Yesterday’s MLB trade deadline included more activity than usual. Sure, arguably the biggest name on the market–Chris Sale–wasn’t moved, but there were still multiple deals that project to have a noticeable impact on the pennant races. The Texas Rangers were a part of two of those prominent trades: Early in the day, they were finally able to pry coveted catcher Jonathan Lucroy out of Milwaukee (he had vetoed a trade to Cleveland a couple days ago). Then, they acquired Carlos Beltran (.304, 22 home runs, 64 RBI’s) from the Yankees to sure up both their outfield as well as their DH spot after Prince Fielder went down with a season-ending neck injury.
In the National League, the New York Mets brought in some offensive help by acquiring Jay Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds. Some are wondering how Bruce will effect the Mets outfield defensively, but if he can help bolster their offense, then it looks to be a worthwhile trade for the reigning NL champs. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers made an interesting trade with Oakland, acquiring pitcher Rich Hill (2.25 ERA) and outfielder Josh Reddick. This is a noteworthy trade for two reasons. One, it reassures the Dodgers pitching staff, which must make do without Clayton Kershaw for the time-being (Hill, however, is currently on the DL– he projects to be back in a week, though). And two, by bringing in another outfielder, this trade creates controversy surrounding LA’s second biggest star: Yasiel Puig. With Reddick, the Dodgers outfield is now a little bit more competitive, and since the Dodgers weren’t able to trade Puig, who is only batting .260 with 7 home runs, they apparently are set on sending him to the minors. This is a shocking turn of events for the former All-Star, but considering how difficult he reportedly is to manage, it isn’t all to surprising.
If we factor in all the moves that occurred before the official deadline, like Aroldis Chapman’s trade to the Cubs for instance, then this was certainly one of the more active trading periods in some time. Yet here is my question: How can people assess whether a team “won” or “lost” at the deadline? Because if you look on practically every sports or MLB website, you’ll find an article or a video about which teams are heading to the World Series after a couple of trades. Of course, you can predict whether a trade will work out; but my problem is that many people make declarative statements despite the fact that most of these players haven’t played an inning with their new team–it’s like they know for a fact that Jonathan Lucroy is going to work out great for the Rangers, or that the Houston Astros are doomed because now Texas is the heavy favorite to win the AL West.
With that said, maybe there is some validity to these articles about the “winners” and “losers” of the trade deadline. So here’s my follow-up question: How have trade deadline winners fared in the past? Simply put, I’m going to scour the internet for articles about notable deadline winners from the past few years, comparing how they fared both before and after these supposedly decisive trades. For the record, I’m not going to look at the “losers” because it’s tougher to analyze how successful a trade was for a team that dumps a superstar in exchange for prospects that may take a few years to develop.
Without further ado, let’s see if it’s actually important for MLB teams to be a big winner at the trade deadline.
*Note: the “winners” are based on various articles I found and trades I remember.
2015
Winner: 
Acquired OF Carlos Gomez, SP Scott Kazmir, & SP Mike Fiers
Record Before Deadline: 58-46 (.558)
Record After Deadline: 28-30 (.483)
Playoff Result: Lost in ALDS
Success? No, the Astros were coasting along until they nearly collapsed in the second half of the season, in part because none of these three acquisitions panned out like expected. They did have a nice little playoff run, though.
Winner: 
Acquired 2B Ben Zobrist & SP Johnny Cueto
Record Before Deadline: 61-41 (.598)
Record After Deadline: 34-26 (.567)
Playoff Result: Won World Series
Success? Absolutely. I mean, they won the World Series!
Winner: 
Acquired SP David Price & SS Troy Tulowitzki
Record Before Deadline: 53-51 (.510)
Record After Deadline: 40-18 (.690)
Playoff Result: Lost in ALCS
Success? Yes, the Blue Jays became a powerhouse after these two trades.
Winner: 
Acquired OF Yoenis Cespedes
Record Before Deadline: 53-50 (.515)
Record After Deadline: 37-22 (.627)
Playoff Result: Lost in World Series
Success? Yes, while some people actually thought the Mets were losers at this deadline, most thought the Mets made a great decision by acquiring Cespedes. It turns out those people were right.
2014
Winner: 
Acquired SP Jon Lester and SP Jeff Samardzija
Record Before Deadline: 66-41 (.617)
Record After Deadline: 22-33 (.400)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Game
Success? No, the Athletics went in the complete wrong direction after many thought that the combination of Lester, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Samardzija would guide them to the World Series.
Winner: 
Acquired SP David Price
Record Before Deadline: 58-47 (.552)
Record After Deadline: 32-25 (.561)
Playoff Result: Lost in ALDS
Success? Kind of a wash. The Tigers pretty much stayed the same even after they acquired Price.
Winner: 
Acquired SP John Lackey and SP Justin Masterson
Record Before Deadline: 57-50 (.533)
Record After Deadline: 33-22 (.600)
Playoff Result: Lost in NLCS
Success? Not really. Both Lackey and Masterson put up replacement-level stats even though the Cardinals continued to thrive.
2013
Winner: 
Acquired SP Jake Peavy
Record Before Deadline: 65-44 (.596)
Record After Deadline: 32-21 (.604)
Playoff Result: Won World Series
Success? Yes, the Red Sox bolstered their starting pitching depth, which later helped them win the World Series. Peavy, however, wasn’t exactly outstanding.
2012
Winner: 
Acquired SS Hanley Ramirez, OF Shane Victorino, RP Brandon League
Record Before Deadline: 56-49 (.533)
Record After Deadline: 30-27 (.526)
Playoff Result: Did Not Make Playoffs
Success? In the short term, no. The Dodgers didn’t even make the playoffs. Ramirez was a vital part of their 2013 squad that appeared in the NLCS, though.
Winner: 
Acquired OF Hunter Pence
Record Before Deadline: 56-47 (.544)
Record After Deadline: 38-21 (.644)
Playoff Result: Won World Series
Success? An unequivocal yes. Pence energized the Giants and helped them not only win the 2012 World Series, but the 2014 title as well.
Winner: 
Acquired SP Zack Greinke
Record Before Deadline: 57-47 (.548)
Record After Deadline: 32-26 (.552)
Playoff Result: Did Not Make Playoffs
Success? No. Greinke pitched well during his brief stint in Anaheim, but the Angels were expecting the combination of Greinke, Jered Weaver, and C.J. Wilson to be a formidable trio in the playoffs. Too bad they didn’t get there.
Looking back over these past four years, it looks as if it’s 50/50 whether these deadline winners ultimately become more successful. Interestingly enough, three of the previous four World Series winners all made key acquisitions at the end of July, which may be great news for teams like Texas and Cleveland this year. However, for every team like Kansas City that lands two guys like Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist that play integral roles in a World Series run, there are teams like the 2014 Athletics, who fall very short of expectations.
So, while a little more than half of these teams ended up going on deep playoff runs, be wary if your team is being tabbed as a World Series favorite only after making a trade.
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