In our first of eight roundtable division previews, we take a look at the AFC East, which should be interesting considering how many of us are either Patriots or Jets fans.
New England, as usual, is the reigning AFC East champ. But with Tom Brady out for the first four games, is the door open for one of the East’s other three teams? The Jets are coming off a strong 10-6 season and they no longer have to worry about their QB position now that Ryan Fitzpatrick has resigned. Meanwhile, Buffalo has a better offense than usual and Miami has a few intriguing pieces to go along with a new head coach in Adam Gase.
Can one of these three teams knock off the Patriots? JMac, Mando, Hempdad, and Fronte make their picks and give bold predictions related to the division as well.
JMac 
Tom Brady may be missing the first quarter of the regular season, but his absence won’t be enough to keep the Patriots from winning their 14th AFC East title since 2000. There’s simply too much firepower on the offensive side of the football, and with Martellus Bennett joining forces with Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots tight end arsenal just got a lot scarier. As far as their defense is concerned, one thing I love about this Patriots team is the secondary–it’s starting to get a little older, but these guys know how to play together at this point. Guys like Devin McCourty and Logan Ryan are veterans that can be trusted against receiving corps, and rookie Cyrus Jones will look to stand out at corner. The Pats will contend for another Lombardi trophy in 2016, and no AFC East team will make it too complicated for them.
Elsewhere, the Bills are showing signs of a rejuvenated offense after several years of tooling with their defense. Buffalo has a solid receiving unit in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, and LeSean McCoy is back for what the Bills hope to be a 1,500+ yard season (it might have to be to get this team in the playoffs).
With an improved Bills team, I think the Jets will take just a tiny step back this year. They didn’t make any remarkable changes this offseason, though signing Ryan Fitzpatrick was just about the best thing the Jets could have done. I see the Jets hovering around the .500 mark with Buffalo.
Lastly, I think Miami will struggle this year with a new head coach and some new faces that will take time to mesh. However, acquiring Arian Foster was a great move for a team struggling to find its identity on offense, and a scary defensive front will make life tough for opposing offensive lines. 6-10 seems like a reasonable mark.
Bold Prediction: Ryan Fitzpatrick will win AFC Player of the Month once this year
Fitzy will be ready to go following his contract agreement, and he’s going to have a field day hitting Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall in the open field. Fear the beard. Fear it.
Mando
When Tom Brady had a healthy receiving corps and offensive line in the first half of 2015, the Patriots ranked first and second in the NFL points per game and yards per play, respectively. Simply put, the primary reason for their second half downturn was injuries: With better health, the Patriots easily could’ve been Super Bowl champs. Sure, you could ask what relevance last year has to this upcoming season. But with reports out of Foxboro saying that Brady looks as good as ever and improved health in 2016, which is relatively safe to assume given how many key players went down last year, I expect New England to be right around 11 or 12 wins even if they get off to a slow start in Brady’s absence.
However, the Jets and Bills should provide some resistance. New York is very well-rounded and the Bills could be dangerous if Rex Ryan fixes their defense. The biggest obstacle in each of these teams’ way, though, might be their schedules. The Jets open up with five games in six weeks against playoff teams and must also face Brady and the Patriots twice later in the season. The Bills don’t have quite as hard of a slate, but they must travel to Baltimore, Seattle, and Cincinnati for some tough out-of-division battles.
Ultimately, neither of those teams have quite the offenses to win more than 10 games. New England does, even without Brady to start the year.
Bold Prediction: Miami brings up the rear by at least three games
There may not be a big gap between the Patriots, Jets, and Bills, but I think there will be one between those teams and the Dolphins. Miami’s offense shouldn’t be bad, but their defense, which ranked 29th against the pass last year, projects to be below average once again. That doesn’t bode well, especially since they’ll be facing quarterbacks like Brady, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Carson Palmer.
Hempdad
Being a Pats fan and a sports writer is hard, especially when it comes to picking the winner of one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL. But my pick for the AFC East will be what my heart says every year, the New England Patriots.
“But Tom Brady will be out for the first four games!” At least, that’s what all the doubters say. What people forget, though, is that Brady has had a team behind him when he went to all 10 of his AFC Championship Games, just like he will this year. New England’s stellar receiving core of Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and the newly acquired Martellus Bennett is complemented well by supporting players like Danny Amendola, running back Dion Lewis, and the secret weapon of the team, James White. While their defense may be a bit unsteady, particularly on the defensive line, the Patriots have a better secondary than you think with the combination of Malcolm Butler, Devin McCourty, and Patrick Chung. Plus, the Patriots, on paper, have one of the easier schedules in the NFL this year. Assuming they go 4-2 or 5-1 in their division like they normally do, their two toughest games this year will probably come against Seattle and Denver (the Steelers game would’ve been up there, but we beat them last year and Martavis Bryant is out for the season, which eliminates a huge receiving weapon for Ben Roethlisberger).
Ultimately, no team in the AFC East is a threat to the Pats. Tyrod Taylor and the Bills? Nope. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets? Not quite. The Dolphins? Probably not. All things considered, the Patriots shouldn’t have a problem stomping through the regular season once again.
Bold Prediction: The Dolphins will finish 11-5
Led by receivers Jarvis Landry and breakout candidate DeVante Parker, the Dolphins will give the Patriots a serious run for their money.
Fronte 
Contrary to what my heart wants, my head is telling me to take the Patriots. But after reading the previous Masshole responses, I’m going with my heart. The Jets are ready to win now. With Ryan Fitzpatrick back and no other major personnel downgrades, I like their chances to overtake the Patriots and win the AFC East.
Contrary to what a vast majority of Patriot fans believe, starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback for their first four games will hurt their chances to win the division. No one really knows what to expect out of Garoppolo, but I can tell you one thing, he’s not Tom Brady. Being a young quarterback who has struggled with accuracy in the past, Garoppolo will have to face three teams that are among the league’s best at pressuring the quarterback (Cardinals, Texans, Bills). Are we sure that the inexperienced Garoppolo can be thrown into the fire and produce? Even when Brady returns, who’s to say this isn’t the year he starts feeling the effects of being 39 years old? In addition, contrary to what Hempdad said, the Patriots arguably have just as tough of a schedule as the Jets. According to NFL.com, the Jets are tied for the seventh toughest schedule, while the Patriots come in just two sports behind at ninth.
The Jets have a team that has untapped potential. Defensively, their front seven looks to be even more dominant than last year. Leonard Williams is poised for a breakout sophomore season as he tallied 5 sacks and 29 tackles last year. Also, let’s not forget about their unstoppable forces–Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. The Jets have also added former Steeler Steve McLendon at nose tackle to replace Damon Harrison.
On the other side of the ball, this offense has some of the best chemistry in football. I’ve never seen a closer knit group than Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. And that chemistry has translated to production on the field. Specifically looking at Decker and Marshall, this receiver tandem is one of the best in the NFL: Last year they tallied 2,529 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns. With the addition of two former pro bowl players in Matt Forte and Ryan Clady, this Jets offense is ready to take another step forward.
I think it all comes together this year for the Jets, who proved down the stretch proved last season that they deserved to be considered a top team in the league. Cue up Bart Scott saying “can’t wait.”
Bold Prediction: If picking the Jets to win a division that has been won by the Patriots twelve times out of the last thirteen years isn’t bold enough for you, see a doctor.
Marshall photo courtesy of Getty Images
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