Last week, I wrote an article in which I made early predictions for the upcoming NBA season. Sure, it isn’t basketball season right now, but I figured since free agency had just about ended, it was officially safe to start making realistic predictions for next year. This same logic can also be applied to America’s other major winter sport, the NHL.
When it comes to hockey predictions, I believe in this motto: When and doubt, take the better defense. For instance, the top five teams in goals against last year averaged 105 points. Moreover, all four of the conference finalists from a year ago finished in the top ten in this same category. And if you’re still not convinced that defense is the most important facet of hockey, then you should know that not one of the teams in the bottom ten of goals against made the playoffs in 2015-16.
However, making predictions of this nature doesn’t only come down to picking the best defenses. That’s why I’ve identified three indicators that are useful in determining which teams might be poised to either improve or regress. The first of these indicators is goal differential. The idea that a team’s goal or point differential is a better predictor of future success than win/loss records is something I’ve discussed before. The beauty of looking at a team’s pythagorean win expectation, which tells us what a team’s record should be based on their goal differential, is that it applies to all sports. Simply put, teams that have historically overperformed their win expectation regress the following season. In contrast, teams that underperform their expected win total tend to improve.
Let’s look at how this applied to NHL teams last year:
Overachievers
- Anaheim: overperformed by 9 wins in 2014-15
- regressed by 6 points in 2015-16 (109 to 103)
- Montreal: overperformed by 4 wins
- regressed by 28 points (110 to 82)
- Vancouver: overperformed by 4 wins
- regressed by 26 points (101 to 75)
- New York Rangers: overperformed by 3 wins
- regressed by 12 points (113 to 101)
- New York Islanders: overperformed by 3 wins
- regressed by 1 point (101 to 100)
- Columbus: overperformed by 3 wins
- regressed by 13 points (89 to 76)
- St. Louis: overperformed by 3 wins
- regressed by 2 points (109 to 107)
Underachievers
- Philadelphia: underperformed by 5 wins in 2014-15
- improved by 12 points in 2015-16 (84 to 96)
- Carolina: underperformed by 5 wins
- improved by 15 points (71 to 86)
- Edmonton: underperformed by 5 wins
- improved by 8 points (62 to 70)
- Toronto: underperformed by 4 wins
- improved by 1 point (68 to 69)
- New Jersey: underperformed by 3 wins
- improved by 6 points (78 to 84)
- Los Angeles: underperformed by 3 wins
- improved by 7 points (95 to 102)
For the overachievers, while the level of regression varied, every one of those teams listed above declined after outperforming their pythagorean win expectation. On average, these teams regressed by an average of 12 points. Similarly, every major underachiever improved in 2015-16, and on average they increased their point total by 8.
Here are the teams that could see their point totals change dramatically in 2016-17.
Overachievers from last season
- Washington: overperformed by 6 wins
- Dallas: overperformed by 4 wins
- St. Louis: overperformed by 4 wins
Underachievers from last season
- Toronto: underperformed by 5 wins
- Minnesota: underperformed by 5 wins
- Edmonton: underperformed by 3 wins
- Buffalo: underperformed by 3 wins
The final two underlying indicators of future performance are very similar to one another: Overtime losses and shootout record. I’ll start with overtime losses. I had an intuition a while ago that success in overtime was fairly random. Sure, great teams probably win in OT a tad more often then they lose, and vis versa. But for the most part, I suspected that teams will generally hover around .500 in these situations.
It turns out that my hunch was correct: Teams that lose an unusually high amount of overtime games tend to regress to the mean the following year and teams that lose an uncharacteristically low amount of overtime games tend to ascend to the mean. Let’s look at how this played out last season:
Teams with most overtime losses
- Philadelphia: 18 OT losses in 2014-15 (84 points)
- 14 OT losses in 2015-16 (96 points)
- Los Angeles: 15 OT losses in ’14-15 (95 points)
- 6 OT losses in ’15-16 (102 points)
- Florida: 15 OT losses in ’14-15 (91 points)
- 9 OT losses in ’15-16 (103 points)
- Edmonton: 14 OT losses in ’14-15 (62 points)
- 8 OT losses in ’15-16 (70 points)
- New Jersey: 14 OT losses in ’14-15 (78 points)
- 8 OT losses in ’15-16 (84 points)
- Boston: 14 OT losses in ’14-15 (96 points)
- 9 OT losses in ’15-16 (93 points)
- Detroit: 14 OT losses in ’14-15 (100 points)
- 11 OT losses in ’15-16 (93 points)
While only five of these seven teams improved on their point total from the previous season, all seven saw their overtime losses decline dramatically. In turn, these teams collectively improved by an average of 5 points as well.
