You’d be surprised how much money is bet on preseason NFL games. Estimates show that the amount of bets placed on days in which there are at least eight preseason contests nearly triples the amount of action MLB games receive that day.
I always wondered why people would be so invested in these meaningless contests. Was it because they simply were excited that football was back? That’s certainly part of the equation, but not all of it.
The other main reason some people love the preseason is that there is unbelievable betting value. For instance, let’s look back at last year’s Hall of Fame game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings. We can safely assume that if this game was played in the regular season, then the Steelers would have been favored–Pittsburgh was coming off a playoff appearance while Minnesota was not. But one thing you’ll notice with preseason odds is that most of the lines are within 3 points. While you’ll see a few double-digit underdogs on a weekly basis during the regular season, you likely won’t see a dog of more than 6 points in August. In this case, Minnesota was actually the favorite, but only by one point.
You might think that this is a misappropriation of value because Pittsburgh, all things being equal, is better than Minnesota. But that’s not where I’m going. A day before the game, Mike Tomlin announced that Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown, among other key players, would not play. Since the Steelers have more veterans on their team, I suppose Tomlin wanted to use this game as an audition to see what their younger guys could do. Meanwhile, the Vikings intended to play their first team offense and defense–minus Adrian Peterson–for the entire first quarter.
Clearly, this gave Minnesota a significant edge from a betting standpoint: Their starters would get a full quarter against a Pittsburgh team without many of its key players. Even if we consider how this knowledge adjusted the betting odds (the line closed at -2.5, according to my records), then that’s still nice value for the Vikings, who went on to win the game 14-3.
Paying attention to headlines is extremely important (not to mention easy), but it’s not the only way to spot value in these contests. Here are three other tips for betting on the preseason.
Know the Second and Third-String Quarterbacks
Now that Robert Griffin III is in Cleveland, the Redskins preseason dynasty may be coming to an end, unfortunately. Why is this unfortunate? Because the Redskins were like holding a pair of kings at the blackjack table: Over the last three preseasons, Washington was a terrific 13-3 in exhibition contests, including a 3-1 record last year.
Why have they been so good? Simple: Quarterback depth. The trio of Kirk Cousins, Robert Griffin III, and Colt McCoy may not ever win a Super Bowl, but they are all still fairly competent regular season quarterbacks (particularly Cousins, who is coming off of a very good year). For instance, when most teams are trumping out 6th round rookies in the 4th quarter of preseason games, the Redskins routinely turned to McCoy, who at least has legitimate regular season experience.
Another very good preseason team over the past few years has been the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, John Harbaugh’s squad is usually terrific when it counts, too. But the main reason why they were able to have 4-0 preseasons like they did in 2014 is because they had Tyrod Taylor backing up Joe Flacco. Taylor, as we found out last season, is a pretty good starting quarterback. But for the first four years of his career, he was playing against second-string defenses in the second half of preseason games. No wonder why Baltimore’s preseason games used to be so high scoring.
Lastly, let’s look back at how the Kansas City Chiefs fared in the preseason last year with Chase Daniel, one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks and, at least by some people’s estimation, a worthy starter.
- Daniel’s Stats (3 games): 77.4 completion%, 388 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, 120.8 quarterback rating
Clearly, Daniel tore it up against non-starters after he relieved Alex Smith in the second and third quarter of games. What was the Chiefs record in the preseason last year, you might ask? 4-0.
Simply put, teams with good backup quarterbacks tend to win in the preseason. Here are a few teams to keep an eye on this August:
- Philadelphia: Sam Bradford seems likely to be the starter in Week 1, but I bet new coach Doug Pederson wants to make sure that Bradford gets plenty of reps in a new system. Plus, the Eagles now have Chase Daniel, arguably my favorite preseason quarterback, who is familiar with Pederson’s system. And on top of that, they also have second overall pick Carson Wentz. In short, I expect the Eagles to be a juggernaut this preseason.
