Passing Defenses
Honorable Mentions: New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams
5 Carolina Panthers
It will be interesting to see how much the Panthers pass defense declines in 2015 after losing Josh Norman. Largely due to his breakout season, the Panthers jumped from 10th in opponent yards per pass attempt 2014 to 2nd in 2015. I owe Carolina’s linebackers and secondary enough respect after such a dominant season to keep them in the top five, but with Norman gone they are unlikely to be as stingy in 2016.
4 Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s pass defense doesn’t look outstanding if you look only at opponent yards per pass attempt, where they ranked 11th in 2015. However, the Cardinals finished in the top five in passing defense according to Football Outsiders when adjusting for opponent strength as well as 4th in interceptions. They also have two of the NFL’s best pass defenders in Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu (assuming he’s healthy after a torn ACL).
3 Kansas City Chiefs
Thanks in large part to the emergence of Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters, the Chiefs finished 5th in passing defense according to DVOA, 3rd in opponent yards per pass attempt, 2nd in interceptions, and tied for first in pick-sixes. That pretty much justifies their case to belong at number three, right?
2 Seattle Seahawks
How can we not talk about the Legion of Boom when we’re discussing the NFL’s best passing defenses? Though the Seahawks secondary “slipped” a little in 2015 by finishing 5th in opponent yards per pass attempt, the fact that Seattle had finished in the top two in that category each of the previous three seasons makes their spot at number two on this list secure.
1 Denver Broncos
Of all the great units on both sides of the ball in the NFL, the Broncos pass defense is the very best. It starts with their ability to get after the quarterback with all-world rushers like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, which makes things extremely difficult for wide receivers who need to get open quickly when they have Pro Bowl corners like Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and safety T.J. Ward guarding them. From a statistical standpoint, Denver’s pass defense was head and shoulders above every other team’s according to Football Outsiders despite the fact that they played the league’s 4th toughest slate of offenses. With their key players from last year’s championship team still in tact, Denver will once again be a nightmare for quarterbacks to throw against.
Rushing Defenses
Honorable Mentions: Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Arizona Cardinals
Similar to their pass defense, Arizona’s run defense is much better than certain numbers would indicate. Though they only ranked 15th in opponent yards per rush attempt, the Cardinals front seven ranked 2nd in stopping the run when adjusting for opponent strength and game situation.
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were quietly tied with Denver for first in opponent yards per rush attempt. While they didn’t face the league’s toughest slate of offenses (31st according to Football Outsiders), Tampa Bay still deserves a spot in the top five.
3 Seattle Seahawks
Is there anything Seattle isn’t good at? Seriously: The Seahawks ranked near the top in every offensive category last year and they continue to rank very highly defensively. That includes their run defense, which finished 3rd in both DVOA and opponent yards per rush attempt.
2 Denver Broncos
One of the reasons the Broncos paid a guy like Von Miller big money is because he’s great at other things besides rushing the quarterback. Denver finished tied for first in opponent yards per rush attempt, which certainly played a role in their ability to force teams into difficult passing situations.
1 New York Jets
But of all the better run defenses in the league, the Jets were the best in 2015. They ranked roughly ten percentage points higher than any other team in the NFL last year according to DVOA, and even though they lost one of their better interior lineman in Damon Harrison during the offseason, the Jets are the league’s best run defense until proven otherwise.
Total Defenses
Honorable Mentions: Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams
5 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have both one of the league’s best pass defenses and best pass rushes (4th in sacks last year). They ended up finishing 6th in DVOA, but in terms of Weighted DVOA, which weighs later season performance a bit more heavily than early season contests, the Chiefs graded as the second best defense in the NFL.
4 New York Jets
Even though the Jets, by many accounts, have the league’s best run defense, many people believe the Jets are more known for their pass defense. While I’d argue that is a misconception, New York certainly has the AFC’s most well-rounded defense.
3 Carolina Panthers
Outside of Denver, the Panthers have as many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball as anyone. As an aside, I’d probably take Luke Kuechley as the first player to start my defense with. However, while Carolina should have a great defense again in 2016, as I said earlier, it remains to be seen how much the loss of Josh Norman affects them.
2 Seattle Seahawks
You know you’re a great when people are wondering what the problem is when you don’t finish with the league’s top rated defense, as many pundits were last year. Yet until Seattle really slips, they are the league’s second most intimidating defense.
1 Denver Broncos
This doesn’t really need to be explained, right? I mean, this team won the Super Bowl without a quarterback, essentially. I’ve been meaning to write an article on it for a while now, but I’d argue that Denver’s defense was the greatest in NFL history based on how stingy they were last year in a time when offenses have never been better. So, yeah, I’d say they are the best defense going into 2016.
Special Teams
Kick returns may be declining, but special teams is still a very important phase of the game. Just ask Buffalo Bills fans who haven’t gotten over Super Bowl XXV or talk to any Vikings fan about Blair Walsh.
5 Indianapolis Colts
Adam Vinatieri may be old, but he is still putting up great seasons for the Colts, as he finished 4th in FG percentage last year. Moreover, Pat McAfee graded out as both one of the league’s best punters and kickoff specialists in 2015.
4 New York Giants
The Giants ranked second in special teams according to Football Outsiders last year, largely because of Josh Brown and his league leading 93.8 field goal percentage.
3 Seattle Seahawks
Not only is Steven Hauschka one of the league’s most accurate kickers (3rd in FG% in 2015), but wide receiver/return specialist Tyler Lockett helped make Seattle one of the league’s most dangerous kick and punt return teams.
Also, has Seattle been on either of these lists already?
2 New England Patriots
It’s a shame people can’t forget Stephen Gostkowski’s key extra point miss in the AFC Championship game because he was the only kicker last year to make every one of his regular season PAT’s of those who attempted at least 50. In addition, the Patriots have some of the league’s highest graded returners according to Pro Football Focus in Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Keyshawn Martin. They also have arguably the league’s best special teams player in perennial Pro Bowler Matthew Slater.
1 Baltimore Ravens
According to both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus, the Ravens had the best special teams in 2015. Justin Tucker graded out as the league’s best kicker despite six misses, five of which were beyond 50 yards. Moreover, punter Sam Koch was ranked as the third best punter in terms of average field position and the Ravens as a team somehow managed to block a kick or punt in five straight games. For these reasons, Baltimore has the top special teams heading into this season.