Teams with fewest overtime losses
- Vancouver: 5 OT losses in 2014-15 (101 points)
- 13 OT losses in 2015-16 (75 points)
- Columbus: 5 OT losses in ’14-15 (89 points)
- 8 OT losses in ’15-16 (76 points)
- Chicago: 6 OT losses in ’14-15 (102 points)
- 9 OT losses in ’15-16 (103 points)
- Anaheim: 7 OT losses in ’14-15 (109 points)
- 11 OT losses in ’15-16 (103 points)
- Calgary: 7 OT losses in ’14-15 (97 points)
- 7 OT losses in ’15-16 (77 points)
- St. Louis: 7 OT losses in ’14-15 (109 points)
- 9 OT losses in ’15-16 (107 points)
- New York Rangers: 7 OT losses in ’14-15 (113 points)
- 9 OT losses in ’15-16 (101 points)
- New York Islanders: 7 OT losses in ’14-15 (101 points)
- 10 OT losses in ’15-16 (100 points)
Of these eight teams, seven of them saw their overtime loss totals increase (one team, Calgary, had no change). In addition, these teams saw their point totals decrease by roughly 10 points.
Now let’s look at shootout performance, the last of the three indicators helpful in predicting which teams might surprise or disappoint. The same logic holds: Teams that either perform far better or far worse than the average come back to Earth the following season in this category, and they usually see their point totals change as a result. Here are some stats from last year:
Teams with records above .650 in shootouts in 2014-15
- Columbus: 9-2 (89 points)
- 6-4 in 2015-16 (76 points)
- St. Louis: 9-4 (109 points)
- 5-4 in ’15-16 (107 points)
- Chicago: 9-3 (102 points)
- 1-2 in ’15-16 (103 points)
- Colorado: 10-4 (90 points)
- 4-0 in ’15-16 (82 points)
- Vancouver: 6-2 (101 points)
- 5-4 in ’15-16 (75 points)
Teams with records below .350 in shootouts in 2014-15
- Detroit: 4-10 (100 points)
- 2-5 in 2015-16 (93 points)
- Boston: 4-10 (96 points)
- 4-2 in ’15-16 (93 points)
- Philadelphia: 3-11 (84 points)
- 3-8 in ’15-16 (96 points)
- Los Angeles: 2-8 (95 points)
- 2-3 in ’15-16 (102 points)
The teams who performed extremely well in shootouts in 2014-15 declined the following year: Their aggregate win percentage in these situations dropped from .745 to .600. By the way, that’s still a good win percentage. It actually makes me wonder if there might be some skill in shootouts after all. Nonetheless, these five teams regressed by an average of close to 10 points.
For the teams that had a win percentage below .350 in shootouts, there wasn’t as much of a boost as I would’ve expected. Their total win percentage only increased from .246 to .405, and their point totals improved by roughly 3 points as well. That’s still noteworthy, but it’s certainly the least important relationship I have mentioned.
Before I finally get to my predictions for the upcoming season, here are the teams to keep an eye on regarding their overtime performance:
Most overtime losses in 2015-16
- Carolina: 16
- Philadelphia: 14
- Nashville: 14
- Vancouver: 13
- MIN, ANA, BUF, TOR, DET tied with 11
Fewest overtime losses in 2015-16
- Colorado: 4
- Tampa Bay: 5
- Los Angeles: 6
- San Jose: 6
- Montreal: 6
Best shootout teams in 2015-16
- Colorado: 4-0
- Florida: 7-3
- Boston: 4-2
- Washington: 4-2
- Nashville: 4-2
Worst shootout teams in 2015-16
- Buffalo: 2-7
- Philadelphia: 3-11
- New Jersey: 2-6
- Detroit: 2-5
- Carolina: 2-5
Now it’s time for my predictions. Like I did with my NBA forecast, I’m going to run through the eight playoff teams in each conference, make playoff picks, and close by crowning a champion.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Many of Tampa’s key players suffered injuries last year, including Steven Stamkos. With better health, I like the Lightning to reclaim the Atlantic.