- New England: With Tom Brady officially sidelined for four weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bill Belichick play Brady more in these exhibition games. However, he must do this while also giving plenty of reps to Jimmy Garopollo, who must get ready to start in Week 1. Simply put, I expect both of these two to give the Patriots a significant offensive edge in August.
- San Francisco: I’ll have more to say about Chip Kelly in a bit, but know this: His Eagles averaged a league-high of close to 30 points over the past three years in the preseason. Considering that Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick are both vying for the starting quarterback position, both should receive a lot of playing time during the preseason. Even third-string QB Thad Lewis has a little bit of regular season experience.
- Other Teams of Note: Washington, Cleveland, Denver, Houston
Take Note of Pass/Run Splits- It Usually Leads to Lower Scoring Games
In the regular season, the average split between passing and rushing attempts has been roughly 60/40 over the past few years. In contrast, teams tend to run the ball more often in the preseason. Check out the preseason rushing attempt percentages of the five most pass-happy teams in the league from last year:
- Lions: 34.3% regular season vs 46.0% preseason
- Jaguars: 34.9% regular season vs 39.5% preseason
- Patriots: 35.0% regular season vs 40.4% preseason
- Dolphins: 35.2% regular season vs 45.8% preseason
- Ravens: 35.3% regular season vs 45.5% preseason
- Total: 34.9% regular season vs 43.4% preseason
Overall, these five teams ran the ball 24.3% more often in the preseason than they did in the regular season; and if you look at many of the league’s other 32 teams, you’ll find similar results. My theory is that coaches want to establish basic running plays before developing many of their more advanced blocking schemes. Plus, I’m sure they don’t want their starting quarterbacks being exposed to too much poundage.
What are the implications of this? For starters, if teams run more, then there will typically be longer possessions. Also, since a majority of big-plays occur through the air, sustained drives will take even more time off the clock than they would in the regular season. In short, fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities to score. That, of course, means that games are likely to be low scoring.
Judging by the over/under totals for preseason games, the oddsmakers are aware of this trend. Particularly in the first and last week of the preseason, where backups get a majority of playing time, the over/under totals are usually in the mid-30’s. That’s noticeably lower than average regular season totals, which are usually around 10 points higher.
However, this doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities to exploit. When the over/under total was higher than 40 in weeks 1-3 of the preseason in 2015, the under was 14-9. Moreover, games in which a group of key offensive starters are ruled out (like the Vikings/Steelers example I mentioned earlier) tend to fall way under the total as well. For instance, the Cowboys usually decide to play Tony Romo sparingly in the preseason, particularly in games 1 & 2. Therefore, it shouldn’t be surprising that they have only averaged 12 points per game in those contests over the past two seasons.
Study Trends From Past Years (And Have as Much Info as Possible)
With certain coaches, you can get a sense of what kind of approach they will take in a preseason game based on what they have done in the past. That’s why you’ll often hear about the third preseason game being the most important: Nearly all coaches have used it as the final tune up for their starters.
But some coaches approach the preseason differently. Chip Kelly, who I referenced earlier, seems to call plays like he would in the regular season. In their first three games last year, the Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points respectively. Other coaches with veteran quarterbacks (Dallas, San Diego, etc.) tend to play them very little, aside from the third preseason game. And lastly, if you’re a coach with a quarterback competition, you may need to call more passing plays to see who is better. That may lead to more points because passing plays lead to greater net yardage than run plays.
In addition to studying trends, capitalizing on value ultimately comes down to having as much information as possible. As I said in the opening, there are plenty of opportunities when, say, a team may be favored even though their best players only project to play the first series, or when a team with great quarterback depth may be an underdog.
Take New England’s opening preseason game last year, for example. The Patriots were playing at home against Green Bay, where they were favored by three points. However, it was reported beforehand that Tom Brady was unlikely to play. Also, knowing Bill Belichick’s tendencies from past years, it seemed unlikely that he’d risk playing guys like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, either. For those reasons, I actually bet against my Patriots (don’t worry Pats fans, I’d never do such a thing if the game really mattered). Green Bay won easily.
Opportunities like this abound in the preseason. Don’t miss them.
Bradford photo courtesy of Getty Images
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