter in the slightest who wins these games. All that really matters is that whichever team you root for enters September healthy. However, these games are also interesting from a betting standpoint. As I wrote about the other day, preseason games offer plenty of value, sometimes even more so than regular season contests. But before I analyze this week’s slate of games, I want to discuss a theory.
I came across an article a while back about how it’s profitable to bet against NBA playoff teams in the preseason, particularly when they are heavy favorites. The theory was relatively simple: Playoff teams tend to have more good players, but they’ll often choose to rest them for the actual season.
I was interested to see if this could apply to the NFL preseason. Instead of looking at all playoff teams, though, I wanted to look at “elite” teams. For the purposes of this article, I define elite teams as those that are coming off a conference championship appearance. The reason why is that many people base their current opinions on what has happened most recently–you’ve probably heard the term recency bias at some point or another. I think bettors are most likely to overvalue teams coming off deep playoff runs because it’s the most accessible information they have when making a decision.
After looking at every conference finalist from the past ten years, it turns out that these teams are largely overvalued in the following preseason. Against the spread, these teams are only 82-79 (.509). That’s certainly not a bad record by any means, but in order to be profitable against the spread, a particular strategy must have a win percentage of at least .530, or 53% in order to cover “the juice.” (The juice is considered the commission you must pay to place a bet; explained further here).
However, that .509 win percentage over the past ten years is deceptive. It’s common knowledge that coaches use the third preseason game as the main tune-up for the regular season. That’s why you’ll usually hear pundits refer to this game as the most game-like of all the other preseason games. Of course, if the third preseason game is the most similar to an actual regular season game, than these teams coming off conference championship appearances should perform better.
That’s exactly what has happened: Since 2005, these teams are 24-16 (.600) against the spread in Week 3 of the preseason; and in the last five years, that record improves to 13-7 (.650). If we exclude these games from the other preseason contests, the preseason record of elite teams over the past ten years drops to 58-63 (.479). That’s not only far worse than what you would normally expect from teams coming off Super Bowl appearances, but it is clearly not profitable. Moreover, since most of these teams are usually favored with the moneyline, it’s likely very profitable to bet on these teams to losing straight up rather than with the spread as well.
Betting against teams who appeared in either conference championship game last year is a strategy that could be put to use right away. Thursday’s slate of games features both Super Bowl representatives as well as the Patriots. And while almost all home teams in Week 1 of the preseason are favored by 3 points, the Panthers and Broncos are two of the only exceptions. Carolina is only a 1.5 point underdog against the Ravens while the line between Denver and Chicago is even.
This is the perfect segue into the next section of this article, so let’s get right into my thoughts on the first week of preseason football.
Thursday
New Orleans vs New England (-3) o/u 39
Bill Belichick typically let’s many of his key starters in the first preseason game. I also like the Saints quarterback depth with backups Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson and, given what I said earlier, I’m a believer in betting against the best regular season teams in August.
Pick: New Orleans +3
Washington vs Atlanta (-3) o/u 37
The Redskins have been an excellent preseason team in the past, but things have changed now that Kirk Cousins no longer has to compete for his position. Plus, Jordan Reed and Trent Williams are likely out.
Pick: Atlanta -3
Carolina vs Baltimore (-1.5) o/u 36.5
Considering what I said earlier, I’m picking against the defending NFC champs.
Pick: Baltimore -1.5
Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia (-3.5) o/u 37
I love the Eagles this preseason because with the combination of Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, and Carson Wentz, Philadelphia is extremely deep at the quarterback position.
Pick: Philadelphia -3.5
Denver vs Chicago (-0.5) o/u 35
I suppose Gary Kubiak could call a lot of passing plays to see what he has in his three quarterbacks. Nonetheless, I’m very confident in Chicago at home against the reigning champs.
Pick: Chicago -0.5
Friday
Miami vs New York Giants (-3) o/u 36.5
Eli Manning and the Giants starters tend to only play one series in the first exhibition game (if that). Meanwhile, I bet new Miami coach Adam Gase might leave Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins first team offense in for around a quarter to get used to a new system.
Pick: Miami +3
Cleveland vs Green Bay *betting line not currently available
I don’t expect to see any of the key Green Bay starters on the field. I also love Cleveland’s quarterback depth with Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, and Austin Davis.
Pick: Cleveland
Saturday
Dallas vs Los Angeles (-4) o/u 35
Dallas has been an awful preseason team over the past few years. That probably won’t change this year because there’s little quarterback depth after Tony Romo.
Pick: Los Angeles -4
Sunday
Houston vs San Francisco (-3) o/u 36
Chip Kelly’s Eagles were one of the NFL’s highest-scoring and most successful preseason teams (too bad that didn’t carry over to the regular season). There’s no reason to think Kelly won’t unleash his new offense in San Francisco.
Pick: San Francisco -3