2
Florida Panthers
Florida performed very well in shootouts last year (7-3), so they could regress a tad next season. With that said, I trust their defense, which finished 7th in goals against in 2015-16.
3
Montreal Canadians
Simply put, if Carey Price comes back healthy Montreal will be back in the playoffs.
Metropolitan
1
Washington Capitals
Washington won’t put up 120 regular season points again–but they are still the best bet to win the Metro because isn’t Washington always at their best in the regular season?
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
I think there’s a chance Pittsburgh has a Stanley Cup hangover. There’s a reason why you don’t see teams repeat in the NHL: It’s very difficult to come back the following season after playing an extra two months of brutal hockey. Plus, goalie Matt Murray had a great postseason, but who knows how he’ll hold up during his first full season as a starter?
3
New York Rangers
The Rangers are trending the wrong way. They are older and their defense is declining (only 13th in goals against last year after ranking third in 2014-15). With that said…Henrik Lundqvist.
Wild Cards
1
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers were one of the NHL’s worst overtime teams last year. On that basis, I think they’ll take another step forward after making the playoffs last year.
2
Boston Bruins
I’m biased.
Western Conference
Central
1
Chicago Blackhawks
Surprisingly, the Blackhawks have never been that good in the regular season (with the exception of the 2012-13 season). But I think each of the other teams in the Central have a few too many question marks, so I like Chicago to win this division.
2
Nashville Predators
I liked what I saw from Nashville in the postseason and I think P.K. Subban will be a boost to both their defense and their power play.
3
Dallas Stars
I’m on record: There’s no way Dallas has the best record in the West again. Too shaky defensively.
Pacific
1
Anaheim Ducks
I’m very high on the Ducks next year because I trust their defense: They were first in the NHL in goals against in 2015-16.
2
Los Angeles Kings
Aside from a fluky season in 2014-15, Jonathan Quick and the Kings are essentially a lock to make the playoffs every year, right?
3
San Jose Sharks
As I said with the Penguins, I could picture San Jose getting off to a slow start after a terrific run to the Finals. Nonetheless, they are certainly talented enough to make the playoffs.
Wild Cards
1
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are projected to improve based on how they severely underperformed last year based on their goal differential. Plus, they are underrated defensively.
2
St. Louis Blues
The Blues will take a step back after a deep playoff run last season. They lost a few too many key players in free agency, including goalie Brian Elliott.
Playoff Predictions
Quarters
over in Five
over in Five
over in Seven
over in Six
over in Six
over in Seven
over in Seven
over in Seven
Semis
over in Seven
overin Six
over in Six
over in Six
Eastern Finals
over in Six
Sooner or later, the Capitals have to at least breakthrough to the Finals. After all, on paper, I’d argue they are the best team in the NHL: They were second in goal scoring last year, second in goals against, their goalie–Braden Holtby–won the Vezina, they have Alex Ovechkin, their deep, etc. They will face stiff competition just to get to the conference finals once again, but I think they’ll get by Pittsburgh and then breeze past whoever comes out of the Atlantic side of the draw.
Western Finals
over in Six
Some things never change: The Blackhawks and Kings remain the most consistent teams in the NHL. But as for Chicago, I think they are starting to decline a bit. They’ve had to part ways with some key players like Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen and, statistically, they haven’t been as stout defensively. The Kings, on the other hand, have the best goalie in the Western Conference in Jonathan Quick and still have many of their core players from their last championship run. I’ll take them in a pick ’em over the Blackhawks.
Stanley Cup Finals
over in Seven
It’s been the year for Cleveland sports. It might even be the year for the Chicago Cubs. Why can’t it finally be the year for the Washington Capitals?
Logos courtesy of Sportslogos.net; Ovechkin photo courtesy of AP
